In this issue of the ArdaCup.com Stats Reports we bring you the numbers and an analysis of the previous two rounds of friendly matches. But before we proceed an introduction is in order for our newest number-crunching innovation.
The Adjusted Goal Multiplier:
There's always that question. Under the old power rank, a team putting up goals and shutouts against weaker teams will be ranked higher than a team grinding it out against stronger teams. But under the new Power Rank system opponent strength will be a factor in the ranking.
First of all a multiplier is assigned to each team based on their current goal differential using the following formula:
Code:
Multiplier = 1 + [goal differential]/2*[absolute value of the greatest or least goal differential among all teams]
Using current teams as an example, Real Valinor gets a multiplier of 1.5 due to its league-leading goal differential of 5.
Whereas The Havens gets a multiplier of 0.7 due to its -3 goal differential.
Code:
0.7 = 1 + [-3]/[5*2]
After a multiplier has been assigned to each team, the scores of each game are adjusted: the goal made by a team is multiplied by the opponent's multiplier, and the goal allowed is multiplied by the team's own multiplier. From these adjusted scores the adjusted goal differential is computed.
Power Rank:
A short stats list and analysis of the top ten teams shall be listed before the complete Power Rank table is given below.
Legend:
Team name (win-draw-loss)
Offence (goals per game) [rank]
Defence (goals allowed per game) [rank]
Goalkeeping (save percentage) [rank]
Adjusted Goal Differential [rank]
- Real Valinor (2-0-0)
4 [1]
1.5 [19]
72.73% [15]
+2.7 [1]
If the other nine teams on the list are the cream of the crop, then Real is the cherry on top. With its number one offence and adjusted goal differential, they possess the ability to dominate games completely. And if you think it's only their offence that's on fire, though, remember that their defence withstood the onslaught of Maeglin, Gothmog, Túrin, Húrin, and Hador and allowed them only eleven shots on target and three goals.
- Rohan (1-1-0)
1.5 [11]
0.5 [2]
85.71% [7]
+1.4 [4]
The top Edain team (ranked higher than even the perpetually Cup-contending Númenórean squad) and the top Third Age team of the moment lives primarily through its defence, but a goal against an Ulmo back line is a good sign for the Riders's offence. Excellent friendly performance is not always indicative of tournament success, but with Rohan's form they look set to dominate their weak group.
- AC Beleriand (1-1-0)
1.5 [16]
0.5 [6]
87.5% [3]
+1.7 [3]
Surprise, surprise! A squad with Fëanor as captain thriving more on defence. Although drawing blood against Manwë is indicative of a flowing offence. If their attack and defence click at the same time then there's no telling how far this team would go.
- Eriador (2-0-0)
1 [26]
0 [1]
100% [1]
+2.0 [2]
With Elrond between the posts Eriador's defence being tighter than Moneybag's pockets is no surprise. They don't need a red-hot offence to win games, just one that scores goals. Having just put one behind Imladris's seventh rank defence, they look set on that end.
- Armenelos (1-1-0)
1.5 [15]
1 [11]
77.78% [10]
+0.6 [6]
The Númenórean squad have been playing too friendly with fellow Dúnedain so far, so we have yet to see how good this team really is. However they have to get moving fast—their group brings death to the unprepared.
- Wilderland (1-1-0)
2 [8]
1.5 [20]
75% [12]
+0.5 [9]
Losing Sauron and Smaug is no biggie for Wilderland, who gained Oromë, Elwë, and Galadriel in exchange. The first two are spearheading their effective attack, and the Lady of the Golden Wood got a goal in the last game, proving that she's just not about defence. With Scatha yet to step up, this team still can go higher.
- The Sea (0-2-0)
1.5 [12]
1.5 [18]
72.73% [16]
+0.6 [7]
The Sea is middling in almost all aspects, including in the standings, but they're doing it against the best teams, which is why Ulmo's squad enters the list with a seventh-ranked adjusted goal differential. We're banking on the Vala of the seas to take it a notch higher come tourney time.
- FC Valinor (2-0-0)
3.5 [4]
2 [25]
71.43% [18]
+0.1 [11]
The other Valinor squad looks to be playing second fiddle to Real, being a hair behind their brethren in both offence and defence. We still haven't seen how good their over-all defence really is, though, since they gave The Havens and Nargothrond almost an hour of free rein over the ball, resulting in a lot of shots. If they decide to play for real for ninety-plus minutes, how much less shots might those two have made?
- Valimar (1-1-0)
1 [29]
0.5 [4]
87.5% [5]
+1.0 [5]
Manwë is up to his old tricks again, playing the one-goal-win game, but their defence is looking fine enough for them to stick to such a strategy. The only goal they conceded so far came from a Fëanor play.
- Erebor (1-0-1)
1 [20]
1 [9]
75% [14]
0.0 [12]
The Lonely Mt squad is slightly better than Wilderland defensively, but their front line needs to step up if they wish to win their group from Oromë's team.
The Power Ranking is based on the aggregate of offensive and defensive ranking, combined with the adjusted goal differential rank of each team. The listed offensive and defensive rankings are from the actual numbers by the teams, and not adjusted. Ties are broken by the win-draw-loss record.
The offensive ranking is based on the goals scored throughout the friendly matches. Ties are broken by a) greater number of shots made on target; and b) greater number of shots made.
The defensive ranking is based on the goals allowed throughout the friendly matches. Ties are broken by a) least number of shots allowed on target; and b) least amount of shots allowed.
Please note that the above ranking is based on the two rounds of friendly matches played by the teams, and does not reflect actual tournament performance.
Top individual performers:
GOALS + ASSISTS
4+1
Curufin (FC Valinor)
4+0
Arien (Real Valinor)
Glaurung (Nargothrond)
3+1
Strider (Shire-Bree United)
Bombadil (Shire-Bree United)
Oromë (Wilderland)
Aredhel (Tirion)
2+3
Míriel (Real Valinor)
2+2
Finwë (Tirion)
Gwindor (Nargothrond)
2+1
Tar-Ancalimon (Armenelos)
Húrin (Hithlum)
Túrin (Hithlum)
Tar-Minastir (The Sea)
2+0
Ancalagon (Angband)
PhantomWolf (Tol-in-Gaurhoth)
Isildur (Arnor)
Maeglin (Gondolin)
Tuor (The Havens)
Aegnor (The Havens)
Durin’s Bane (Misty Mts)
Sauron (Barad-dûr)
1+2
Hookbill (The Downer)
Nienor (Hithlum)
0+4
Barrow-Wight (Shire-Bree United)
0+3
Elwë (Wilderland)
Andreth (The Havens)
Daeron (Doriath)
GOALKEEPING
- Elrond (Eriador) – 5/5 (100%)
- Elros (Imladris) – 10/11 (90.91%)
- Marach (AC Beleriand) – 7/8 (87.5%)
- Ungoliant (Anfauglith) – 7/8 (87.5%)
- Manwë (Valimar) – 7/8 (87.5%)