Arkenstone is not Silmaril
Most of the arguments for the Arkenstone=Silmaril are basically convenient scenarios or a different and obscure understanding of the text. I like to follow the text above all else.
If the Arkenstone was a Silmaril, and floated under the crust for a long time to eventually make its way into the Lonely Volcano (which I doubt is a volcano), it would take a very long time. Whilst a long time has passed, it seems illogical that this would actually happen.
For the carving on the stone, removing the stone off of a gem would be a formality, a common practice, so while the idea of removing the stone makes sense, it is a bit silly. Wouldn't dwarves want to clean all of their finds before cutting them and making them beautiful?
Seeing as how they found it in the mountain, and were said to cut it, this leads me to believe it was found in a similar fashion to diamond, just a big clump of it with no proper shape. Carving this stone into a shape would make sense.
If the Arkenstone was a Silmaril, many more parties would undoubtedly try to get their hands on it, especially the remaining Noldor. Thranduil would have recognized it, and Gandalf would have known, or feared, it was a Silmaril before the quest was begun.
I agree with the notion that if Tolkien had the chance to revise the Hobbit, he would potentially have more hints and inferences that the Arkenstone may be a Silmaril, or another stone of similar sort.
As it stands, I believe the Arkenstone to not be a Silmaril, but just a really pretty stone.
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