[Nilpaurion Felagund]

(Time reckoned from the start of the DAY, as always.)

First vote: Shasta

22:16: Wonders if hS was the Nightmare Wolf.

22:18: Clarified his thoughts above.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Pushing buttons in the manner Huin is likely to result in votes. In my own opinion, the NW wants to die early in order to get the most potential Gifted-blocks in; I've thought that since I saw the idea.

2246: Voted for him.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

While I liked his answer to me re: pushing buttons, I don't have anywhere else I'm comfortable voting.

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Interlude: Huinesoron's vote post

2312: Significant in light of later events.

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Second vote: Rikae

2227: Shares thoughts on what appears to be the Three Cobblers + hS.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Hui - Lottie's post described other people more than Hui, so for him to read it that way looks an awful lot like a guilty conscience

(Quick summary: Lottie [1836] expects the Nightmare Wolf 'to play as loud and bold as possible'. hS [2018] posts a Kath description of him [1901] that he paraphrases as his being described as playing 'loud and bold', and thought that it was a setup for bringing down suspicion on him.)

2339: Votes for him.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Too many people either absent or lurking

Oh well, my strongest suspicion at this point:

++Huinesoron

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Third vote: Nogrod

2321: Noticed irregularities in hS's vote post immediately.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Well, that was an interesting vote. What on earth that was supposed to mean?

2325: Lommy responds to Nog's suspicion.

2332: Nogrod clarifies his suspicion.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I don't mean that. We all can see him changing his mind (or him letting us understand he changes his mind). But if he was an innocent, wouldn't he have said that:

"For my initial trust on Form - and my dodgy judgement..."

and not

"For my earlier suspicions - and my dodgy judgement..."

If you're an innocent you do know whether you thought of someone as innocent or suspected that person. If you're a wolf, you can easily miss that, especially as "because of my earlier suspicions" is kind of a general way to put it?

This discussion continues in Lommy's 2336 post and Nog's 2343 post. Quoting the latter:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Yes and no. I see it more likely as a slip.

If you're an innocent and honestly think someone is innocent and then decide to vote that person on grounds of that person doing something you detest at the last hour, you don't reason for it on the basis of your earlier suspicions!

2346: Votes for him.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Ok. I'll try to also learn this "voting before the absolute last minute" as well.

++ Huinesoron

I'm not confident about this, but that's the best one I can reason myself to stand behind.

2349: Pitch comments on Nog's suspicions (among other things).

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

How would "For my initial trust..." be a valid reasoning for voting someone?

IIRC Hui actually had some early suspicion of Formy, then after pushing (TM) him a bit thought him innocent based on his reactions, then changed his mind again in the eleventh hour. It was a sudden turn, to be sure, with reasoning borrowed from the posts above him, but I can't find fault with the reasoning itself.

2354: Nog replies.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Because he adds the next, "because of his poor judgement".

So: "I trusted X but nah, I have poor judgement, therefore I vote X".

I would have understood that.

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Fourth vote: Kath

1846: Shares 'spurious Day 1 reasoning level suspicions.'

Originally Posted by Kath

+-Hui - he is 'pushing' everyone but not particularly saying a lot himself.

2343: Surmises a BG-hS connexion.

Originally Posted by Kath

Having just skimmed through, the biggest thing worrying me here is the way Blind Guardian just jumped on Hui's vote. It felt very like a newbie wolf following the footsteps of a more experienced packmate.

Of course, that assumes Hui's guilt but it stuck out to me.

2348: Votes for him.

Originally Posted by Kath

Well I am going to assume not all the wolves have voted yet and go for Hui to see what happens after that.

++HUI

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Others' comments on the Huiagon:

2351: From Mac:

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I really feel like we're at best lynching the cobbler with Hui.

2352: Lottie concurs.

2355: Form's vote post comments on hS.

Originally Posted by Formendacil

I think Huin is being slightly railroaded, having been a loud voice today and while that doens't mean he's not a wolf, it doesn't mean he is. And as someone else who's been comparative vocal, I'm leaning away from that being a good reason to vote.

2358: Lottie comments on the absolute state of the voting at that point.

Originally Posted by Loslote

If wolves were trying to save Huin, they have easy candidates in Form and Nilp. It probably doesn't bode well here that we're not seeing a push towards anyone else.

This is a fitting last part. I believe that this is a cogent summary of the voting on DAY 1. It reinforces my belief (q.v.) that none of the Wolves were in any danger of the noose.

(inb4 'of course you'd say that, you're one of the suspects!')

hS's four votes were accrued over about an hour, I got two votes in 15 minutes (not including my vote), and Form's three votes were spread over a 40-odd-minute period. Considering that there were 14 votes within the last 74 minutes (and 13 within the last 48), a handful of votes should not have been decisive.

And as mentioned in the post linked to above, Form and I got votes after hS's last, but the outcome was unchanged.

As for the Huiagon itself, it has been built upon what I would assume are typical DAY 1 reasons for voting someone. There were up to four, ah, distinctive personalities that were presented for voting, and he was the unlucky winner.