[Boromir88]

THE TWO TOWERS NETWORK
Boromir the 88th

A Friendly Preview - Round 1

To get ourselves warmed up for the tournament, we are back with a game-by-game analysis for Round 1 friendlies. Some of our competitors find predicting friendlies to be all together silly and pointless, and TTN acknowledges friendly results must be looked at with a grain of salt. However, when we promise to bring coverage from every angle, we mean every angle. Friendlies can go a long way in determining how teams plan to play and win during the tournament, and of course, how they perform against other Arda-quality teams.

TTN's eventual aim is to use the power rankings, and point-system to accurately predict match results. However, since the first power rankings are based on a lot of speculation, for Round 1 we will just give a general overview of what we expect to see. The numbers in parenthesis are where TTN has currently ranked a team.

(23)Anduin vs (2)Valimar - The way Valimar plays always translates well in winning friendlies and we expect much of the same from them this year. Anduin will be brutally annoying defensively, but ultimately won't control enough possession.
Odds: 70% Valimar wins 1-0. 25% Draw 1-1. 5% Anduin wins 1-0.

(4)Angband vs (14)Doriath - Doriath is much depleted from last year, but still has a solid core, and particularly at the mid-field which should be able to dominate Angband's mid-field. Angband will need to get the ball to their upfront play-makers to win, and I'm uncertain Morgoth will desire to spend his energy to aid the mid-field in a friendly.
Odds: 25% Angband wins 2-1. 55% Draw 1-1. 20% Doriath wins 2-1.

(12)Angfauglith vs (26)Tol In Gaurhoth - As much as TIGs comradery has gone to being extremely successful in previous Arda Cups, we can't see any way they will be able to crack Anfauglith's stellar defense. TIG could even out the game by dominating the midfield, but that will rely on phantomwolf's desire to keep his head on the game, which is usually pretty ho-hum.
Odds: 10% Anfauglith wins 2-1. 70% Anfauglith wins 1-0. 20% Draw 1-1.

(3)Armenelos vs (20)Gondor - Should be a friendly in all meanings of the word, as Armenolos tries to respectfully prove superiority over their younger brothers. The Gondorians will try to prove their own worth in the eyes of their ancestors.
Odds: 80% Armenolos wins 2-1. 15% Draw 1-1. 5% Gondor wins 2-1.

(29)Arnor vs (13)Imladris - Both squads should have the highest respect for the other, which means this will most likely be a friendly kick-around. Arnor has the superior strikers, but they can be neutralized by Imladris' brilliant defense and goal-keeping. While Elladan and Elrohir are untested, and will have trouble scoring on the less-pricey, but well-organized Arnorian defense.
Odds: 15% Imladris wins 1-0. 75% Draw 0-0. 10% Arnor wins 1-0.

(28)Barad-Dur vs (10)Rohan - Rohan looks to be one of the Middle-earth power houses this season (and it's definitely been a costly one). On the other side, Mordorians are scratching their heads at Sauron's own plan. Who has claimed he wants to bring the Arda Cup to Mordor, but has shown up this year with some of the cheapest teams.
Odds: 20% Barad Dur wins 2-1. 35% Draw 2-2. 45% Rohan wins 2-1.

(8)AC Beleriand vs (25)Inter Beleriand - AC Beleriand has put together quite a team of historic names, but it's unsure how the different personalities will mesh. Inter Beleriand, while having some strong players of their own, also has significant gaps. Balrog #5 will surely be a powerful force on the defense, but you're truly only as good as your weakest defender, and well, the rest of Inter Beleriand's defense is nothing to brag about.
Odds: 30% AC Beleriand wins 2-0. 65% AC Beleriand wins 2-1. 5% Draw 1-1.

(17)Dwarves United vs (31)Misty Mts - The Dwarves will have a difficult time containing Durin's Bane, but let's be honest, the Balrog is Misty Mts' only real threat. Also, Durin's Bane will likely be heavily guarded by either Celebrimbor or Aule, who should be able to confidently contain the Balrog. TTN has a "wait and see" policy to determine how much of a threat Dwarves United will be in the attack, but from the preliminary look, not much of a threat at all.
Odds: 50% Dwarves Utd wins 1-0. 40% Draw 0-0. 10% Misty Mts wins 1-0.

(9)Erebor vs (18)Wilderland - Promises to be one of the higher-scoring matches of this round. It will be impossible for either defense/GK to keep the other off the board. At the moment, TTN gives Erebor a slight edge defensively, but this is quite negligble. The more telling difference is how will Galadriel and Elwe want to run the mid-field? Being more conservative in mind, they may desire to hold the ball more and look for openings to feed passes to Scatha and Orome, thus their forwards may be more reigned in then Erebor's trio.
Odds: 40% Erebor wins 3-2. 30% Draw 2-2. 30% Wilderland wins 3-2

(7)Eriador vs (27)Isengard - Isengard's not going to be an easy one to beat by any means, but they will also have trouble beating anyone. Saruman may have the wits and tricks to pull it off, but we are not convinced Grima has the ability to command the mid-field. Eriador. however, is solid talent top to bottom and will be even more difficult to beat.
Odds: 5% Eriador wins 2-0. 85% Eriador wins 1-0. 10% Draw 1-1.

(22)Gondolin vs (5)Real Valinor - Not much to say about Real Valinor other than they will probably be as good as advertised and are just on a different level than Gondolin. Gondolin fans might have been displeased with Turgon's defense-first strategy in previous seasons, but TTN believes this year, Turgon's steady carefulness probably could have been needed more. That is, before shelling out 20 million each for Maeglin and Gothmog.
Odds: 15% Real Valinor wins 3-1. 15% Real Valinor wins 3-2. 70% Real Valinor wins 2-1.

(14)Hithlum vs (32)The Downer - Another high-scoring affair as we expect Hithlum's defense to have some difficulty handling The Downer's antics. However, The Downer's defense will have an even more difficult time handling Hithlum's killer forwards.
Odds: 25% Hithlum wins 4-2. 60% Hithlum wins 3-2. 15% Draw 3-3.

(21)Minas Tirith vs (30)Mordor - A battle of two teams who will meet again in the group stage. Being rivals we expect a rather bruising game, but also a sense of guardedness to not give away their full bag of tricks for when they meet again.
Odds: 20% Minas Tirith wins 2-1. 65% Draw 1-1. 15% Mordor wins 2-1

(11)Nargothrond vs (24)Shire-Bree United - Nargothrond is looking more dangerous than ever, but it will be interesting to see how they deal with transitioning from a careful defensive team, to a more powerful attacking force. Shire-Bree went far in attracting out-side help, but they're not strong enough to beat a 1st Age power.
Odds: 25% Nargothrond wins 3-1. 70% Nargothrond wins 2-1. 5% Draw 2-2.

(19)The Havens vs (1)FC Valinor - It will be difficult for any team to keep The Havens attackers off the score board. But based upon last years performances it will be harder to keep Celegorm and Curufin off the board, as well. Plus, we are more confident in FC Valinor's defensive/goal-keeping ability.
Odds: 5% FC Valinor wins 3-1. 40% FC Valinor wins 3-2. 55% FC Valinor wins 2-1.

(6)The Sea vs (16)Tirion - Ulmo's teams usually take to a pretty uninspired friendly play, but even so, they remain professional and sound, and thus nearly impossible to beat. Tirion will likely be the aggressors, but against The Sea, they may even be uninspired to make a hard push to grab the win.
Odds: 20% The Sea wins 1-0. 75% Draw 1-1. 5% Tirion wins 1-0.