[Legate of Amon Lanc]

As I promised, my analysis on Brinniel.

And please folks forgive if this post looks stupid to you. I was making it mainly for myself, so I did not bother with giving it a complex and easily readable form.

DAY 1
#15
Has nothing to say. says even innocent-seeming and newbies should be watched.

#20
After being criticised by Nogrod for saying nothing, says she at least said something.

#22
Tells Rikae that using vote such as that is a waste.
This far, nothing suspicious to me at all. From the following posts, there could be something that could be ambivalent, but you'll see.

#29
Analysis of all who have posted that far. Mac was not among them, so I'm skipping that now (you can look at it yourselves). Names three possibilities why Rikae acted as he acted.

#42
Quotes and disagrees with Mac. This seems very innocentish to me. Has to go, votes Rikae. Then she says that controversial thing about Rikae. Or: the thing that several people thought suspicious. I don't think so. What she said does not seem actually in any way innormal. Says Nog is her second suspect.

Overall, on Day 1, she puts everything in a very calm way and no way raises suspicion for me. This could also mean that she is a very careful balrog. But since there is no evidence in the beginning, I cannot accuse her of anything.

DAY 2
#99
Says Nog is making far more sense that Day. In this post, she explains one thing about Mac (instead of letting him do that, but many people do that, including me) but quite logically, from my point of view. Tries to clear things between her and Nog (why she suspected him).
This could be trying to side with Nog. But if she's a balrog, why? Had she realized that TM is the Seer after what he said and that he dreamt of Nog? But her defense of Mac is very mild, in fact, I wouldn't even call it a defense.

#106
Analyzes a few people, from my POV nothing worth mentioning. Only says that Nog has good points about Mac, but is wary of the possibility of rallying masses - tactics from him. She tends to agree with me, which could be somewhat suspicious (picking the good horses), but otherwise nothing suspicious here to me. Does not like TM is so quick to bandwagon against Mac. Says Mac does not feel like typical Mac and is too defensive.
Here she starts to be suspicious about Mac. Not suspicious at that moment.

#110
Only helps to clear up some rules.

#122
A list of whom she finds suspicous, at least partially: Mac, Nog (keeps switching thoughts on him), Kath for her attitude to Nog, TM for bandwaggoning, Gil for two safe-votes in two days.

#135
Says she'll vote for Mac or TM, whom she does not want to simply leave as I did.

#143
Says Mac is most probably a desperate balrog (and that me and TM being a master and an apprentice is a really scary idea).
Now this may be, if she were a balrog, that she already dropped Mac as a collateral damage.

#145
Says we cannot spread votes anymore (Mac 3, Gil 2, Nerwen 1, TM 2). Mac or Might?
Does not know whom to choose. Now, if she's a balrog, getting TM lynched would be nice, especially if she knows he's a seer. But, that would also get her suspicious. Could it be that this post was a vanguard of the post that was about to come? That would make sense for a balrog.

#149
Votes TM in the very last second. Note, this would not save Mac unless someone else voted (and also it did not - it was the last vote that day, 2 minutes before DL). A balrog could have hoped to save a comrade this way if someone appeared in the last minutes. It could be that Brinn, if she were a balrog, could have waited if she could safely vote for Mac or that she did not know what to do and in the last second tried to desperately save Mac? The former looks too complicated on me. I think Mac's co-balrog would have acted with more sureness, either for Mac or TM, but no need to prolongate this pondering. Only whether she was waiting for something to happen.

#152
(xed with Lommy's stop post) Sees that it did not make much difference.

I am going to stop here on posts #145 and #149. First, Brinn says "I don't know. Mac or Might?" Then Mac votes for TM, making the votes for TM 2. Then Brinn votes TM.

Now, this is what troubles me, for this can be balrogish. Let's see this scenario: Start of Day 2. TM says he suddenly switched his opinion on Nogrod. Brinn concludes he is the Seer and Nog innocent. She sides with Nog. People start to go for Mac. She is prepared to leave him die, but as she sees suspicion against TM, sees an opportunity to lynch the Seer (or if she did not realize his role, then at least opportunity to lynch an innocent instead of Mac. But the Seer thing would be more logical, as we'll see - it's a stronger reason). She's waiting whether to vote Mac or TM: if she votes Mac, she can be the one to seal the fate of her comrade - she does not want to abandon hope. But if she votes in the way that it saves Mac from the gallows, then she will be definitely suspicious. But if she's sure that she lynches the Seer AND saves her friend, I'd say that's worth it. She really does not want to spread votes anymore: she wants everyone to vote Gil or TM, if possible. And she does not know yet how Mac is going to vote. Then, when she sees Mac voting for TM, she decides and votes also in hope that someone else joins the cause, saving Mac from gallows.
That's just a scenario, however. I don't know whether it's plausible. There are other good reasons why she acted how she did - simply, because she was indeed undecided.

Let's move on:
DAY 3
#179
Says it's obvious that TM dreamt of Nog on night 2, as only that makes sense (with this I agree). Speaks about several people, including myself, to the situation. Agrees with me on Nerwen.

#187
Speaks about Nerwen, the new thing she adds to what I said are some things about Nerwen's analysis of Volo and her "accusing her accuser" (me).

#189
Clears up things to Naria (about TM's dreams - I said the same thing also as I overlooked it). Clears up some other things about Gil (who said she was defending Mac), replies to Shasta... Says that it's good to see the "enigmas" are more vocal, probably out of fear of modkill.

#193
Says Nerwen's defensive behavior resembles Mac's yesterDay.

In these last posts, she openly sides with me against Nerwen. Again, this can be the "betting on a good horse", now hoping (as a balrog) that by siding with me she wins the day.

So, Brinn, if you are a balrog, I give you the permission to burst with evil laughter now. I am not decided on you being too suspicious.