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Old 01-16-2012, 11:39 AM   #145
Shastanis Althreduin
Werewolf Psychic
 
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Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: In fire, water, earth, and air. But mostly water.
Posts: 2,832
Shastanis Althreduin is wading through snowdrifts on Redhorn.Shastanis Althreduin is wading through snowdrifts on Redhorn.Shastanis Althreduin is wading through snowdrifts on Redhorn.Shastanis Althreduin is wading through snowdrifts on Redhorn.
As has been said, it looks like laying odds that Nog was taken out while it was safe to do so is probably what happened.

Going through Day 2 thus far now -

Quote:
Originally Posted by Boro
That is what has me worried the most at the moment...that is there seems to be a lot of "Agan and Boro are probably both innocent" going around. It could easily be true, of course, but that seems to be the same conclusion everyone's reached, which is kind of strange...Agan, what do you think?
That does have me concerned, to be honest. Could be just that I'm me and you're you, though.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Glirdan
I dont know about that one. I'm more inclined to agree with Boro. I mean, with the exception of Nate, we all know how dangerous an innocent/gifted Noggy is to the Wolves. Its already been said: why him? Well, it was a pretty traceless kill for them. Yet the same could be said had it been myself, or Shasta or any of the other quiet ones. I feel a nervous pack would have been a little more hesitant in their kill selection which also leads me to believe that the Wolves want us to think this way. For all we know, either you yourself dear sallycake or Boro or maybe even both could have been the ones planning this during the night to help steer the conversation in the direction you so choose.
Eh? I'm not really sure what you're saying here, because it looks like you're agreeing with Boro in one breath and then suspecting him in the next.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Glirdan
However, there are others who voted for G55 who need to be looked at it....or in Shasta's case, need to be heard from.
*raises eyebrow* Really now.

I'm going to ignore that comment for now, save for one of my own about stones and glass houses, and focus on your theory regarding Lottie - which is interesting; however it doesn't look any different to me than normal D1 Lottie when there's nothing yet to go on. In fact, I've seen worse from Lottie than "jumpiness" (generally something to do with something someone posted in IC.)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Inzil
I don't really see the benefit of trying to gauge the "nervousness' of the pack from their Night-kill. I think it's enough that it seems very unlikely Nog could have been seen as a potential Seer. Thus, there is little to gain at this point by still focusing on the issue.
This is an issue I have every game - I don't understand why people decide not to look at the information that's right in front of them. Nogrod was chosen to be killed for some reason - why not make use of that information?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Inzil
It's worth noting again how quickly Nate/Pom (did we ever decide on which nick was the favorite?) has gotten the hang of this. Could be a sign of a sharp, natural player, but a more sinister reason has to be at least considered.
This is probably one of the more specious reasons I've seen for suspecting someone. However, it's generally a given that a newbie is considered "hard to lynch" in their first game, so I don't really see Inzilawolf making an effort to lynch an innocent Nate. Still.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nate[/quote
Shastanis Althreduin votes for G55 for her habit of trying to move the conversation away from herself. This is the only observation she makes. Says she won’t vote for Rune, saying she agrees with what he said without further defining why.
Heh. It's actually "he".

Quote:
Originally Posted by Boro
But I know they're also frustrating for wolves, because if you don't say anything, than wolves can't twist anything to make it look bad. See, me, it's easy. If the wolves really wanted to get me lynched I'm sure they can find a bunch of stuff to manipulate and use against me...the trouble is I bombard with long and fanciful posts, it's overwhelming and usually not worth the effort. Much easier to continue the "sally and Bom need to say more" argument...when in fact you know

1) They won't

leading to...

2) Easier to convince innocents to lynch 'em
I don't know that I agree with this - generally that leads to...

3) Deciding "we can't afford to waste a lynch on a submarine - if they win they don't deserve it" and moving on.
__________________
Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV
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