[William Cloud Hicklin]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Glad I stumbled upon this thread Huey. Thanks for sharing! I'll try to read his Helm's Deep analysis at a later date.

I wanted to bring up one minor quibble and that is with Mr. Devereaux's estimate for the size of Mordor's siege force.

The movies I think he has it correct, I recall headlines/promos for the battle stating 200,000-250,000 size. An army that size as he explains for the movies was unrealistic.

His estimate (granted he's right that Tolkien didn't pin down exact numbers and so was using wikipedia as a reference) of half the size of the movies is I believe too high.

In Karyn Wynn Fonstad's The Atlas of Middle-earth she gives reasonable estimates based on some of the force sizes Tolkien does give.

I'll start with the Battle of Morannon since it will make her reasoning for these estimates clearer.

So Aragorn marches out from Minas Tirith with 7,000 (1,000 horses, 6,000 infantry). 1,000 of them get cold feet and don't make it to the Black Gate. So Aragorn arrives with a force of 6,000. After the Mouth's message it's said:



This places Mordor's force at 70,000. 'and more than ten times their match' references that only 6,000 of the original 7,000 Aragorn marched out with reached the Black Gate.

It is unlikely the force at Pelennor fields was larger than this, because Sauron's mistake was he rushed the siege before his full plans were made and before his full strength gathered. Aragorn reveals the reforged sword and his identity to Sauron via the palantir of Orthanc, and this causes Sauron to rush his plans to attack Minas Tirith.

We do have some ideas of the size of the force (Fonstad settles on the conservative minimum estimate of 45,000 - roughly 4 times the estimated size for the forces of Gondor, Rohan and Aragorn's Grey company).

At the start Faramir comments that 'we may make the Enemy pay ten times our loss at the passage and yet rue the exchange.' And Faramir's force was 'ten times outnumbered at the Causeway forts. (The Siege of Gondor)

We are told the size of the Haradrim force (18,000) for the Rohirrim 'at their onset were thrice outnumbered by the Haradrim alone' (Battle of Pelennor Fields). Theoden remarked during their mustering at Dunharrow, they gathered 6,000 spears and that was 'less than half' what he hoped for.

So far, 6,000 for the forces of Gondor. 18,000 for Mordor.

Gondor:

6,000 Rohirrim

We don't have all the precise estimates of the fiefdoms forces that came to Minas Tirith, but after they all arrived 'And that was all, less than three thousands full told.' (Minas Tirith) Fonstad estimated the total forces from Gondor's fiefdoms 2,800.

The Tower of the Guard had at least 3 companies (Beregond was in the 3rd company) plus an 'out-garrison'. I believe a modern company consists of something like 80-200 troops. I can't quite remember the reasoning, but Fonstad seems to estimate that a 'company' in Lord of the Rings totals 400-500 troops each. With this she estimated the Tower Guard having no more than 2,000 troops.

Add in Aragorn's Grey Company of 30. Plus he comes with a force from the fiefdoms that were held back in defense of the arriving Corsairs. She estimates this to be 1,000 based on:



So all in total, Gondor and their allies seem to have mustered 11,000-12,000.

Mordor:

18,000 Haradrim.

Frodo witnesses the Minas Morgul host leaving and the narrator remarks it was the 'so great an army had never issued from that vale since the days of Isildur's might...and yet it was but one and not the greatest of the hosts that Mordor now sent forth.' (The Stairs of Cirith Ungol).

She estimates this host at 20,000 based on the causeway forts being outnumber 10 to 1 and Faramir's comments about making the enemy "pay ten times our loss."

So that makes 38,000.

I think her weakest case is the forces from Khand and Rhun which she settled on the conservative estimate that Mordor's force at the Pelennor fields was 4 times that of Gondor's. So she applies a minimum estimate of 45,000 leaving Khand and Rhun forces to make up the remaining 7,000.

Personally, with how often the overwhelming odds and vast size of Mordor's force is described, I think 45,000 is too low (but Fonstad admits that's the minimum amount), but I don't think it would have been over the 70,000 that issued out the Black Gate. Because as mentioned, Sauron actually made a mistake of besieging Minas Tirith before his full plans were made due to Aragorn's reveal. So I favor the higher end of 60-65,000.

I hope this was helpful. I really enjoyed reading his analysis, excellent stuff. And can't wait to get time to read his Helm's Deep analysis.

However, Devereaux makes two salient points, both relating to the fact that an army can be TOO big. 1) after you have completely invested the besieged fortress, any additional troops (not counting the logistics and support train) are supernumerary, and 2) it takes a LOT of food to support and army - and bringing the food means wagons, which means draft animals, which means fodder for the animals......

And given that the W-K is wholly dependent on in effect a single road (Black Gaqte- Ithilien-Osgiliath - the black Gate -Cair Andros route being untenable for serious supply - I would cap the effective force at around 28,000, which was about as large as pre-industrial armies could commit to a single road. (It was for this reason that Napoleon's corps d'armee were set at around that size; they would march by parallel routes and concentrate for battle).