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Seems like a strange discussion to be having on the heels of a game where a seer, a cobbler, and a seer-hinting wolf were all leaving intentional trails on Day 1 and the latter two attracted attention by doing so (albeit confused attention).
Is it ever scientific? Is it scientific late in the game when people track down wolves by cross-referenckng voter, death & suspicion lists? Context still matters. There's still a qualitative element to it, looking at posts, tone, hints, interactions. All that's happening from day 1: it's impossible to post without leaving a trail of some kind, and not posting long enough is evidence, too. Sounds silly, but without day 1 there is no day 2. You'd have a kill with no leads, essentially, just a smaller village with nothing to go on.
The baseline is the sum of all that player's past behavior, the other players, the entire history of barrowdowns werewolf, the platonic ideal of a post, meta stuff (even if we try to avoid it it flavors banter) etc. For instance, "Nilp always Nilps" or "Rikae firmly believes you can catch wolves by analyzing posts".
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