Tolkien nods here; because he also has Gandalf say [paraphrasing] "At first I thought it was one of the lesser rings, not such a big deal though still perilous for mortals in my eyes." I think he should have stuck with this line and not used the other, which creates the plot hole.
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The entire plot of The Lord of the Rings could be said to turn on what Sauron didn’t know, and when he didn’t know it.
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