As is traditional I've drawn a map.
"If Hobbiton and Rivendell are taken (as intended) to be at about the latitude of Oxford, then Minas Tirith, 600 miles south, is at about the latitude of Florence. The Mouths of Anduin and the ancient city of Pelargir are at about the latitude of ancient Troy." (L294)
The contours drawn in the ocean are for when the sea level was 100 meters lower, as it was thousands of years ago.
The Misty mountains start in the South with the Jura mountains. If you look at an atlas you can actually see the line going north right where they are on the map. And the Redhorn Pass is obvious.
The mountains in Italy line up pretty well, too.
Lake Garda, the largest lake in that country is Nen Hithoel. It, too, is surrounded by mountains except at its southern end which leads to a plain, just like on the map of Middle-earth.
Fangorn is right where the Black Forest is.
