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Old 06-09-2020, 01:48 AM   #356
A Little Green
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I’m not sure what to make of how convinced Mac suddenly is that Form is a wolf – convinced enough to base the rest of his judgments on players on whether or not they could be fellows with Form. Is this just the BG kill, or am I missing something from earlier? My notes say he had Form down as “no read whatsoever” still yesterDay. Or is it like what Shasta said about Form being the runner-up both Days and surviving? (That's a fair point, incidentally.)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mac
Form -> Kath - if you were to interpret this vote very sinisterly, Form could see himself in danger of being lynched from afar and tries to back the first best choice to compete with him. The suspicion of Kath he voiced before sounds a bit generic.

Kath -> Nilp - Form's vote for Kath makes it fairly unlikely that they are wolves together, so that makes this vote look fairly good.
This doesn’t make any sense. Like, the argument against Form here is fair enough, and I agree it makes Form and Kath look like a fairly unlikely pairing, but how does that alone make Kath’s vote look good? Why is a scenario where Kath is a wolf and Form isn’t not an option? This then continues with -

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mac
Pitch -> Nogrod - this is the interesting Nog vote, I think. Pitch only mentions him in an early-day list of suspects and other than that keeps his options very wide open. Also, in #316 he mentions all that had votes at the time except Kath. So this makes me think they may be wolves together. Then again, I don't actually think Kath is that suspicious, so these two pieces don't fit right now. Unless if Form is innocent, but that's too many ifs right here.
Again, I agree with the basic conclusion here – Pitch’s vote looks possibly the sketchiest of the Nog-lot, especially in connection with Kath. But again, Mac refutes this with how this would only fit if Form was innocent, but that’s too many ifs. Like, where did this come from? How is "if Form is innocent" more of a stretch than "if Form is a wolf"?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mac
Brinn -> Nogrod - been after him all day, so due to consistency this vote is less suspicious than it would otherwise be

Lastly, while it's possible that Hui and Lottie made Brinn the medium for the entertainment value, but I'm going to give them the benefit of the doubt (yes, I know, they're just ordos, too) and will give her a pass for toDay, not that I was really suspicious of her to begin with.
Unrelated to Form, but I don’t agree with these conclusions about Brinn at all and in fact this makes me somewhat uneasy. First of all, I don’t think consistency equals innocence – a Brinnwolf would be just as likely to remain consistent with her earlier case against Nog as an innocent Brinn. It’s perfectly easy for a wolf to be consistent, so I don’t think Brinn’s consistence alone is a sign of anything. And second, if you don’t suspect Brinn, that’s absolutely fine, but I don’t get why the Medium thing is an argument for giving her a free pass. Even if the dead thread weren’t trolling (I love it if they were btw ), they don’t know anything more than we do. Last game, we had a dead wolf in there pretty early on, so there was a possibility the dead thread had some information we didn’t (ie. he might have let something slip). Here, unfortunately our dead thread consists of ordos, who know just as little as everyone here.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sally
Brinn's vote logic yesterDay looks very good to me. Granted, if it turns out Form is a wolf, I may have to rethink that (talking about voting him and then going back on it), but I understand where she's coming from; if your top candidate becomes a viable lynch target, you take the opportunity. All in all, I feel good about her.
In a similar vein, I agreed with a lot of things in Sally’s list but this bit not so much. I do agree an innocent Brinn could have done that, but a Brinnwolf who had suspected Nog previously could do it just as well – especially if Form is a wolf. And that’s curious as well actually – Sally and Mac both suspect Form, but where Mac interprets everything based on whether it tallies with Form being a wolf to the point it looks odd, Sally seems to do the opposite to the point it looks odd too. This makes me wonder about Sally – the bit about Brinn looking good but how she might have to reconsider if Form turns out a wolf as her vote could have been to save Form, doesn’t make sense if Form really is her top suspect like she says in that same post. Like, if she genuinely thinks Form is the likeliest wolf here, I’d think looking at his possible fellows would factor into her judgments more than as an aside.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sally
I also think Pitch's exasperation at BG's gifted ponderings looks solid, and Kath doing the same makes me less suspicious of her by about a smidge. Then again, that could be the frustration of any experienced player regardless of role, so I'm trying not to jump to conclusions.
I thought the same initially, but then, I agree that this kind of frustration can be genuine regardless of role. It would also be an easy way for a wolf to score a brownie point. So I don’t think we can read too much into it either way.

And back on the subject of the Nogwagon (that sounds like a food truck btw) - we shouldn't forget Legate, either.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate
Whoa, this got really wide really fast.

I am also not entirely sure about where that Kathwagon came from. I mean, her vote was potentially incriminating (even though I would argue there are others in worse positions). And I am triple not sure what to make of BG's continuing vote for Form. It seems to me like BG is just sliding with the obvious.
Maybe I’m biased because I do think Kath is suspicious, but the bit about her here makes me uneasy. Kath had two votes by this point, so calling it a Kathwagon is stretching it - though would make sense if they were wolves together, either because votes for a fellow would look more threatening so he might think of it as a wagon already, or because he had an interest in presenting votes for Kath as sinister. And then there’s this –

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate
Why does it always come down to last minutes like this... no matter what one does.
This looks a lot like hand-washing. I can’t believe I’m spelling this out, but if you don’t like all the action happening literally in the last 10 minutes, how about – vote sooner? It’s not like some force of nature we’re helpless against, and painting it as such is an easy way to take less responsibility for one’s vote. As in, cross-posting with half the village so you can later claim you had no idea your vote was part of a bandwagon instead of an individual vote with no consequence. This isn’t just Legate, either – I’m a bit worried about the last-minute voting and how easy it is to hide there. With votes more spread out and less cross-posting, people are forced to be more accountable for their votes as they’ll know what’s going on when they’re voting and how their vote impacts the overall situation.
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