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Why should we believe Nellas even survived the First Age? Most of Doriath's population was eradicated, given the Dwarven sack and the 2nd and 3rd Kinslayings. The Silmarillion says that the community at the Mouths of Sirion was "a mere gleaning" of the people of Doriath and Gondolin- the implication is that only a bare handful survived, like Elendil's refugees from Numenor - and that was before the Sons of Feanor rolled through.
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The entire plot of The Lord of the Rings could be said to turn on what Sauron didn’t know, and when he didn’t know it.
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