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Originally Posted by mormegil
Fordim I need you to explain why you voted for somebody that you believed to be innocent. I know and understand what you have said but I just can't understand why yet. I actually want to believe that you are innocent but I need some validation for believing that.
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Fair enough.
I suppose the final reason is that given the nature of the game, I never feel like I can know or believe anything for certain. When I voted for
Sono I did believe that he was
probably innocent and that
Kuru was
probably guilty -- but in either case I could be wrong.
I believe in risk management: when I assess a choice like this I try to make it in terms that take into account the best possible scenario (catching a wolf)
and the worst possible scenario (creating a tie and letting a wolf kill two or even three innocents).
When I cast my vote there were, to my mind, three possible wolves available:
Kuru, TP and SPM. My vote had no way of catching
Kuru as no-one had voted for him. (And this has been noted by me so that I am becoming less suspicious -- if I'm the only one who has my eye on him, I should perhaps look elsewhere).
TP and SpM each had votes for them, but I doubt that both are werewolves given that they have been going at each other: too risky with such a close vote. So I could only choose one and hope I was right, but that would have set up a tie for a future wolf to make -- so sure, I
might have picked a wolf and another wolf (or even a misguided innocent) could have come along and made a tie and a wolf
might have died taking one or even two innocents with him. So the best possible scenario, in that case, was that I had a slim chance of catching a wolf, with a better than slim chance of killing more than one innocent.
The worst possible scenario was just more attractive. By casting my vote the way I did, I knew that I would
probably not be getting a wolf (but then, I could have been wrong, and Sono could have been guilty), but the pay off was that I could guarantee, right then and there, that there would be no tie and no further loss of innocents.
So it was brutal, cold and perhaps unattractive logic that drove me -- it may even have been faulty -- but to answer your question: I made the choice I did as a result not just of assessing the possible benefits of a correct vote, but taking into account the dangers of an incorrect vote.