These are good points,
Tuor of Gondolin and
Boromir. Though the taking of Minas Tirith was nothing compared to the 'real' Quest to destroy the Ring, it would have gone ill with Frodo and Sam if Denethor and Gandalf did not defend Minas Tirith like they did.
With no defense, thousands more people would have died, Aragorn wouldn't have come to Gondor's aid on the Corsair ships, Merry and Eowyn wouldn't have defeated the Witch-King and Aragorn wouldn't be recognised as the King of Gondor by his own people had the people of Gondor just sat tight, or tried to flee.
However, though Sauron's forces could have focussed on other places, such as Mirkwood, Rivendell and Lothlorien, it wouldn't do him a great deal of good in the greater scheme of things. His forces of orcs, though they far outnumber the free peoples of Middle-Earth, could not penetrate Lothlorien or Rivendell, unless Sauron himself came there. Something he probably wouldn't do without the Ring. Sure his forces may overcome Mirkwood- they overcame Erebor, without the extra forces that he would gain from being defied passively by Gondor- but what would it mean for him in the end? That he has gained Mirkwood and killed Thranduil's people, but in the long run, he still hasn't come closer to achieving his target- to get the Ring.
Sauron attacked Gondor as he thought that the Ring would be taken there, and he feared it's use against him-
Quote:
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'Indeed he is in great fear, not knowing what mighty one may suddenly appear, wiedling the ring, and assailing him with war, seeking to cast him down and take his place.' (The White Rider)
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This is what Sauron would have done in the place of the Ringbearer, and this is his folly. If Gondor offered no defense, then Sauron could walk all over them and face a smaller force of Rohan by itself. In the case of such a weaker force (let's say about 3000-4000 people, including Gandalf, Aragorn, Elladan, Elrohir, etc.), Sauron probably wouldn't be foolish enough to use
all of his forces against Aragorn and take his bait- or then again, he might.
Quote:
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'Hardly has our strength sufficed to beat off the first great assault. The next will be greater. This war then is without final hope, as Denethor perceived. Victory cannot be achieved by arms, whether you sit here to endure siege after siege, or march out to be overwhelmed beyond the River.' (The Last Debate)
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So here we can see that even if Gondor 'endures siege after siege', they still can't distract Sauron's full attention, and that they are only a small (but important) part in Sauron's overall scheme- he despises Men and fears Aragorn. The only way to get his attention is by marching to the Black Gate and posing a direct threat (and mental challenge) to his great personal stronghold of Mordor. If Gondor retreated, or if Denethor did not resist Sauron's forces and defended Gondor like he did, it would be with a smaller force that the might of Mordor would be challenged- one that Sauron may not deem strong enough to be worth emptying his lands for, as they simply did not have the numbers to keep the battle going in earnest long enough for Frodo to reach Mount Doom via his free passage through Mordor (as Gandalf said, in his infinite wisdom during the chapter of the Last Debate).
Another factor in all of my mixed jumble of thoughts is the Nazgul. Assuming that Rohan would have come too late to aid Gondor, but 'stop the orcs from feasting' on the flesh of the Gondorians (as Hirgon said to Theoden), the Witch-King
might not have been killed by Merry and Eowyn; a huge blow for the 'goodies'. The King of the Nazgul would be riding the fastest steed (most likely) and might have made it back in time to Mount Doom when Frodo claimed the Ring for his own, so that we might have had the fall of Middle-Earth to Sauron, or alternatively, one of the endings where the Nazgul
did make it back in time to Mount Doom (see
Sauron Defeated: The End of the Third Age (The History of the Lord of the Rings, Part Four), which in my opinion, were far inferior to the canonical ending of the Quest.
So, it could have gone either way, really, but I'm more in favour that not defending Gondor would have been detrimental to the Quest, if not for the sole reason that Sauron would deferred his forces to other places, or reinforced the guard on Mordor, so that Frodo and Sam could not penetrate to Mount Doom. Those are just my thoughts, feel free to rebutt them
.