We've just watched it tonight. My wife initially enjoyed the show, but has dropped back to just admiring the visuals, having declared the plot and scenes "a bit too Game of Thrones" after episode 3 (specifically Halbrand's bezerker rage). I'm still more forgiving.
In the absence of the Harfeet, I felt the Southlanders were the "most LotR-ish" portion. Theo in particular hits a lot of Hobbit beats - hiding from evil, escaping through the woods, even using sunlight as safety and an end to the battle. Evil Butterbur feels like someone you could encounter on the grottier edges of Tolkien's writing, and even the whole "swear fealty or be destroyed" is an echo of the Mouth of Sauron.
So, Adar. He's not a god, so I don't think he's Sauron - my guess is we haven't seen Sauron yet, and that he will first appear as Annatar (probably not named as such). If he's not just Evil McElfy... I'm going to throw out two longshot options: he is either Maglor or Feanor.
Maglor I'm pretty sure is said to be alive in LOTR, while Feanor - I checked - is never said to be dead. We've been told a lot of lies, didn't he say? And Feanor has been name checked at least once. I would laugh so hard if he was Feanor.
I enjoyed the Moria scenes - Elrond's daddy issues make a lot of sense, actually, and the dwarves were... I mean, they're just fun. Durin and Disa are the actors who most seem like they're enjoying themselves, which is always positive.
I think the state of Numenor is becoming clearer. They rebelled against Tar-Palantir, so Miriel was given the sceptre as regent. The west of Numenor seems to be almost independent - the Faithful are out there, including Anarion, and nobody seems to be doing anything about it. I assume they gave Tar-Palantir one of the palantiri, and kept the others hidden. (Someone asked why Galadriel had handled a palantiri before - I mean, her uncle made the things, right?)
I read Miriel as secretly Faithful, but having to completely hide it to avoid another rebellion. Pharazon is trying to keep her under control, but also secure his own powerbase. I suspect his usurpation will be caused by the death of either Tar-Palantir, or his son Kemen, or both. His marriage to Miriel isn't mentioned in LOTR, but could still happen.
Halbrand is increasingly sketchy, though I'm not entirely clear on whether he told Pharazon where Galadriel was going (would he really let Miriel confront her in private?). I think the whole Southland is in an interesting moral place - the Elves have been wildly racist and oppressive towards them, so why *wouldn't* they turn to Sauron, especially if he shows up separately to the orcs? Especially especially if the elf-led Numenorean invasion leads to the canonical Numenorean slave economy.
hS