[the phantom]

Handicapping the Groups
A MESPN Football Round Table Report

GROUP A

Armenelos (95)
GK Tar Atanamir (10)
DF Tar Calmacil (7)
DF Tar Palantir (7)
DF Tar Telperien (7)
MF Ar Gimilzor (7)
MF Tar Telemmaite (7)
MF Tar Miriel (7)
MF Tar Ancalimon (7)
MF *Elros (12)
FW Ar Adunakhor (12)
FW Ar Pharazon (12)

MESPN Take: Per usual, the squad from Numenor has no weakness to speak of. While their top talent is not as flashy as others, they’re tall, strong, fast, efficient, and intelligent. The only way the other teams in their group score well on them is if Bombadil, Earendil, or Arien have an epic game, which of course they are capable of. That means Armenelos must be prepared to put up 3 in one of their games if they want to win them all. Their front three are all capable of putting the ball in the net, but in particular the defense of Valimar won’t make it easy.

The Barrow-Downs (50)
GK Alien (2)
DF Lumpkin (2)
DF GwathWight (3)
DF River Woman (3)
DF Barrow-Wight (11)
MF WilWight (3)
MF Lalwende MP (3)
MF Goldberry (3)
MF Hookbill (6)
FW Saucepan Man (6)
FW *Bombadil (8)

MESPN Take: This team is nicely improved from previous years. River Woman and Goldberry have nice touch, and Bombadil is always a threat to beat any defense. BWight will lead the defense, but with some of the attackers featured in this group The Downs will likely need to score 2 to win or more likely draw. SPM and Hookbill have both shown promise, so they need to show up and work with Bombadil (who needs to show up consistently as well).

The Havens (79)
GK Amandil (6)
DF Annael (5)
DF Imrazor (5)
DF Ar Zimrathan (8)
DF Olwe (10)
MF Eriol (5)
MF Mithrellas (3)
MF Earwen (3)
MF Falastur (9)
MF Cirdan (10)
FW *Earendil (15)

MESPN Take: They advanced out of a tough group last year, so they certainly have a shot this year. Their defense is intelligent and solid, but they can’t be asked to entirely contain Arien or Bombadil. Earendil, Cirdan and friends must match goals at their end, and they’re athletic enough to do so in head-to-head matchups with the defenders in this group.

Valimar (102)
GK *Manwe (14)
DF Amarie (4)
DF Este (8)
DF Vana (8)
DF *Namo (14)
MF Elenwe (3)
MF Ilmare (8)
MF Vaire (8)
MF Irmo (9)
MF Ingwe (11)
FW *Arien (15)

MESPN Take: Most football publications will likely list Valimar as the slim favorites in Group A, thanks to a proven scorer arriving to balance out their defensive commitment. If Manwe can use Arien, Ingwe and Irmo intelligently without sacrificing their effective defense then they’ll be tough to beat, though Earendil and Bombadil may require too much attention to turn the offense loose.

The MESPN Forecast: Valimar perhaps has the greatest upside if they can get firing on all cylinders, but singular talents will test their back line, while their middle (Elenwe, Ilmare, Vaire) might get outdone by Armenelos. Armenelos is probably the most dependable squad- they never go down easily, so they might be the safest bet. The Havens gets edged out in overall pedigree most likely, but if they outplay the opposition by a bit, or teams don’t handle their attack with enough care, that could easily flip the scales. The Barrow-Downs remains the longest shot, but with a flashing performance by Bombadil it isn’t outside the realm of possibility that they’ll advance this year.

Armenelos- 70%
Valimar- 60%
Havens- 50%
Barrow-Downs- 20%

GROUP B

AC Beleriand (108)
GK Marach (9)
DF Imlach (4)
DF Rochallor (4)
DF Balrog #4 (12)
DF *Fingolfin (15)
MF Denethor (3)
MF Ulrad (5)
MF Angrod (10)
MF Aegnor (10)
FW Eol (15)
FW **Feanor (21)

MESPN Take: Last year’s semifinalist will likely be the popular pick to advance first. Feanor-led offenses always do well, and working with Eol, Angrod and Aegnor this year should be no different. Perhaps only the athletes and defensive commitment of Dwarves United can slow their offense in this group. AC is very solid at the rear too, but they’ll have to bring their best against Inter and Gondolin, which both feature elite attacks.

Inter Beleriand (81)
GK Turgon (11)
DF Haldad (2)
DF Gorlim (2)
DF Baragund (3)
DF Luthien (13)
MF Forweg (2)
MF Hunthor (2)
MF Haleth (7)
MF *Beren (13)
FW Fingon (13)
FW *Maedhros (13)

MESPN Take: Inter will perpetually be looking to feed it to their dangerous attack, but the athletes on AC and Dwarves United will provide a stiff challenge to the scorers. At the back they have Turgon in goal and Luthien defending, so they can hamstring at least one opposing scorer and save a good shot every game, but AC and Gondolin have enough weapons to demand more of a defense.

Dwarves United (86)
GK Galadriel (14)
DF Azaghal (5)
DF Durin (6)
DF Aule (16)
DF *Celebrimbor (18)
MF Fili (2)
MF Kili (2)
MF Gamil Zirak (4)
MF Telchar (4)
MF Gimli (5)
FW Legolas (10)

MESPN Take: Now with Galadriel behind Aule and Celebrimbor their defense is able to handle nearly anyone so long as they’re committed to it. The crafty Telchar and Zirak will need to create offense, and Legolas will need to be a sharp-shooter when he gets his opportunities. Celebrimbor and Aule are dangerous scorers on set plays and PKs etc. , but if they have to take too big a hand in the offense, the defense will suffer.

Gondolin (84)
GK Rog (8)
DF Penlod (7)
DF Aranwe (3)
DF Galdor (5)
DF Egalmoth (7)
MF Salgant (4)
MF Elemmakil (4)
MF Duilin (8)
MF Idril (10)
FW Tuor (10)
FW *Maeglin (18)

MESPN Take: The “keen-boot” Maeglin has proven himself as a top-scorer, and he has a quality supporting cast this year which means only a complete defensive commitment or multiple elite defenders can keep them off the scoreboard. At the back they’re not elite, but at least they don’t have weak links in front of Rog. Inter and AC can throw multiple high-scorers at them, so they’ll probably have to outscore them.

The MESPN Forecast: AC will be the popular pick to finish first, and if talent alone wins out then they will. But with Maedhros/Fingon/Beren and Maeglin/Tuor/Idril in the group, there’s the potential to get nipped in a high-scoring contest if the breaks don’t go their way. And as Dwarves United proved last year, they can’t be written off, and if they win themselves an early lead they can muddy the game up with the best of them. Between Gondolin and Inter it may just be a toss up, as these two look remarkably similar.

ACBeleriand- 85%
InterBeleriand- 45%
Gondolin- 45%
Dwarves United- 25%

GROUP C

Doriath (70)
GK Dior (7)
DF Galathil (2)
DF Nimloth (2)
DF Elwing (6)
DF *Melian (14)
MF Galadhon (2)
MF Nellas (3)
MF Saeros (3)
MF Daeron (7)
MF *Elwe (14)
FW Mablung (10)

MESPN Take: As always Melian will lead the defense, and her girdle ups everyone’s performance. But with the sheer attacking power of Hithlum and the skill of the defending champs Real, Melian will need some help. Mablung proved himself at the forward last year, and Elwe’s height and power will give defenses a worry, but their ultimate success will depend on the rest of the midfield getting them chances. All three opponents have good athletes at the back.

Hithlum (101)
GK Huor (8)
DF Galdor (5)
DF Arroch (2)
DF Gundor (5)
DF Balrog #5 (13)
MF Aradan (3)
MF Morwen (6)
MF Hador (12)
MF *Beleg (13)
FW Hurin (14)
FW **Turin (20)

MESPN Take: A Balrog and Arroch in front of Huor gives the defense more bite this year, but the focal point remains the offense, with four different players that know how to put the ball in the net. Shire-Bree can try to blunt it somewhat with a Nazgul/Gildor/Fellbeast/Shadowfax, and Real has Nienna/Ingwion/Tilion/Nahar (and even Tulkas behind them), so Hithlum can’t just trample this group with scoring.

Shire-Bree United (68)
GK Halbarad (5)
DF Fellbeast (2)
DF Nazgul #4 (8)
DF Gildor (7)
DF *Shadowfax (5)
MF Butterbur (2)
MF Bandobras (4)
MF Ferny (2)
MF Nazgul #6 (8)
MF *Gandalf (14)
FW Khamul (11)

MESPN Take: They have a solid defense with diverse skill-sets, so they’ll be well equipped to stop scoring when they commit to it. It’ll be tougher to get on the board with BWight, Aragorn and Bombadil gone, but Gandalf adds some threat back. More than likely he’ll see a lot of extra attention from Hithlum’s Balrog, Doriath’s Melian, and Ingwion of Real, so the surrounding Nazgul will have to come through and make defenses respect the whole offense.

Real Valinor (101)
GK *Tulkas (12)
DF Nienna (10)
DF Nahar (5)
DF Ingwion (5)
DF *Tilion (12)
MF Quennar (3)
MF Enerdhil (4)
MF Nessa (10)
FW Nerdanel (12)
FW *Miriel (14)
FW Orome (14)

MESPN Take: The defending champs are hoping Orome is a good swap out with Arien, and he should provide a good target for Miriel and Nerdanel. Their fast-moving precision passing game may work best against the defenses in this group. They’re solid at the rear in all positions, but Hithlum particularly has a plethora at talent to run at them, so they can’t just focus on one or two threats as with Shire-Bree and Doriath.

The MESPN Forecast: It’s difficult not to pick the defending champs- they’re a proven commodity, and they don’t appear to have gotten worse in the offseason (or if they have- not much). They just look solid up and down, accented by excellent individual talents. With the goal-scoring threat that they are Hithlum will likely be the popular pick to finish second, but Shire-Bree advanced last year, and if their defense can pitch a good game and they convert on set plays and the like, they could definitely pull an upset. Doriath advanced last year as well, and though Beleg has gone over to Hithlum, they have Elwe to replace his scoring. So similar to Shire-Bree, they are capable of knocking off a favorite.

Real Valinor- 75%
Hithlum- 65%
Shire-Bree United- 30%
Doriath- 30%

GROUP D

Barad-Dur (74)
GK Grishnakh (5)
DF Fellbeast #1 (3)
DF Fellbeast #2 (3)
DF Pallando (11)
DF Alatar (11)
MF Sangahyando (3)
MF Herumor (3)
MF Angamaite (3)
MF Beruthiel (5)
FW Castamir (7)
FW *Sauron (20)

MESPN Take: Sauron has brought up the defense this year. Against the in-group competition the Blue Wizards should perform well and Fellbeasts can be handy for getting back quickly, but they might be more useful against dragons than an offense like FC. At the front Sauron is enough to make any offense a threat, but FC has Eonwe and Maglor at the back to provide respectable matchups for him, so the rest of the offense must support well and help him gain a mismatch.

Gondor (70)
GK Imrahil (5)
DF Galadil (4)
DF Earnil I (6)
DF Eldarion (5)
MF Calimehtar (5)
MF Ciryandil (5)
MF Turambar (6)
MF Meneldil (6)
MF Romendacil (7)
MF *Anarion (12)
FW Eldacar (9)

MESPN Take: Some refer to Gondor as “Armenelos Lite”, and there is perhaps justification. Similar to their forefathers, their strength lies in their across the board consistency, size, and strength, and sound fundamentals. Anarion was a standout scorer last year, and Eldacar as an athlete is a cut above many of his teammates, so with even support behind them they will threaten Barad-Dur and Isengard. With FC’s defenders however they’ll have to take some risks. At the back their team strategy and soundness may be able to shut down BDur and Isen, as they both feature a singular focus (Sauron and Saruman), but again FC will be problematic.

Isengard (66)
GK Ugluk (5)
DF Mauhur (3)
DF Beechbone (3)
DF Treebeard (10)
MF Lurtz (3)
MF Wulf (2)
MF Lugdush (3)
MF Nazgul #5 (8)
MF Wormtongue (4)
MF *Saruman (15)
FW Quickbeam (10)

MESPN Take: Saruman is a danger both to score and to be crafty and create for others, and he’s got a big target in Quickbeam. The newly added Nazgul will add a solid supporter for the offense, and Wormtongue too is a sneaky distributor. Against Gondor and BDur they won’t be straight up overmatched, but they cannot make mistakes. FC will take a very special effort. At the back their ents will be nice for defending corners and the like, but in the open field they’ll be susceptible to FC, and Sauron. Their midfield will have to get back quick, or just stay back in some situations.

FC Valinor (107)
GK *Huan (15)
DF Thorondor (13)
DF Indis (7)
DF Maglor (10)
DF *Eonwe (12)
MF Elemmire (4)
MF Findis (4)
MF Argon (7)
MF *Yavanna (10)
FW Celegorm (11)
FW *Curufin (14)

MESPN Take: Huan is the best keeper in the group, and the four in front of him is also the most talented, so barring a lapse they will be tough to score on. In some groups shutouts might be easier to come by, but a shutout of Sauron or Saruman can’t be guaranteed. On offense their front four is the same as last year- and we know they can score- but with Irmo and Indis gone from the midfield solid squads like Gondor might have a better chance at denying Curufin and pals possession. On breakaways they’ll be able to straight up outrun most of Isen and Gondor but not BDur.

The MESPN Forecast: Well yes, if FC plays up to potential they’re the favorite here. For the other spot Gondor and BDur have an edge over Isengard, but if Saruman gets hot or if the opposition gets carded they are capable of getting in. Between Gondor and BDur it may be a tossup, and perhaps their margins of victory/loss against the others will be the tiebreaker, in which case BDur has the edge because of Sauron’s scoring touch- plus can he really be eliminated early consecutively?

FC Valinor- 90%
Barad-Dur- 45%
Gondor- 40%
Isengard- 25%

(groups E through H to follow)