[Nogrod]

The AKM ranking consists of the following factors.

1) The first value is that of w/l quite straight and thus real but not reliable as the teams have faced different level of opponents and have played the games more or less seriously. Still we thought a real stat should be involved in our power-ranking.

The final value is a result from three categories (1 to 32): wins/draws/losses, goals scored, and goals allowed.

2) The second value is a kind of ranked success or failure value. A short explanation might be in place here as we think that is at the same time the most important and the most vulnerable of our stats.

The AKM gave the teams an initial ranking (1 to 32) which was published on this thread earlier. That ranking was based on the salaries – as there was little to go on but the renown of the players besides that, and well, numbers are always numbers.

But the AKM’s twist there was that we took the five most attacking players (five on the bottom of the roster) and gave the forwards the value of their salary and the midfielders within that five 75% of their salary to represent the force of their attack. On defence we took the top-five players (GK not included) from the roster, taking the defenders at their “face-value” and the MF:s on 75%. Then we added to the defence value the GK as times three, as we consider the value of a good goalie that important (and it is only one player in comparison to five DF/MF). Finally we leveled the two stats making them even scoped so that both best offence and best defence got the value of 99. Those stats (attacking & defending) were then combined to make the initial power-ranking list (1 to 32).

The first friendlies were then ranked using that initial board of power. So winning the top team would give the team 32 points and winning the worst team 1 point. Playing a draw would give the team half of the “ranking-points” aka. drawing with team #1 would give 16 points. Losing a team would then be just the mirror image of winning aka. losing to the best team would mean -1 points and losing to the weakest team would mean -32 points. To not make individual friendlies affect the ranking too much, we decided to halve the points both ways (so losing to the team #32 would mean not getting -32 but -16 points, playing even with the #1 would not mean 32:2=16, but 16:2=8) and adding to them the then current ranking of the team itself (1 to 32) we came up with the new ranking.

Fex. on the first round of friendlies AC Beleriand (ranked 9. by “off-def –spread salaries” explained above) won Inter Beleriand (ranked 22.). That meant that AC Bel got 11 points (Inter is 11 seats from the bottom) and Inter gained -9 points (losing to the team ranked 9th). Adding half of that number to their then current ranking number led to AC having 5½ (half from 11) plus 24 (being the 9th. aka 24th from bottom) = 29½, which actually raised them two seats to the 7th place. Inter in turn was having -4½ (half from -9) plus 11 (being the 22nd aka 11th from the bottom) = 6½, actually dropping them four seats to 26.

3) The last value is once again a real-stat combined of four different areas of the teams’ performances: two defencive stats and two offencive stats.The defencive stats (1 to 32) are the goalie’s saving percentage and the number of shots the team has allowed on their goal. The offencive stats (1 to 32) are the effectiviness of the team’s shots aka. the ratio of goals scored vs. the total number of shots they make and the number of shots on goal they manage to deliver.


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The AKM acknowledges that the system is under construction and rather scetchy at this point. There might also be a few issues with the relative weight of the different categories, but they will be addressed as the tournament continues. But whatever the possible shortcomings at this stage are, it does give general directions we here in the AKM think are not without a merit.

Another issue is the nature of the friendlies which make every decent statistician’s head explode. The AKM will make a couple of notes how the rankings should or could be modified, because of the way the friendlies have been played, after the list below.

After the friendlies are over the AKM will come up with a modified and hopefully also more accurate ranking and a group by group analysis & a prediction as to their results.


1. (D) Real Valinor 83+76,5+94=253,5

2. (B) Eriador 77+73,5+83,5=234
3. (G) AC Beleriand 82+63+86=231
4. (D) FC Valinor 73+77,75+79,5=230,25

5. (F) Rohan 82+41½+97=220,5
6. (D) Armenelos 71+64,25+83=218,25
7. (E) Valimar 68+72,5+77=217,5

8. (C) Wilderland 68+56+78,5=202,5

9. (D) Tirion 65+46,75+71,5=183,25
10. (E) The Sea 51,5+54,75+74=180,25
11. (F) Imladris 64+46+68,5=178,5
12. (A) Angband 48,5+66,25+63=177,75

13. (C) Erebor 58+37,5+68=163,5
14 (G) Anfaughlith 44,5+56,5+60=161
15. (H) Gondor 48,5+42,75+63=154,25
16. (E) Hithlum 50+37+62,5=150

17. (A) T-I-G 48,5+23,75+69,5=141,75
18. (B) Gondolin 50+37,5+51,5=139
19. (A) ShireBree Utd. 47,5+22+68=137,5

20. (G) Nargothrond 33+44,25+58=132,25
21. (F) Misty Mts. 51,5+14,75+64=130,25
22. (G) Doriath 35+27,25+67=129,25

23. (H) Mordor 51,5+3+61,5=116
24. (B) Inter Beleriand 42+14+58=114

25. (E) The Havens 28,5+23,5+57=109

26. (C) Dwarves Utd. 35+10+59,5=104,5
27. (H) Minas Tirith 28+21,5+48,5=98
28. (C) Anduin 28+21,25+48,5=97,75
29. (F) Isengard 29+15,5+52,5=97

30. (B) Arnor 18+8,75+46,5=73,25

31. (A) Downer 22,5-9+50,5=64
32. (H) Barad Dûr 18+0,25+41,5=59,75




A few notes by the AKM on where the ranking-list is not accurate because of the nature of the friendlies.

FC Valinor could have scored more in both their games and when they tighten their defence into the tournament mode they should be strong enough to even challenge Real Valinor for the top #1 place in the ranking (currently 4th).

AC Beleriand could have overrun their close friends & rivals Inter Beleriand but they only played seriously in offence for half an hour. So more points on the tally in the table would be in order (currently 3rd).

Valimar, as always, seems to be on top of things in their games but will not execute their full arsenal unless forced to (if even then). They could have surely scored more on Anduin at least and thus could have more points in the rankings (currently 7th).

Armenelos could have won their first game against Gondor but decided not to. As they also could have scored more against Minas Tirith, they should clearly have more ranking points and possibly be higher up in the ranking (currently 6th).

Rohan is probably a bit too high on the standings as their 2-0 win over Barad Dûr was not so much their goodness but Sauron’s reluctance to try them for real. Their second draw is also more or less non-telling. Overall their admittedly fine defence probably looks better it is as it has not been tested thus far. So Rohan probably could be lower in the ranking (currently 5th).

Imladris could clearly have scored more against Arnor and possibly even force a draw with Eriador so they should be higher on the ranking (currently 11th).

Angband has played lazily, purposefully easy with half-lights. Even if it is a real possibility that Angband has a problem with their offence (too weak a midfield to support the forwards) it feels they will end up higher in the ranking when the real games begin (currently 12th).

Hithlum was not giving anything like their serious effort against The Downer but pulled back every once in a while. So they could have scored more and gotten more points to the tallies. On the other hand their ugly loss to Real Valinor shows they are not a top four (probably not even top eight) team this year around, but possibly a bit better than the ranking shows (currently 16th).

Shire-Bree United has scored 7 goals thus far in amiable and friendly atmosphere, but what happens when the opponents start to play for real and shut down their defences? Obviously the high number of goals they have conceded already affects their ranking, but the AKM still predicts that Shire-Bree will fall a notch from it’s ranking unless they too can tighten their defences – which the AKM seems unlikely (currently 19th).

Mordor could have won Minas Tirith but allowed them to draw on purpose. However the tactical ways might change come the tournament, it speaks the team Mordor to be stronger and should have more points on the tally for a win over Tirith. A fair draw with weakish Arnor side doesn’t make them look too good though (currently 23rd).

Barad Dûr in turn is probably a lot better team than how they have played thus far, letting Rohan to take the first game just like that (playing an amiable draw with the T-I-G - another undervalued team – gives the statistician no way to bring them higher to where they belong). If not on the top half of the teams, certainly not the worst team of the tournament anyway (currently 32nd).