The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum - View Single Post - Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood

Nilpaurion Felagund · 06-09-2020, 09:19 AM

(Time reckoned from the start of the DAY, known innocents underlined, known baddies emphasised, person/s in the lead in bold. A plus after the name indicates the Medium.)

+2156: Greenie – Kath (Kath – 1)
+2320: BG – Form (Kath – 1, Form – 1)
+2330: Form – Kath (Kath – 2, Form – 1)
+2337: Mac – Nilp (Kath – 2, Form – 1, Nilp – 1)
+2337: Nilp – Mac (Kath – 2, Form – 1, Nilp – 1, Mac – 1)
+2344: Lommy – Form (Kath – 2, Form – 2, Nilp – 1, Mac – 1)
+2351: Kath – Nilp (Kath – 2, Form – 2, Nilp – 2, Mac – 1)
+2352: Rikae – Nog (Kath – 2, Form – 2, Nilp – 2, Mac – 1, Nog – 1)
+2352: Legate – Nog (Kath – 2, Form – 2, Nilp – 2, Mac – 1, Nog – 2)
+2353: Nog – Form (Kath – 2, Form – 3, Nilp – 2, Mac – 1, Nog – 2)
+2354: Pitch – Nog (Kath – 2, Form – 3, Nilp – 2, Mac – 1, Nog – 3)
+2355: Sally – Kath (Kath – 3, Form – 3, Nilp – 2, Mac – 1, Nog – 3)
+2355: Brinn+ – Nog (Kath – 3, Form – 3, Nilp – 2, Mac – 1, Nog – 5)
+2400: Shasta – Form (Kath – 3, Form – 4, Nilp – 2, Mac – 1, Nog – 5)

Two things stood out:

Kath voted for me with 9 minutes left. She was in the lead, and she remained so after her vote. I don't know if crossposting accounts for this because the second vote for her was twenty minutes before she gave me a second vote. Just found that weird.
The Nogwaggon rolled out with eight minutes and seven votes left. The leading vote-getter to that point had two. Even without the Medium, saving Nog required the other three voters to focus fire, so to speak. Splitting the votes for Form (Nog and Shasta) and one for Kath (Sally) ensured that the four votes were enough.
Why Nogrod? If any (or many) of those in danger (Kath, Form, and me) are Wolves, then it's because he's an Ordo with a reasonable amount of supsicion around him. Of course, in the unlikely case that the three of us were baddies, then the one baddie vote (barring Dead thread intervention, which should be unpredictable) shouldn't have been enough to push Nog over the line. I believe this scenario to be highly unlikely.
What if there were only one Wolf, but two Cobbler-like figures the lycans would like to keep around? Three baddie votes would be enough to push the Nogwaggon into the lead. But why risk introducing a new lynch candidate when there are two pre-existing vote-getters already? This scenario also feels unlikely, but less so than the previous one.
My gut feel is that the Nogwaggon wasn't created by Wolves to save a packmate or a possible Cobbler, even though one or two carnivores might have voted for him.

06-09-2020, 09:19 AM	#365
Nilpaurion Felagund Scion of The Faithful Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: The brink, where hope and despair are akin. [The Philippines] Posts: 5,430	Usual insincere psephologies. (Time reckoned from the start of the DAY, known innocents underlined, known baddies emphasised, person/s in the lead in bold. A plus after the name indicates the Medium.) +2156: Greenie – Kath (Kath – 1) +2320: BG – Form (Kath – 1, Form – 1) +2330: Form – Kath (Kath – 2, Form – 1) +2337: Mac – Nilp (Kath – 2, Form – 1, Nilp – 1) +2337: Nilp – Mac (Kath – 2, Form – 1, Nilp – 1, Mac – 1) +2344: Lommy – Form (Kath – 2, Form – 2, Nilp – 1, Mac – 1) +2351: Kath – Nilp (Kath – 2, Form – 2, Nilp – 2, Mac – 1) +2352: Rikae – Nog (Kath – 2, Form – 2, Nilp – 2, Mac – 1, Nog – 1) +2352: Legate – Nog (Kath – 2, Form – 2, Nilp – 2, Mac – 1, Nog – 2) +2353: Nog – Form (Kath – 2, Form – 3, Nilp – 2, Mac – 1, Nog – 2) +2354: Pitch – Nog (Kath – 2, Form – 3, Nilp – 2, Mac – 1, Nog – 3) +2355: Sally – Kath (Kath – 3, Form – 3, Nilp – 2, Mac – 1, Nog – 3) +2355: Brinn+ – Nog (Kath – 3, Form – 3, Nilp – 2, Mac – 1, Nog – 5) +2400: Shasta – Form (Kath – 3, Form – 4, Nilp – 2, Mac – 1, Nog – 5) Two things stood out: Kath voted for me with 9 minutes left. She was in the lead, and she remained so after her vote. I don't know if crossposting accounts for this because the second vote for her was twenty minutes before she gave me a second vote. Just found that weird. The Nogwaggon rolled out with eight minutes and seven votes left. The leading vote-getter to that point had two. Even without the Medium, saving Nog required the other three voters to focus fire, so to speak. Splitting the votes for Form (Nog and Shasta) and one for Kath (Sally) ensured that the four votes were enough. Why Nogrod? If any (or many) of those in danger (Kath, Form, and me) are Wolves, then it's because he's an Ordo with a reasonable amount of supsicion around him. Of course, in the unlikely case that the three of us were baddies, then the one baddie vote (barring Dead thread intervention, which should be unpredictable) shouldn't have been enough to push Nog over the line. I believe this scenario to be highly unlikely. What if there were only one Wolf, but two Cobbler-like figures the lycans would like to keep around? Three baddie votes would be enough to push the Nogwaggon into the lead. But why risk introducing a new lynch candidate when there are two pre-existing vote-getters already? This scenario also feels unlikely, but less so than the previous one. My gut feel is that the Nogwaggon wasn't created by Wolves to save a packmate or a possible Cobbler, even though one or two carnivores might have voted for him. __________________ フェンリス鴨 (Fenrisu Kamo) The plot, cut, defeated. I intend to copy this sig forever - so far so good...