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Old 06-07-2020, 12:56 PM   #254
Macalaure
Fading Fëanorion
 
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Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: into the flood again
Posts: 2,947
Macalaure is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Macalaure is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Macalaure is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.
Just skimmed the Day to see if anything pops out.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BG
I've been keeping a spreadsheet with all my thoughts about ya'll in it. The first person that I ever suspected was Form, right from his first post. I just didn't say anything. Then at the last minute (while on a dying cell phone) I realized that was a bad idea. Oh well.
I probably shouldn't even say thing because one of my last games (years and years ago) I go lynched solely on my explanation of why I voted as I did.
If you don't say it, it didn't happen. Anyway though, I'm buying this explanation. I actually find it a little eyebrow-raising that Brinn and Legate are so over this.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitch
I don't follow this at all. When is it ever NOT a good idea for wolves to kill someone they think the Seer? ESPECIALLY when she has only dreamed an innocent so far? But I get why you would want to dissuade us from the idea that Lottie was killed as a possible Seer...
It definitely depends on how sure you are, though. Say you're a wolf and someone suspects you Day1 and then you night-kill them for suspecting them to be the seer, but you happen to be wrong. Now you repeat that during the next night and the next and... there's no way the village lets you live through all of that. With all seer-hunting, wolves also have to make sure the kills don't leave an obvious trail. A vague seer suspicion might not always be worth it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitch
This is actually worse than Nog & Nilp about Mac. Whatever Form is, I can't imagine why whe'd write any of this as an innocent. *ping*
I agree that it might be worse - it could be a cobbler testing the water in a "friend or foe?" kind of way. On the other hand, innocents do that, too - "hm, xx is acting strange, but are they a wolf or gifted?". It shouldn't be said out loud, but it can happen. So I would say Nog > Nilp > Form in terms of suspiciousness.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae
Mac, should I tell them about your non-WW spreadsheets?
No spreadsheet-shaming!

Quote:
This is slightly pinging my radar because it seems like Mac is downplaying the possibility to gain some insight from the voting pattern here, especially if one of Nilp or Form actually happen to be Wolves.
That's not exactly what I meant. There's two ways to interpret the voting, I think:

- One or both of Nilp and Form is a wolf and the wolves needed Hui to die instead. Rikae tieing him with Form, and then of course Nog and Kath's votes are suspicious in this case.

- Or neither is a wolf, in which case the wolves could've done anything they wanted, with throwaway-votes being slightly suspicious (Brinn, Pitch, and yes, me).

In the latter case, yes, learning anything from the voting is tough. In the former case, all I'm saying is that smart wolves shouldn't have panicked over it. This would make Kath in particular look better.
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