Right, deep breath time, now we move on to (the preliminary moves) of the War of the Ring. The first being the attack on Thranduil.
In February 3018 Aragorn captured Gollum in the Dead Marshes and took him to Thranduil's wood-elf kingdom in Northern Mirkwood, arriving on 21st of March. Meanwhile, Sauron had set spies on Gollum's trail, hoping for him to lead them to the ring. News (via Dol Guldur) reached Sauron by late April and he instructed Khamul (presumably) to attack Thranduil in order to capture or kill Gollum.
On or about 20th June, Gollum was being guarded by the elves in an isolated tree. Gollum refused to come down, and the elves had no desire to go and get him so they sat there late into the night.
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It was that very night of summer, yet moonless and starless, that Orcs came on us at unawares
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Though they were driven off after a time they were many and fierce and the guards were taken or killed. Gollum escaped both sets of pursuers, making his way eventually to Moria. The elves pursued the orcish invaders but gave up the chase when they neared Dol Guldur.
The orcs were said to be many and fierce, but this was not an all-out invasion, so I'd imagine some hundreds were present, probably selected for this special mission from amongst the Uruk-Hai. They were, however, not used to the woods, perhaps they were from the reinforcements Sauron had sent to Dol Guldur when it was re-occupied with 'sevenfold' strength. Although Khamul would have had overall responsibility for the attack, I consider it unlikely that he was personally involved.
Of the elves, there would likely have been only a few guards, perhaps half a dozen, who were quickly overwhelmed. Someone must have raised an alarm, then reinforcements would have started to arrive. We know Thranduil had at least 2000 troops, probably more, but a full mobilisation was surely not necessary. I'd think the most useful troops in Mirkwood would have been the lightly armed elven bowmen, maybe led by Legolas.
I'd imagine that the orcs would have an elite snatch squad, with some blocking forces to slow down the pursuit.
I do wonder about a few things though. First, where was the territorial divide between the elves and the area controlled by Dol Guldur? Dol Guldur's power is said to have extended to the Old Forest Road, but the area upto the Forest River seems to have been a sort of no-mans land, inhabited by spiders etc but probably with elf patrols and parties occasionally. However, the Mountains of Mirkwood had an evil reputation, perhaps this was the orcs' base for the attack.
Secondly, I wonder how the orcs managed to take the elves by surprise, perhaps too much partying and fine Dorwinion vintages! Though maybe (to speculate!) the orcs had constructed a tunnel system (like the Viet Cong) in order to penetrate elven territory.
Legolas indicates that the rescue attempt was pre-arranged with Gollum, Sauron had many spies in Mirkwood, perhaps Crebain, bats or even the fabled black squirrels carried the messages.
I also wonder if the elves could use 'magic' against the invaders. In the Hobbit, Bilbo falls asleep immediately he steps into the elf ring, sounds like a D+D level 1 sleep spell to me!
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