[Galadriel55]

I only quoted the posts I think important. And I only read the thread up to my last post; I refreshed the thread and saw that Pitch (and perhaps others) posted after it, but I want to post this first and then read new posts.


Shasta

DAY1:

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Funnily enough, I was going to say relatively the same thing... only replacing your name with Eomer's. Hmm. I do need to vote (I'm about to hit the hay), so I think I'm going to go ahead and vote for -

++Nessa

There were only two votes at that point, both for Kit. This vote for Nessa looks more like a psychic at work than a wolf bussing a mate.

DAY2:

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Right, I'm here, and reading. Bit of luck on the Nessa vote - I noted someone else had seen what I'd seen about her, and something was telling me "bad!" and I had to vote, so. I apologize for my relative lack of being here. I'll do better.

Sounds realistic enough.

#112 is long and my comments short. Just a few remarks, replying to the other's comments. Asks for a few clarifications. Doesn't like sally's post.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Right, so, we've got Kitanna versus Inzil for today. I'm going to go back and look at Day 1 - although, interestingly, a Kitwolf would know all the innocents in the village, plus, this is a prime opportunity to mess with the village's mind should she be lynched (she tells us Person A is a dreamt innocent, dies a wolf. Was she trying to protect Person A (her packmate)? Was she trying to get them lynched via WIFOM? etc.)

It's weird to me that a Kitwolf wouldn't just go ahead and say someone was innocent. Whereas a frustrated innocent Kit might just be contrary because she's not being believed.

I entirely agree with this post, and this was part of my reasining for voting Zil yesterDay. Aside from that, I think that if Shasta is the last wolf he was rather mean to Zil. Had he not so obviously chose Kit as Seer here and continued with this attitude, he could have likely saved his mate. I know Shasta isn't the kind to feel bad about bussing mates, especially those that will be dead anyway the next Day at the latest, but the Kitwagon was going well and he could have bought Zil another Day with little risk to himself. This post basically changed the vote pattern around. (There was one vote for Zil and 3 for Kit at that point). This makes me think of Shasta as more innocent.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

#15 - Inzil says Kit strikes him as "a bit off, but it's really a thin thing."

#22 - Inzil on Kit again - "some ill-defined feeling of unease"

#23 - Kit wants a reason for Inzil's suspicion.

#24 - Inzil mentions "the feel of the first couple posts."

#48 - Inzil - "It is a bit suspicious the way Sally latched onto what I said about Kit. Funny thing is, I was trying earlier to bait the hook with Coppermirror, not Kit."

#49 - Inzil votes Kit.

#52 - Kit - "I'll probably vote for Zil at this point. Because I don't like his "Kit strikes me as a bit off, but it's really a thin thing." and "I was trying earlier to bait the hook with Coppermirror, not Kit.""

#62 - Kit votes Inzil.

Conclusion - Well, it does look like a standard Seer lead-up on Inzil's part, and Kit does look a bit retaliatory, as though she's realized she's in trouble. But if that's so, and Kitwolf did realize Inzilgast had dreamt her, why not kill Inzil last night?

No comment.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Which means I'll be casting a deciding(ish) vote.

However, it's an easy one at this stage of the game.

++Inzil

Besides everything that's left me in favor of Kit as the real Seer, G55 (should she return) was already planning a vote for Inzil. Tying it up would be silly.

It was 3-3 when Shasta voted.




Eomer

DAY1:

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

I do agree with Nerwen's last post. Problem is that it's a smart post for a wolf to make. Given Inzil's suspicion of Kitanna, especially the nature of that suspicion (based on 'feel') any subsequent vote for Kitanna is going to be scrutinised.

Would a wolf-Sally walk into that, though? Probably not, though maybe.

It's a really small village and the wolves could win quickly. They could be trying a bold manoeuvre. Say, wolf-Inzil spies their first victim (Kitanna made early posts) and sets it up for Sally to make the vote. Nerwen then jumps in to criticise that vote.

We could be looking at a move here. Inzil plus either Sally or Nerwen as packmates.

So two of these are proven ordos and one is a proven wolf. I can see an Ordomer guess one out of three, and I can also see a Wolfomer throw a packmate into a list of suspects.

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

At the risk of defending her and creating a sort of 'faction', there's something weird about Inzil's insistence on Kitanna. Trying to bait Coppermirror but ending up with Kit? I've just re-read the thread and I don't really see it.

Also, not at all clear how he feels he can judge Nerwen or Nessa's role by discovery of Kitanna's.

Eomer insists on questioning Inzil. I haven't played with him as a wolf yet, but I imagine he would have no trouble dumping a mate into deep water. This would make Wolfomer look good later if Inzilafolf is lynched: Eomer casts some doubt on him ("see, I suspected him too!") but at such a time when it was safe to do so.

Yet the above scenario is also a bit of a stretch. It could just be Ordomer suspecting a wolf.

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

If he had picked on innocent Kitanna, though, Inzil has vowed to go after Sally. So it seems unlikely that, if he's wolvish, that Sally is too.

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

I don't like either of the two votes for Nessa NOR do I like Nessa's vote for Pitch.

Votes Sally. This vote would fit in nicely with the scenario of a Wolfomer casting just enough suspicion on Zil to make the survivor look innocent should one of them be lynched. First he makes a combination of Zil-sally-Nerwen. Goes after Zil. Decides Zil and sally can't be wolves together. Votes Sally. Very cleanly done, if he's a wolf. And if he's not, that's also possible.

What picks me is that the two players with the most votes (Kit and Nessa) barely got a mention from him. All Day. Even at the end of the Day when all the talk was about them. I don't love the fixation on Inzil and sally.

DAY2:

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

As I was asked about it, I will explain why I didn't like the first two votes for Nessa.

Nessa's post #42 is where it all fell apart for her, which I find.... rather fortuitous. She comments that she suspected Sally's actions in jumping onto Inziladun's train of thought, and voting for Kitanna.

To my mind, there is nothing suspicious here. Wasn't everyone a bit suspicious of what Sally did? But then Nerwen (proven innocent now) suspects Nessa from this, and Shasta jumps in with a vote. Coppermirror then votes for Nessa too, albeit with a better reason (Nessa's vote for Pitch). Coppermirror then clarified that the earlier 'suspicion' of Nessa was not a deciding factor, and so I look more favourably on her now.

G55's vote makes her look very innocent, that's true. I am less inclined to drop my guard around Shasta, however.

Ok.

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Inziladun,

Looking back.... I'm not really sure how I got confused!

So, to clarify: you did not really suspect Coppermirror, but were trying to hook a wolf into that particular net. Nothing came of it.

Your suspicion of Kitanna was genuine, and it inadvertently snared someone (Sally: whether good or evil we don't know, of course).

Apologies for being slow!

However, this does nothing to stop me from thinking your suspicion of Kitanna is weird.

So keeps Zil hanging out there in the middle. Neither here nor there.

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Whichever one it is, there will be connexions to analyse from Day One: both Kitanna and Inzil were in the thick of things. And considering that first days are often uneventful and lacking in content, I'm glad our Seer battle is between these two!

Hmm.

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Would it not be likely that, were Kitanna a wolf, they would have killed obvious-Seer Inzil last night? I'm inclined to believe Kitanna at this stage. But it doesn't really matter because they'll both be dead by tomorrow. We need to find the third wolf.

For my money, Coppermirror and G55 are probably innocent. Their votes for Nessa were crucial.

Just like Shasta, Eomer takes Kit's side when there's still a chance to save Zil. But now less of a chance; Shasta and I all but voted already. So this post does not necessarily speak in favour of Eomer innocence.

Also, I don't like the "it doesn't matter" attitude. I think it matters very much if we get a wolf earlier rather than later.

#129 - Votes Zil.

DAY3:

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

The only thing that looks certain, from Inzil's posts, is that Sally is innocent. That's... helpful.

I would also propose that Inzil was trying to buddy up with Pitch, early in Day Two. I get the feeling from this interaction that Pitch is innocent. Add to that list Coppermirror and G55, due to their votes for Nessa, and my guess for third wolf is the one left over:

Shasta.

Ok.





Pitchie

DAY2:

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Seriously, sorry for doing a Kath yesterDay and thanks to Shasta, Cop and Gal for foiling Nessa Fenrinya's attempt on my unprotected life. Speaking of which, I wonder how much hope she had it would succeed - I mean, there had been some talk of submarine-hunting earlier, but lynching somebody who's in danger of modfire anyway would be considered a wasted lynch in most villages, especially one so small.

If, however, she felt she could afford to make a throwaway vote, there must either have been some chance of lynching an innocent at the time she voted - which would speak for Kit and against sally and/or Zil - , or her packmates hadn't voted yet and she was leaving things in their hands - which would point to those who voted after but not for her, i.e. Kit and Eomer (disregarding for now the possibility of wolf-on-wolf votes).

Now if the latter is true and Kit is one of the wolves, that would mean there were two wolves in danger of being lynched yesterDay and no innocent bandwagon to fall back on; which would explain the lack of any concerted attempt to save Nessa. But in this case I'd have expected to find Zil dead toDay instead of Nerwen.

* * *

Good questions both, I'd like to hear that too. But Cop, why did you think Nerwen a possible seer?

Neutral observations, imo. Doesn't say anything particular about role.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Or, as she was already gathering suspicion at the time, she might have voted for packmate-Pitch in order to make me look good in case she ended up lynched; except she didn't because I ain't.

Objective observation or a self-deprecating wolf?

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Um, why would she want to distance herself from the lynching of a wolf? Doesn't make sense to me (unlike the rest of your reasoning here).


The thing is, everything she said against Nessa or other people was based on sound reasoning, and nothing looks to me like it was arrived at by Nightly inspiration. Trailless kill seems much more likely to me.

(x-ed with Kit and Cop. )

True.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

She's not saying she thinks, she says she knows.

Kit, when did you gain this knowledge?

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Also, since you'll be dead toMorrow, I think it would be a good idea to tell us your other dream and give us a known innocent (assuming you didn't dream another wolf, in which case I'd think you'd have said so).

So far so good again. Nothing role-revealing.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Kit, if you're the true Seer and know a living innocent, name them, for Eru's sake! You'll be dead toMorrow either way, but a known innocent means one person less the wolves can get lynched, one more they'll have to use a Night-kill on, one person we know has no ulterior motives in what they say, one more chance for us to lynch a wolf. Withholding this benefit from us just because we don't trust you blindly would be dereliction of duty in a Seer.

All right, so yesterDay that post got me into a mood that really went not in Pitchie's favour. The reason for that is that I've seen almost exact copies of that post said by wolves who want to avoid any extra interaction that may get them under suspicion, or to hide the fact that they have extra knowledge behind the convenient situation that now everyone knows it.

Now, though, as I reread the thread I can see a reason for an innocent Pitch to be so passionate about it. Kit didn't say she'll wait a bit before giving the name. She said she won't give it to a village that doesn't trust her, which, from a certain point of view, could sound ridiculous.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Hm, I must say you did strike me as the most seerish-looking person in this village exactly because of the vagueness of your suspicion.

Let's not be hasty though. I seem to remember I helped to lynch a seer Kit once, I'd be loath to repeat that mistake. But I must say her "I know a living innocent but I'm not going to tell you" attitude isn't exactly trust-inspiring.

Would that not be a convenient post for a wolf to make? "I don't like it, so that's my excuse for when she turns out innocent, but I'll vote her anyway since she, after all, is more suspicious and less believable and etc [insert "reasons"]".

But on the other hand, again, Pitch could just be an innocent who believed Zil but had a genuine bad feeling about lynching Kit.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

And if we lynch Zil and find him genuine, the point will be moot anyway, is that it?

That's said about Kit's refusal to name the dreamed innocent.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

I have to vote now, as it's bedtime for me and I most likely won't be able to come online again before DL (which is near the end of my workday).

I hate this whole situation, and if Kit's a wolf, she does the angry frustrated innocent part really well. Also I concur with some of her analyses, most notably those of Cop (whom I think more probably innocent, however) and Eomer (funny, since I considered him a likely packmate for a Kitwolf earlier).

How likely is it, though, that a Zilwolf just happened to random-suspect our seer, of all people, in a seerish-looking way? Also, how much danger of getting lynched toDay was Kit really in prior to her reveal? (Yes, I mentioned her as a possible packmate of Nessa's in my first post, and the thought that Zil was the seer and had dreamed her had crossed my mind, but his continuing existence among the living cast a lot of doubt on that.) What I'm saying is wolvish guilt may have led her to underestimate her chances.

I really think it makes more sense the other way 'round, and Kitwolf is sacrificing herself in order to take down the seer before he can dream her last packmate.

Therefore
++Kitanna

Zil, if you're a wolf, well done. Kit, if you're a wolf, that was a brave attempt; if you're the real seer, may we meet in the flesh some day so you can slap me to your heart's content.

Can't tell much about the intentions behind the words from the arguments; they are true and most things are taken in consideration. The vote for Kit could be cast by a confused ordo (sally's there too) or a knowing wolf. But it works just a bit too well if Pitch is the last wolf who was trying to save his mate, and since he voted early it explains why no one gave the final push to the Kitwagon. Unless the remaining wolf is bold and confident enough to sacrifice Zil just in case, even when there was a good chance of saving him.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Just a note before I leave:

Shasta voted Nessa before she voted me. He was laconic enough about his reasons, but if I understand him right, he was going exclusively on the latching-on point mentioned by Nerwen.

A correction. Quite true.




Anyways, I still don't have a clear picture of who might be the last wolf, but Pitch and Eomer seem to me more likely choices than Shasta.