Another problem with trying to push the Beleriand thing too hard: Smaug was a winged, flying dragon, something which already in the Quenta Noldorinwa (contemporary with the start of The Hobbit) Tolkien had declared were never seen before the War of Wrath.
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The entire plot of The Lord of the Rings could be said to turn on what Sauron didn’t know, and when he didn’t know it.
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