[Huinesoron]

#-1:

Originally Posted by Pitch

Folks, can we please refer to Rikae as they/them/their? Thank you.

Thank you, Pitch, and sorry, Rikae. I've gone back and edited my first post toDay (solely for pronouns and verb-agreement); will look at my yesterDay's posts later.

#-1.5:

Or is that -0.5? Anyway, while doing that I found that I'd highlighted Rikae as the first person with what seemed to me a solid reason for voting Brinn. So that makes sense.

#0: There's a medium chance I may be suddenly unavailable starting ~2 hours before DL. Since my alternatives are 'vote early and maybe get to be here anyway' and 'don't vote early and maybe miss the vote', and to maintain full transparency, what I'm going to do is state my 'prospective early vote' around 2h15 before DL, and write up (but not post) a quick post making it official. If I can't read or write anything, I should at least be able to snatch five seconds to send that vote through. If I can spend actual time on the thread, I'll just scrap the stored post and take the last couple of hours into account. It's not great, but it's the best compromise I can find, and I figured I'd say well in advance.

Okay, on to the overview. Before I'm accused of being "helpful" again (Is there a term for the opposite of "damning with faint praise"? I feel like I'm being praised with faint damning!), I will say that these 'look at everything' posts are actually just my notes while catching up; I share them in the hopes that a) if my suspicions hold up we can catch the wolves and b) other people might spot things I missed.

I'm seeing a very quick division of the "why Rikae" discussion into two sides: Zil in #287 blames her place on the Brinn-wagon, and Lottie in #288 blames her fight with G55. Both of these seem reasonable (after all, if I'm right about Brinn's innocence, I'm sure the wolves would love to make her look guilty and get her killed!), but the fact that they come so close together makes me suspicious. Could this be a pre-planned exchange between two wolves? If they actually killed Rikae for a third reason, framing the discussion this way could keep people from noticing.

… actually, as Boro points out in #293, Zil and Lottie were the two people Rikae called out as suspicious for being on the "anti-Brinn wagon". So that could be their reason right there. (Lommy mentions the Wolves seeing Rikae as a possible Seer in #298; I'd say that confirms she's not in a Zil-Lottie pack, at least).

Originally Posted by Pitch

This, I feel, is a distorting abbreviation of what I actually said. I said that there was probably a wolf among those suspecting me (i.e. Rikae, Brinn, Kit & Lottie), but didn't suspect Rikae specifically (rather the contrary). The paradox was I was getting non-wolvish vibes from both of them. I admit my post was pretty condensed, but was I so unclear or are you deliberately misreading me?

Ah, right. My mistake was reading 'there's probably a wolf here' as 'I think any of these could be a wolf, but don't know which'; I didn't connect the fact that the later part was you whittling down that list. I get it now.

#309 is a worrying post from Legate: he manages to imply lynching a wolf would be a bad thing, and straight up say that lynching the cobbler was 'unfortunate'. I've leaned innocent on Legate from the start, but I think that was mostly from the GLP; given that that was being stirred up by a cobbler, I think I'm going to have to consciously shake my impressions from it free.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Of the people who were "on the table" when I voted, I thought Pitchwife looked the most innocent, but I didn't have much of a preference as for Gal vs Brinn. I suspected both of them a little, but neither was my top suspect. (Gal looked maybe more suspicious to me than Brinn, but more likely of the two to turn out to be a mere cobbler if evil.) Since the last few votes (looking at the tally, I think Rune and Ka's for Brinn), it clarified the overall situation to me that it's likely to be Gal vs Brinn in the end and I was okay with either. So I thought I might as well cast my vote then (and not later) and decided to vote Gal whose bandwagon seemed to me to have less momentum. What I meant by "let's make this more interesting" was "let's see if anyone rushes to save Gal, or joins the bandwagon after me to save Brinn". Adding a new vote candidate 15min before the dl when 2/3 of the village had already voted would have been the opposite of making it interesting…

Hmm. I think my issue with this is that keeping the vote evenly split didn't make things interesting. I can see how it kept things interesting, but 'make' sounds like you laying the groundwork to claim credit for whatever the result turned out to be.

#314 & #315: More back-to-back Lottie/Zil posts, this time backing each other up in their suspicion of Rune, but in a "he's not suspicious, just suspicious" way.

Originally Posted by Legate

Huinesoron's first post makes me wonder, because on the one hand, the way he's describing his Nightly activity as scribbling this post - which he clearly did - makes it more likely to be an innocent's endeavour; but on the other hand, I am just returning to my misgivings yesterDay and wondering whether he's exactly not being "helpful" here (perhaps WW with enought time on his hands, can imagine) plus subtly steering the discussion back to the "threesome" - and perhaps to Pitch, his yesterDay's suspect. If Pitch was innocent, it would be a safe way for a Wolf to keep on track with consistent suspicion onto a Day that starts the same way as the previous one: with the Village having nearly zero info.

What did I say? I'm "helpful"! I think a fair reading of my post will show that I wasn't specifically focussing on Pitch; it was just that he kept coming up! If I'd spent a chunk of the post trying to re-justify PitchWolf-GalaWolf as PitchWolf-Cobbler55, I could see this argument (as a wolf framing an innocent wouldn't have new evidence to go on). But other than a one-line mention that it didn't straight-up clear him, I think everything I said about him was from later, unrelated posts.

Ultimately, while I try to take a blank slate approach with these long posts, my suspicions don't go away just because it's a new Day. That sounds like what I'd expect from a wolf.

… in that spirit, then, and given my worries a few posts up about Legate, I'm going to set aside my innocent-lean on him and blank-slate this post (#318). And… overall, it looks like something from an innocent, not a wolf. I don't agree with his suspicions of Brinn, but it reads like he honestly has them (and as he says to Lottie, even 'don't suspect' isn't the same as 'know is innocent'). His multiple digressions onto wolf psychology could be wolfish distraction, but we've seen enough of this from all corners that I think it's just the equivalent of Day 1 banter.

Boro's #324 has more of the 'Brinn is very wolfy (but for no particular reason)' feel I've been getting from so many people. This is why I don't trust the Brinn-wagon: it feels like somewhere early on in it, a wolf managed to shape people's perception of Brinn so that everyone started seeing her as sketchy but without solid reasons. Pitch's 'just asking questions' posts (I think I mentioned 2 or 3 in my earlier post) seem like a prime candidate for the culprit.

Interestingly, Boro also notes a Zil/Lottie suspect pair. And is then followed up by Zil yet again (see #290) discussing suspicions he had which were proved wrong. Not analysing them any further, just talking about "wolves" we know aren't.

#327 gives me pause, because of the reminder that Lottie was the person whose suspicions I most agreed with on Day 1. If she's a wolf, then does it follow that I'm straight up wrong about PitchWolf? Maybe.

My main problem is that Lottie doesn't seem wolfish to me in isolation, just in her interactions with Zil. So I don't really know what to make of that.

(I'm closing on 2 hours into this and my brain is glazing over.)

I'm in two minds on Kitanna's study of the low-posters. On the one hand, spotting quiet wolves is a worthwhile endeavour, particularly since they had G55 vs Rikae to hide under yesterday. On the other hand, their lack of posts surely makes it unlikely that you're going to find much evidence? And yet somehow Urwen, who has not really engaged with the thread at all, gets a full screen of commentary.

Mac in #331 does some very nice looking analysis of… why G55 might have gone after Rikae. I'm not sure why this matters? He can't be leading into a 'maybe the wolves thought the same way', because his theory rests on G55 thinking he was a wolf. So… I'm confused.

Boro repeats the Brinn-wolf theory, leaning on the 'trap' comment (which was Rikae's catch, and we know Rikae is innocent). Which… yes, it's still a plausible argument, but it was never the main one used yesterDay. I think any discussion of Brinn's near-lynch which doesn't take that into account comes worryingly close to attempting to hide it. (And Boro didn't vote Brinn yesterday…)

Brinn and Eonwe both pop in with lists of possibilities, which both then use to say 'there's so many options we can't tell, so why think about it?'. Unlike Lommy yesterDay, I don't think I can look at this and think 'one is innocent, one is guilty'. Quiet!Eonwe still worries me a bit, but I'll call this one a wash. I'm going to note his Boro-Pitch theory here to look back on; I don't think I'm following it correctly right now, so I want to read it again later.

Originally Posted by Greenie

Nooooooooooooooo!

"A little bit of Werewolf on the Downs
A little bit of Cobbler makes me frown…"

(Got to admit, I didn't know those lyrics went to that song. I've learned something today!)

THE Ka's analysis of Rikae's 'wolf-bait'... something that jumped out at me was this quote from Pitch replying to me(?):

Originally Posted by Pitch

I don't think I've seen that many people suspecting Mac to a significant amount (Rikae, of course, myself a bit, who else?), more like saying he's creepy & scary no matter what. Anyway, it's always good for a wolf pack not to get all entangled in the same skirmish but spread themselves out in several combat zones, so to speak.

Coupled with this from THE Ka:

Originally Posted by THE Ka

This one… I’ve been trying to read for awhile now. I’ve even agreed with them on occasion when they’ve given small isolated replies.

I think that's exactly what I feel. When Pitch replies to me, addressing a concern I raised, I nod along and go 'yes, good point, I understand now'. But when he's not specifically trying to answer someone's suspicions of him, he just sets off so many alarm bells.

I've just refreshed and seen Legate's #345 'endless scroll' comment, and I'm feeling the same myself. But there's only five posts to go…

Greenie draws out what I was thinking about 'all the options' from Brinn by saying it looks like she's saying we should ignore the night-kill as implicating her. This is the sort of reasoning I'd expect to see on a legitimate Brinn analysis; I stand by my statement that most of yesterDay's logic was just 'she feels bad' stated in different words.

Lommy is right that Boro's 'the first vote on Brinn is least suspicious' line is suspicious in itself; it's not like there wasn't a lot of suspicion on Brinn at the time! And… I'm up to date!

Now to remember what I've said over the last, uh, three hours… :O

Okay. Pitch and Lommy were my main suspicions yesterday; they don't look as bad (so far) today, but neither am I totally comfortable with them. Zil looks dodgy, Lottie looks dodgy but only when paired with Zil. Boro is giving me bad vibes but nothing I can articulate, and I don't like Mac's 'what if everyone thinks I'm a wolf' theory much at all.

On the innocent side: Greenie has does good work on (actual reasons) why Brinn might be suspicious, and Legate is still striking me as innocent. Brinn herself… I agree that the evidence is piling up, but I still think the Brinn-wagon was suspicious as all get-out, so can't see how she could be a wolf.

Hopefully I can stay current and non-wall-of-text-y for the next few hours.

hS