[Boromir88]

Alright, back for the rest of the day. I haven't read any posts after my last one #139 yet, I wanted to expand more on my suspicions about Legate's vote analysis post:

Originally Posted by Legate

I have never said that we should look only at these and disregard all the other votes (and I think a large share of my post was devoted to considering others, Morsul included). And you are right that Morsul started the bandwagon, and I am not contradicting that - even though I daresay that with having already a vote at that point, whether he is a Wolf or innocent, he would have likely acted similarly.

True and I never claimed otherwise. 6 people voted for Greenie and Huey yesterday...in order it was:

Morsul > Huey
Lommy > Huey (2)
Legate > Greenie
Huey > Greenie (2)
Lottie > Greenie (3)
Pitch > Huey (3)

It's also true that you considered Morsul being the first to vote for Huey, but to me, you very clearly wanted to put the attention to those who cast the 2nd votes (Huey and Lommy)

Originally Posted by Legate

Under this model, there are lots of singular votes that by themselves do not say much except that they are still creating alternatives (and at the same time are potentially throwaway). Whom I would put under scrutiny are actually the people who made the second votes, thus making the bandwagons roll (Lommy and Hui, with the added value that Hui was acting clearly with the bonus to prevent a wagon against himself - the question of course being that he could have equally well voted for Morsul or Pitch, if it was just about that). Either of them could have acted as Wolves protecting one of Morsul or Pitch (who had votes from before) by supporting bandwagons for somebody else.

(Bolding my emphasis)

And my argument is, a single vote a bandwagon does not make, but a single vote has the same potential to start a bandwagon. What I mean is with Lottie's vote yesterday:

Originally Posted by Lottie

Okay, it's getting towards the deadline, and I'm still struggling a bit with this one. I would honestly prefer to vote Morsul or Pitch, but I don't know who all is still around to vote, so I'm probably going to go with one of the two candidates who've received multiple votes, at least in part to make sure it's less likely a sudden bandwagon on Boro's vote leaves me all alone in the Dead Thread ().

My first reaction is why is Lottie nervous about acquiring a single vote (mine)? But she's right and it's a good point to consider when looking at votes. At that time Huey and Greenie had 2, with 3 others (not including Lottie) left to vote my vote had the same potential to start a bandwagon, as did anyone else who made the first vote for someone else.

If you want to call my vote a throwaway, I can see that being the case for people who don't know my alignment. I still would beg to disagree. It was Lottie's and Pitch's vote that made mine a "throwaway." I was pretty clear throughout the day I was more worried about Lottie and voted that way. Lottie herself admitted there was the possibility that she could be bandwagon lynched. So, in my opinion, to call my vote a "throwaway" is inaccurate, it's only a throwaway because Lottie's, Pitch's votes, plus sally's and Soriman not voting made it a throwaway.

Now I did make a mistake in not recognizing Legate's comments on Pitch's vote:

Originally Posted by Legate

Interestingly enough, purely based on vibe when looking at the list of votes, Pitch's vote strikes me as rather sinister because he had his opinions, then voted for Hui. And that was at the point when Greenie was leading, and Soriman was left to vote (with it not being sure whether he will). So Pitch's vote was potentially throwaway (if e.g. again the scenario that Hui was a Wolf was true - he would no longer endanger a packmate and at the same time distance himself from him) and at the same time not getting his "hands dirty" in lynching an innocent.

I chalked this up to perhaps being a language barrier difference, because I agreed with your overall conclusion that Pitch's vote was a throwaway and looks like "keeping record clean" when Greenie is revealed innocent. I didn't register Legate categorizing Pitch's vote as sinister until Huey brought it up in his post #134.

It may very well be a language barrier thing, but if anything Lottie's vote is the sinister one and Pitch's is the "safe throwaway." What I mean is this:

I don't know Pitch's alignment and I don't know Huey's alignment, we all know Greenie is innocent. If Pitch is a wolf in this scenario, he would know even casting a 3rd vote for Huey the innocent-Greenie would still be lynched, thus it's safe and "keeps his record clean."

That is the case, if I go with the assumption Pitch is a wolf. The problem with just going by that assumption is I don't know Pitch's alignment, and I don't know Huey's alignment. I do now know Greenie's alignment, therefor of the voters who brought Greenie and Huey to 3, the more suspicious vote is Lottie's being the vote that lynched a known innocent.

I'd be even wary of classifying Lottie's vote as "sinister" because that would suggest I know Lottie's a wolf and thus was motivated to get Greenie lynched. But currently as far as I know, Pitch is an unknown alignment, and Huey is an unknown alignment, so I don't know how his vote for someone's alignment I do not know should be classified as evil.

Ok, will read and catch up on the posts I missed.