Interesting essay.
I've never bought the idea of the Arkenstone being a Silmaril. Most of the reasons why not can be read here.
Also, wasn't Thranduil a Sindarin Elf, probably from Doriath? It is said in UT that he fashioned his halls after Menegroth, and I wouldn't think that likely if he'd never seen Thingol's home.
Assuming Thranduil had dwelt in Doriath before its ruin, I think the odds are for his having laid eyes on a Silmaril at some time. Therefore, he would know whether the Arkenstone was one, or just another supremely beautiful jewel.
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