[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by denethorthefirst

While reading the SIL and browsing the forum, I have always wondered how the story would have played out if the Noldor had made the decision not to leave Valinor. Maybe Feanor has a slightly different personality. But whatever the reason, they stay put. What would happen? In the story the actions of the Noldor are painted in a rather negative light and they are scolded by the Valar. But what exactly did the Valar expect and how would they respond? If the Noldor never leave then Melkor will quickly overrun Beleriand and the rest of Arda. He will completely annihilate or enslave the Sindar and Nandor in Beleriand and even Doriath would not be able to hold out forever if there are no Noldor to save them ... hundreds of thousands dead, a genocide of epic proportions essentially ... how will those elves, arriving en masse in the Halls of Mandos, ever forgive the Valar and their inaction? In a way, the staying of the Noldor would lead to a rift between Elves and the Valar and strife too, just a strife of a different nature.

I think you're being unfair to the Sindar here. Elu and Melian won the First Battle. With absolutely no warning, they were set upon from a direction they'd never considered dangerous - Silm Chapter 10 makes it clear that evil creatures came from the east and south, not from the north, until Morgoth returned. They not only defended their heartlands, they utterly crushed one of the two hosts that came against them (and gained a vital influx of population in the bargain). The western Orc horde was 'victorious', true - but they only drove Cirdan onto the defensive, not to his doom.

And then Melian set up the Girdle, which we're told would stand unless one with greater power than her showed up. That's specifically one - the text doesn't allow for multiple enemy Maiar to team up against her. You might say that Sauron was stronger than Melian - but, well, a) he never managed to break in when he had the run of Beleriand after the Sudden Flame, and b) Melian is a Maia of Lorien, and dreams are a powerful subject in Tolkien (see: Olorin).

From the text we have, Doriath would have held out indefinitely unless Morgoth himself came to fight. And there is no indication that the Blackheart would do so unless forced. He was too afraid of injury, such as he had already suffered from the Silmarils and Ungoliant. Morgoth knew he was trapped in that body, and didn't want to risk the sort of harm that could come from placing himself on the front lines.

The real change, I think, would come not in Beleriand, but far to the East. Assuming Men still awoke, Morgoth would be able to focus far more on corrupting them, which would give him a rapidly-breeding army of fanatics that the Valar were afraid to touch. We saw how Sauron turned Men against Valinor at the end of the Second Age; how about an Unholy Crusade commanded by the first Dark Lord himself? Given that Morgoth doesn't care in the slightest what happens to his minions, I'm sure he'd take a stab at it.

Originally Posted by Andsigil

Please correct me if I'm incorrect here, but this post implies that Manwe conspired to drive out the Noldor in order to fight Morgoth "over there" instead of "over here." Therefore, the entire Silmaril affair, including his asking Feanor for them at one point, was contrived just to drive Feanor into rebellion.

I think you're misjudging this a little. Manwe's understanding of the Music doesn't seem to have been 'here are the things which will happen' (otherwise, y'know, the Death of the Trees would surely have made an impact?); it's more the certain knowledge of something everyone else has to take on faith: that 'he that attempteth [to alter the Music] shall prove but mine instrument in the devising of things more wonderful, which he himself hath not imagined.'

Manwe didn't know that the Noldor would rebel. He didn't know that they would cage in Morgoth, that he would break that cage, that Luthien and Beren would retrieve one Silmaril and the Mariner would return it to Valinor. What he knew, with absolute certainty, was that whatever happened would ultimately turn to Good.

And come to think of it, we actually see the precise moment the Elder King realised this applied directly to Feanor's actions:

Originally Posted by Silm 11

But at that last word of Fëanor: that at the least the Noldor should do deeds to live in song for ever, he raised his head, as one that hears a voice far off, and he said: 'So shall it be! Dear-bought those songs shall be accounted, and yet shall be well-bought. For the price could be no other. Thus even as Eru spoke to us shall beauty not before conceived be brought into Eä, and evil yet be good to have been.'

... and to go back to the original post: the Noldor as a whole aren't 'scolded' by the Valar (though Feanor absolutely is). They are warned, and in every particular those warnings are correct.

Originally Posted by Silm 9

'Against the folly of Fëanor shall be set my counsel only. Go not forth! For the hour is evil, and your road leads to sorrow that ye do not foresee. No aid will the Valar lend you in this quest; but neither will they hinder you; for this ye shall know: as ye came hither freely, freely shall ye depart. But thou Fëanor Finwë's son, by thine oath art exiled. The lies of Melkor thou shalt unlearn in bitterness. Vala he is, thou saist Then thou hast sworn in vain, for none of the Valar canst thou overcome now or ever within the halls of Eä, not though Eru whom thou namest had made thee thrice greater than thou art.'

...

'Tears unnumbered ye shall shed; and the Valar will fence Valinor against you, and shut you out, so that not even the echo of your lamentation shall pass over the mountains. On the House of Fëanor the wrath of the Valar lieth from the West unto the uttermost East, and upon all that will follow them it shall be laid also. Their Oath shall drive them, and yet betray them, and ever snatch away the very treasures that they have sworn to pursue. To evil end shall all things turn that they begin well; and by treason of kin unto kin, and the fear of treason, shall this come to pass. The Dispossessed shall they be for ever.

'Ye have spilled the blood of your kindred unrighteously and have stained the land of Aman. For blood ye shall render blood, and beyond Aman ye shall dwell in Death's shadow. For though Eru appointed to you to die not in Eä, and no sickness may assail you, yet slain ye may be, and slain ye shall be: by weapon and by torment and by grief; and your houseless spirits shall come then to Mandos. There long shall ye abide and yearn for your bodies, and find little pity though all whom ye have slain should entreat for you. And those that endure in Middle-earth and come not to Mandos shall grow weary of the world as with a great burden, and shall wane, and become as shadows of regret before the younger race that cometh after. The Valar have spoken.'

hS