[Nogrod]

It is always nice to see that when our fellows at the TTN fare badly they try to move the eye away from their own shortcomings. Such an unprofessional move - and so predictable. But what the TTN suggests is preposterous enough to merit a disclaimer.

Now the TTN claims that the AKM has fallen victim into the "sexy team" fallacy and distorts the view - that while the stats are even the AKM says Erebor is better with a "deceptive slight of hand", which they also state is an intentional act on behalf of the AKM.

Now that is an insult both to the objectivity and the professionality of the way the AKM works.

Funnily enough, they quote the important part in it's entirety when trying to mock us (unlike in some presidential elections in some randon 7th age places), but still are not able to see what is said there - probably being too happy to go for anything that could divert the attention away from their own shortcomings.

So what the AKM said? Let's quote it one again - with our bolding & underlining.

Originally Posted by The AKM

Let’s start with the forwards: Glorfindel (4+2) and Smaug (4+1) seem neck to neck in effectivity, but The Witch King has played a bit under the expectations (3+1, though). Meanwhile Bard the Bowman (3+0) has risen from nowhere while Thranduil (1+3) is their passing genius. So far from Eriador being stronger the numbers suggest the teams are quite even in their attack. And in the last two games Erebor’s attack has looked like the deadlier one indeed.

Now the AKM started their article by saying that had we been asked before the tournament which team would win, we would have said Eriador. But now the stats seem to tell the teams are actually even: a thing TTN makes a lot of fuzz while the AKM actually stresses the same point a few times as well, even making the following starting line for a summary:

Originally Posted by The AKM

Now the stats are so close and both teams are top quality ones, so it will not be an easy game to predict

But we also said, that even if the overall stats are even, the Erebor offence looks the more deadly right now. That is according to the last two games - it is said quite openly there. In those Eriador won Doriath 2-1 and Minas Tirith 1-0, while Erebor beat Imladris 3-0 and managed to score 2-2 against FC Valinor (and winning with penalties - which means their scoring was in a sense better than FC Valinor's!!!).

The AKM is ready and willing to engage in an argument where TTN tries to argue how and why Eriador's forwards-performance in their last two games looks better - or even as good - as that of Erebor.

Anyway. In the end - like already quoted, the AKM came to the conclusion that the stats are so close and both teams are top quality that it is hard to predict. The AKM actually continued from there with this:

Originally Posted by The AKM

if forced to say which team has the edge we’d say it is Erebor. Eriador might have tougher defence than FC Valinor but they’re galaxies away from their* offence – and if Erebor managed to keep FC Valinor at bay for almost 90 minutes, they should have no problem keeping Glorfindel from scoring.

The AKM predicts:

Erebor wins 1-0 (or 2-1 extra-time)

We see no reason to change that prediction or the grounds on which it is made.

* In case the address of the pronoun "their" was unclear, it is naturally FC Valinor (and not Erebor). We are also happy to counter TTN's possible argument that Eriador's offence is better than FC Valinor's - or that it isn't far inferior compared to it.




As an offshoot, now as we speak on TTN's incompetent journalism...

Originally Posted by The TTN

There's just something about Real Valinor we don't like. They seem to be a bit more inconsistant than a solid well rounded playoff team. Particularly the defense, which has conceded the most goals of the teams remaining and AC Beleriand has a triple threat attack that can make mincemeat of any defense

Being not experts on some areas of the Arda is no excuse for a Arda-wide journal! If you don't know, then find out and learn! Or stand back and accept the position of a small community-level wannabe-journalists... This is Arda Cup!

And what is TTN's argument (or gut feeling if they really don't have a clue)?

Originally Posted by TTN

There's just something about Real Valinor we don't like. They seem to be a bit more inconsistant than a solid well rounded playoff team. Particularly the defense

Something? Inconsistant? Particularly the defence?

Let us remind the readers about Real Valinor's performance.

After losing to FC Valinor 0-3 (which is bad, and they lost to them twice - on the other hand FC Valinor is the only team they have lost to in the whole tournament) they have made such a play: 2-1 against Tirion (even FC Valinor allowed two against Tirion), 2-1 against Armenelos, 2-0 against The Sea, 2-0 against Rohan...

The AKM sees no inconsistency or problems in defence but a solid performance against some of the best teams there are.

Nevertheless our prediction of the outcome of the game was and is more or less the same TTN has. But looking at the grounds by which they reach their conclusion is just a sorry wittness to their sad state of unprofessional journalism.