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Reading over this thread, I was intrigued by all the focus on how things would have changed if there was no attack at Parth Galen. But the actual big change happens much earlier: when Gandalf is not imprisoned by Saruman, but is free to return directly to the Shire once the Nazgul's mission becomes clear.
He would get back sometime in August, and if his goal is to protect Frodo and the Ring, his #1 best choice is to pull Frodo up onto his own horse and ride straight for Rivendell. Come September, Frodo is safe in the House of Elrond (with no companions!) while the Nine are still hunting for the Shire. They've exhausted the possibilities of the Vale of Anduin, and with no Wormtongue to point them in the right direction, they would... I guess try the far side of the mountains, on the assumption that Gollum probably met 'Baggins' while he was crossing the range? Which means they would reach the region of Rivendell on about the 23rd September.
Since this is still a novel, the Nine would feel that the Ring was in Rivendell (perhaps Bilbo steals it and puts it on), so Frodo's first encounter with the Shadow is when the Black Riders lay a siege of terror around Imladris. Glorfindel et al could drive off any they managed to chase down, but they're not likely to allow themselves to be caught against a river when they've got so much maneuvering space. And as soon as Sauron gets word of it, he's going to send them backup...
I think the only plan here is to slip Frodo out while the powers of Rivendell keep up the defence. The High Pass is impassable, and the open countryside south of Rivendell is, er, a terrible plan, so... they send him north with a single elf as guide (Gandalf has to stay - the Nine know he's there!). He can link up with the Rangers and the Sons of Elrond, who I think are out scouting at this point, and then try to sneak up through the Ettinmoors and old Angmar, pass north of Gundabad (out of which an army may well be marching south!), and journey east through the dragon-haunted wastes north of the Grey Mountains. It's not a terribly safe plan, but it may be the safest available, and it at least has the advantage of being unexpected.
This being a novel, I guess Frodo passes through Erebor and down the River Running, picking up and losing allies along the way. He'll eventually have to try and enter Mordor from the north - or maybe even the east! This version of the story probably requires him to ride a few horses...
You can twist even this version wildly just by changing some assumptions (maybe Gandalf and Saruman drive the Nazgul back from Rohan, and they never go west at all!). I think my point is that stories are fragile - the instant you make a change, it ripples against everything around it. Asking what would happen if the Fellowship didn't break, as if they'd still have formed, and still gone through Moria, is a bit like saying, "If Bilbo had never found the Ring, what would Frodo have thrown into Mount Doom?" - it misses all the differences that come before that point.
hS
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