[Boromir88]

TWO TOWERS NETWORK
Boromir the 88th

Several surprises came out of Round 2 friendlies, as we saw a few teams score 5 goals, and some truly shining individuals who are beginning to find their legs. Without further ado, here is the next installment of TTN's power rankings, and this round, we will use our numbers to predict the results of the round 3 match-ups.

Key: (Rank. Team. (w-d-l) - Points).

Power Rankings

01. Real Valinor (2-0-0) - 46.8
A comprehensive 3-goal win against a Hithlum team that can definitely rack up goals, assures Real Valinor stays in our top spot.
(Last: W 5-2, Hithlum)

02. FC Valinor (2-0-0) - 44.8
FC Valinor stays step-for-step with Real with a confident 4-2 win against Nargothrond.
(Last: W 4-2, Nargothrond)

03. Eriador (2-0-0) - 34.3
Eriador apparently is taking the place of Valimar this year, winning another game 1-0. However, the win against a strong Imladris squad, means Eriador jumps up 5 places this week.
(Last: W 1-0, Imladris)

04. AC Beleriand (1-1-0) - 33.3
After crunching all the numbers, despite the draw against Valimar, AC Beleriand stays at 4 (and Valimar actually moves down to 5). Our explanation for this is, AC's 2-0 defeat of Inter Beleriand in Round 1, is boosted by the fact that Inter won in Round 2.
(Last: D 1-1, Valimar)

05. Valimar (1-1-0) - 32.8
As partially explained above, Valimar moves below AC Beleriand after Round 2. In Round 1, Valimar's 1-0 win against Anduin, is not as impressive as AC's 2-0 victory over Inter.
(Last: D 1-1, AC Beleriand)

06. Armenolos (1-1-0) - 30.5
Even if it was against a weaker opponent (and one that would play the Armenolos royalty respectfully), Armenolos regained some of their former swagger. If they stick to their principles of possession, they can certainly make it out Group D, which we now nickname Group Death.
(Last: W 2-1, Minas Tirith)

07. Rohan (1-1-0) - 28.5
No shame in drawing with the rushing tide from The Sea, especially since Rohan outshot their opponents statistically. But based on performances from other teams near them in the rankings, Rohan does slip a bit, and will need more from Helm and Eorl.
(Last: D 1-1, The Sea)

08. Tirion (1-0-1) - 27.5
The Havens seems to be in shambles at the moment, but they can score some goals too. Anytime a team can put up 5 goals, you have to take notice. The 4 teams from Group D, are currently ranked 1st, 2nd, 6th, and 8th...Group Death indeed.
(Last: W 5-3, The Havens)

09. Angband (0-2-0) - 27.0
Another rather unspirited performance from Angband. Although, Angband typically doesn't play with much spirit in the friendlies, and yet are still able to get 2 draws against tough squads. Which tells us they should win their Group A pretty comfortably.
(Last: D 1-1, Anfauglith)

10. The Sea (0-2-0) - 26.3
Ulmo's defense does not seem to be as shut down as it has been in the past, but the offense seems better. Perhaps Ulmo figures the defense does not need much work now, and is already prepared for the group stage.
(Last: W 1-1, Rohan)

11. Wilderland (1-1-0) - 24.3
Well, despite the draw to a mediocre Anduin at the moment, Wilderland holds onto the 11th rank for now. Mostly due to Erebor's win in Round 2 benefitted Wilderland based on Wilderland beating them in Round 1.
(Last: D 2-2, Anduin)

12. Erebor (1-0-1) - 24.3
Speaking of Erebor, they wind up virtually tied with Wilderland after Round 2. Wilderland maintains the edge based on already beating Erebor. Although, we might point out Erebor seemed to get a bit unlucky in that match, as ChielfWolf made a parade of saves, so Erebor can certainly climb back into the Top 10.
(Last: W 1-0, Dwarves Utd)

13. Imladris (1-0-1) - 21.0
They seemed surprised Eriador decided to go for the win, but it just proves lose some of your focus and effort, and your performance drops, just as Imladris drops in the rankings.
(Last: L 0-1, Eriador)

14. Anfauglith (0-2-0) - 20.8
Anfauglith is hanging around pretty much where we expected with 2 so-so draws. They also have a clear deficiency in the mid-field, even with a highly talented defense, it may not be good enough to beat any of the teams in Group G.
(Last: D 1-1, Angband)

15. Hithlum (1-0-1) - 19.8
The positive news for Hithlum, is they won't face an offense anywhere near as talented as Real's in group play. The bad news, their defense leaks big time and the FW-trio will have to be 100% on their game to beat the Valar defenses they will face in Group E.
(Last: L 2-5, Real Valinor)

16. Nargothrond (0-1-1) - 18.0
Yes they were up against FC Valinor, but something doesn't bode well with this Nargothrond team. TTN believes they threw all their eggs into the offense, and the massive void in the defense, with a rather pathetic (sorry Old Beor) GK, spells trouble for Nargothrond.
(Last: L 2-4 FC Valinor)

17. Gondolin (1-0-1) - 17.5
Gondolin bounces back after a bad loss to Real Valinor. They just squeak ahead of Doriath and are back in the thick of the talk as a team that can advance from Group B.
(Last: W 3-2, Doriath)

18. Doriath (0-1-1) - 17.3
Doriath will be a tough foe for anyone, but Melian can't hold down the defense on her own. It's clear she needs help from the other 3, but how confident is TTN they can raise their performance for the tournament? Not very.
(Last: L 2-3, Gondolin)

19. Gondor (0-2-0) - 16.0
The draw against Armenolos looked pretty good, the draw against Isengard? Looks pretty bad.
(Last: D 1-1, Isengard)

20. Dwarves Utd (0-1-1) - 12.5
Sorry Aule, this team just isn't working. There is absolutely no scoring threat, and your defense can not hold out forever against the likes of Erebor or Wilderland. Not unless you start generating some more shots on goal to relieve the pressure on the defense.
(Last: L 0-1, Erebor)

21. Shire-Bree Utd (0-2-0) - 11.5
This is such a difficult team to figure out. We like how their offense is clicking and playing relaxed, but boy are there are lot of problems with the DF, and particularly Halbarad struggling between the posts. Conceding 4 against Nargothrond is one thing, but giving up 3 against the...Misty Mountains?
(Last: D 3-3, Misty Mountains)

22. Anduin (0-1-1) - 10.5
A draw against group opponent Wilderland means that Anduin will not be an easy win for anyone in Group C. With the disappointing Dwarves United, at the moment, Anduin could shake up and cause real problems in Group C.
(Last: D 2-2, Wilderland)

23. Tol-in-Gaurhot (0-2-0) - 10.3
A better game than last week from TIG, but still unsure of how they will fair when the tournament begins, when they continue having a rotation of different wights, and can't win Barad-dur
(Last: D 2-2, Barad-dur)

24. The Havens (0-0-2) - 10.3
They've perhaps had the hardest 2 opponents so far in the friendlies, but 2 losses is still 2 losses and Cirdan is hemorrhaging goals.
(Last: L 3-5, Tirion)

25. Minas Tirith (0-1-1) - 9.5
Minas Tirith hasn't been humiliated, but they also haven't looked that spectacular. One could even argue with their payroll the White Tower has been a disappointment with only a draw against Mordor and loss to Armenolos to show so far.
(Last: L 1-2, Armenolos)

26. Inter Beleriand (1-0-1) - 8.8
A loss to AC Beleriand, Ok, it's expected. A win against The Downer, ok, that's also expected. Which means Inter Beleriand is stays in 26th, until they show us something we don't expect. Although, beating The Downer does bring the good news that they are able to beat the teams they should, and not simply draw as we've seen from some others.
(Last: W 2-1, The Downer)

27. Isengard (0-1-1) - 7.0
Nothing spectacular with a draw against Gondor, just a mild surprise that Isengard won't be pushover, by any means. Still, their tournament fate doesn't look bright if they can't pick up a win.
(Last: D 1-1, Gondor)

28. Misty Mountains (0-2-0) - 6.3
We are unsure if Misty Mountains has some surprising scoring ability (well, of course when Durin's Bane isn't playing selfishly, he can rack up the goals for his team), or if Shire-Bree's defense is just terrible. Misty Mts keeps slowly climbing up in the rankings, but is much like Isengard. TTN will have to see more.
(Last: D 3-3, Shire-Bree Utd)

29. Mordor (0-2-0) - 5.8
Much like the 2 teams ahead of them. 2 decent draws just means Mordor, despite the cheap payroll won't be an easy team to beat. But they aren't much of a threat to beat anyone either.
(Last: D 2-2, Arnor)

30. Barad-dur (0-1-1) - 5.5
Barad-dur did look better, but still dropped 1 spot. There is something about this team, that TTN finds very dangerous though. So far Castamir and Beruthiel have done nothing, but we all know of their scoring talent. They should not be underestimated.
(Last: D 2-2, Tol-in-Gaurhoth)

31. Arnor (0-1-1) - 4.0
Kudos to not losing to Mordor, but nothing to see here. Arnor is still pretty bad, but has the most to gain finding the team-spirit magic with their low payroll.
(Last: D 2-2, Mordor)

32. The Downer (0-0-2) - .8
Arguably a better performance from The Downer, but ultimately it's another loss. You have to wonder if Hookbill will continue to play more respectfully, when all that it gets The Downer is more losses.
(Last: L 1-2, Inter Beleriand)

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The percentages below the teams are the mathematical probabilities of a head-to-head match up. For example, in Anduin vs. Mordor, Anduin is favored and in a head to head match against Mordor would win 64.4% of the time. The flaw in this is we have no real way to take into account a draw, since this assumes there is a winner in every game played between the two teams. But below the percentages is TTN's prediction of one match at this one point in time.

Now, our competitors are going to argue that these numbers mean absolutely nothing, and it's TTN being a mediocre network, by trying to say something, without really saying anything. We remind our readers, this is an experimental method (like our Power Rankings). Our goal is to measure how all 32 teams compare against eachother, and predict match winners. So we provide the math/numbers to determine probability, but also the subjective opinion from the expert. This way, our readers can look at the most comprehensive coverage, determine what to expect, and then make their own decisions. Agree or disagree with our findings, doesn't matter. But we guarantee it will be TTN that provides the most information, covering every single angle by using every possible stat we could possibly come up with.

Anduin vs Mordor
64.4% - 35.6%
-Anduin will be more inspired in a friendly against Mordor and win 2-1.

Angband vs Valimar
45.2% - 54.8%
-Morgoth will likely go into a shell, but Valimar isn't as good as last year. Draw 1-1.

Anfauglith vs AC Beleriand
38.4% - 61.6%
-Anfauglith's defense will make thing's tough, but AC Beleriand has the better talent top to bottom. 1-0 AC Beleriand.

Armenelos vs The Sea
53.7% - 46.3%
-Ulmo continues being the draw specialist in friendlies. Draw 1-1

Arnor vs Gondor
20.0% - 80.0%
-It easily could end in a draw from some arrangement between friends, but in any non-friendly match, Gondor would be heavy favorites. 2-1 Gondor

Barad-Dur vs The Havens
34.8% - 65.2%
-Should be high scoring, The Havens have 2 losses, but have played better against better competion. 3-2 Havens.

Inter Beleriand vs Doriath
33.7% - 66.3%
-A test game for both squads. A team Doriath has to beat to be contenders, but you could say the same for Inter too. 2-1 Doriath.

Dwarves United vs Imladris
37.3% - 62.7%
-We know one thing, the Dwarven team won't score, but does Imladris have enough firepower to get 1? Draw 0-0

Erebor vs Eriador
41.5% - 58.5%
-The Witch King has been completely ineffective, that will change but this will still be a Draw 1-1.

Gondolin vs Tol In Gaurhoth
62.9% - 37.1%
-Maeglin and Gothmog may be heating up, but TTN doesn't like Gondolin's nonchalant attitude. But TIG is the king of nonchalance. 2-1 Gondolin.

Hithlum vs Nargothrond
52.4% - 47.6%
-One of the closer battles this round, will be see our first 10 goals combined game (or even more!?) Draw 4-4

Isengard vs Shire-Bree United
37.8 - 62.2%
-A test match for both teams. If either wants to be seen as legit contenders in their groups, they must come away with the win. 3-1 Shire-Bree.

Minas Tirith vs Rohan
25% - 75%
-Rohan are heavy favorites, but one does wonder their motivation going against their brothers from MT. 2-0 Rohan.

Misty Mts vs Wilderland
20.6% - 79.4%
-Misty Mountains will not have as easy of a time scoring against Wilderland. 2-1 Wilderland.

Tirion vs The Downer
91.7% - 8.3%
-The most lopsided game in Round 3, but you just have no clue if The Downer will suddenly revert to playing dirty, and how that will effect the more precise Tirion. Should result the same low, another Downer loss. 4-1 Tirion.

FC Valinor vs Real Valinor
48.9% - 51.1%
-Promises to be the closest fought battle, but since they will play in the group stage, neither will give away any of their secrets. Draw 2-2.