Okay, I just spent like an hour by analysing the votes, so I'm gonna do this first. But before that, regarding
Form's death...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark
Obviously they voted Sally which for me is a predicament. I do think her initial post of “around but tired” then just a non commital “no vote vote no time” post. I find that frustrating and easily a wolffish submarine tactic. HOWEVER, the night kill obvious points at Sally which makes me think it’s too obvious it’s her and therefor not her. But also it could be a move set on making that argument and it IS her.
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This actually is a thought process I can more or less follow and agree with. But I even more agree with
Boro on that obviously, the WWs would be interested in getting rid of the Seer first. That - unless they are acting in some really unorthodox manner - basically means that a) they thought
Form was the Seer, or b) by way of negation there was nobody they thought more likely to be the Seer. Which is something to consider too.
Otherwise: voting. Okay, let's have the list for convenience:
Kath > Morsul
Greenie > Pitch
Morsul > hS
Lommy > hS [2]
Legate > Greenie
Huinesoron > Greenie [2]
Form > Sally
Boro > Lottie
Lottie > Greenie [3]
Sally > no vote (thus making it clear at this point that her vote wasn't following)
Pitch > hS [3]
(not voted: Soriman)
It is quite interesting that the first couple of votes (
Kath's for
Morsul and
Greenie's for
Pitch) were eventually completely forgotten. From purely analytical point of view, in the small numbers in the village, I think we actually had a "healthy spread" of votes (meaning, not just one huge bandwagon for one person, and not even two bandwagons - there were two, but "big" here meant three votes, and there were votes for four completely different people still).
I actually think this is "healthy" in the sense that it does not show the, hum hmm, "herd mentality", and individual votes are more... well, individual; therefore saying more about those who cast them. That is not to say that the spread does not make it an ideal place for throwaway votes.
Kath and
Greenie voted early, so it was hardly throwaway; in fact, with
Morsul being discussed,
Kath might have expected him to gather more. The follow-up possibility is that if one of the first voted (i.e.
Morsul or
Pitch) was a Wolf, the steering away from these completely later might have been the result of a specific effort of other Wolves to steer clear of one or them (or, in the most extreme case, both).
Under this model, there are lots of singular votes that by themselves do not say much except that they are still creating alternatives (and at the same time are potentially throwaway). Whom I would put under scrutiny are actually the people who made the second votes, thus making the bandwagons roll (
Lommy and
Hui, with the added value that
Hui was acting clearly with the bonus to prevent a wagon against himself - the question of course being that he could have equally well voted for
Morsul or
Pitch, if it was just about that). Either of them could have acted as Wolves protecting one of
Morsul or
Pitch (who had votes from before) by supporting bandwagons for somebody else.
Also knowing
Greenie being innocent,
Lottie's vote which "sealed the deal" might have been a way of
Lotwolf to save a fellow
Huiwolf from the noose. But I think a scenario where
Hui and
Lottie are both Wolves who voted in order to save
Hui would be almost to good to be true. Of course, it is perfectly possible. But
Lottie doing this specifically in order to save
Hui requires multiple premises to be true first.
Interestingly enough, purely based on vibe when looking at the list of votes,
Pitch's vote strikes me as rather sinister because he had his opinions, then voted for
Hui. And that was at the point when
Greenie was leading, and
Soriman was left to vote (with it not being sure whether he will). So
Pitch's vote was potentially throwaway (if e.g. again the scenario that
Hui was a Wolf was true - he would no longer endanger a packmate and at the same time distance himself from him) and at the same time not getting his "hands dirty" in lynching an innocent.
The one visibly "throwaway" vote is
Boro's (and
Form's would be too), posted at the time when there were two "bandwagons" (the quotation marks are intentional, because they were two votes large at that point - on the other hand, again, like I said, in a village of this size that is already something...) and multiple other votes he could have tied for 2, and not so many people left to vote that one could reasonably assume casting one vote for
Lottie would get her lynched. So, yes, that is one thing that raises my alertness when it comes to
Boro.
That is more or less it when it comes to the votes.
With all this being said, I think that the words of
Form from yesterDay have quite a big of merit and I would consider looking at those who were (or are) quieter and slipping under the radar. It is good to see
sally around and posting, I hope also more will follow from
Soriman.
More thoughts later, I will be back. *cue in Terminator theme*