[Boromir88]

2011 Arda Cup in Review
BoroLXXXVIII, Two Towers Network

Well, we are aware it's been a while since Doriath steamrolled their way through the Championship (+20 goal differential...Inconceivable!), but decided to have a look back at some of the highlights (and lowlights) in 2011. We were planning on doing final power rankings, but seeing as there is not much disagreement with ArdaCup.com's ranks, there was no point to be redundant.

So, what we have done as we take "a look back" is note some of this year's disappointments, and teams we believe are on the rise to better fortunes, as well as those falling from the pinnacle.

The polarity of the Goal-keeping. This was something peculiar about 2011. Never before have we seen GKs rise to the level of Elrond or Huan (plus a handful of others in the mid to low-80% saves). However, never before have we seen such an atrocious display of "the rest." 8 of 32 teams had goalies with a save% of 60% or below. And over half the teams (17) had GKs with a save% of below 70%. It was feast of famine this year for most teams and one of the most important positions, goal keeper.

The poor quality of the Gondor teams. It was a bad year for any loyal Gondorian. Minas Tirith and Gondor only finished with 1 pt. each and both were last in their groups. Plus, it's not like they played in any of the insurmountable groups of death. Both Gondor teams attempted to ally with their Rohirric friends, but that experiment failed.

Despite having a strong bond of friendship, Gondor and Rohan's playing styles are too different to mesh together. Gondor's legendary Steward defenders know how to defend in times of trouble. And Gondor will look to wear you down with mistake free football. Rohan on the other hand likes to run up and down the pitch, and count on their tireless horses in defense to do just enough to get in the way. The attempt to fuse the two styles together backfired. I would not be surprised to see at least Eorl and Eomer return to Rohan (possibly Eowyn), and Gondor should make a heavy push to bring back the talents of Aragorn and Boromir II.

*We will also make brief mention here of our disappointment with the way Valinor handled hosting their games. You would think the Valar would have their act and organization together better than most, as Aman could be a beautiful venue to host games. Instead the planning committees every year have a laundry list of allegations of corruption and foul play. Either the Blessed Realm gets it's act together or we would like to see strict punishments levied against Manwe and the Valar. But who would have the authority to enforce such punishment?

Stocks Rising and Falling

For this part, we will look ahead and try to project teams who are going to be on the rise, or decline, in 2012. A few clarifications first.

To qualify as being a team on the rise/decline, we're not looking for simply improved performance, but a marked and visible improvement. For instance, we find it hard to believe Esgaroth could get any worse than they showed this year (I guess if their only change was to sell Girion and bring in Oin?) Esgaroth has to be better than 2011, they really can't get worse. However, they would need a complete overhaul in personel to show any sign of significant improvement.

So, when putting this together section together, I am looking at teams who will make the jump from eliminated in group play to the playoffs (and possibly further in the playoffs) or teams who made it to the playoffs this year, but will drop out in 2012 due to their stocks falling.

Let's begin on the brighter side with a few teams we anticipate to be on the rise:

5. Hithlum: This will depend on if Celegorm and Curufin decide to stay. If they do, I can't see how these skilled sons of Feanor will miss out on the playoffs for 2 straight tournaments. The reason Hithlum didn't advance was a tough draw, with Angband and Anfauglith, and their defenses were awful. We don't expect Celegorm and Curufin will stick around if Hador wants to move them back on defense. However, Hador has shown a willingness to do whatever it takes to field a solid team. Hador's been a solid defender for Hithlum in the past, don't be surprised if he comes back to shore up the defense and maybe replace Imlach with a much better keeper. Thus keeping Celegorm and Curufin happy as the FWs.

4. Eriador: After a surprising quarter finals appearance in 2010, 2011 was a big disappointment for Arvedui's team. However, we expect the core players (Arvedui, obviously, and Araphor) to stick around. The gamble with the troll defenders failed, but we are curious to what Arvedui hinted at after Eriador's elimination in group play. He's wanted to put something to work the past few years, but didn't have the budget to pull it off. Do they for 2012? And what could that be? Needless to say TTN is intrigued, because I feel, after Minas Morgul's lackluster showing, we might be seeing The Witch-King (and maybe some of his fellow Nazgul's) back on top the great Watch Tower? Hmmm...

3. Himring: Kind of similar to Hithlum's situation, we just can't see Maedhras and Fingon being kept out of the playoffs for 2 straight years. They are too good of talents to be kept out back-to-back cups. Also, the two friends are committed to staying together to create a true contender. With more time, expect Maedhros and Fingon to be hard at work bringing in better defensive stars than the alliance of the Faithful and Treacherous men they had this year.

2. Numenor: This team more or less formed without even trying to form. These cast-off Numenoreans were waiting for Elros or Ar-Pharazon, but they hadn't known that Elros had secretly formed the super-power Westernessed team. The Numenorean nation may realize they are strongest when they're all together. Despite this accidental formation of team Numenor this year, they to no surprise put together a stingy defense. Clearly they will need strikers. And maybe with Westernesse falling short of their goal this year, we see Ar-Pharazon and/or Elros return to Numenor. This will provide a proven leader, and striker, to a Numenor team that desperately lacked them this year.

1. Nargothrond: Nargothrond's been on the decline for several years, but TTN believes they truly hit rock bottom this year. Normally they were the toughest of opponents, grinding out hard fought 1-goal victories. The past couple years, they've lost the 1-goal games and were simply overrun this year by some pretty mediocre teams. Don't worry Master Felagund, your Nargothrondians will be back and stronger than ever. Especially with Finduilas having the humility to know she made a mistake taking over the team, expect the ancient leaders, Finrod and Orodreth, to return, restoring the roar back to Nargothrond.

Now the teams with falling stocks:

5. Gondolin: We're starting off with Gondolin and it may be a surprise, because Gondolin finished 25th this year. How can they get worse, right? Well, they might finish higher in the overall standings in 2012, but honestly I can't see this team (as is) competing to make the playoffs. The truth of the matter is, Gondolin was in a ridiculously difficult group, and true Turgon had aligned a much depleted team from Gondolin's 2010 Arda Cup winning team. Problem is, Gondolin appears to be panicking and laying all the blame on Turgon. Turgon could be forced out of Gondolin and that, in my opinion, is a big mistake. You had a down year, Gondolin fans, that's not a reason to panic and burn the bridge with your leader, Turgon.

4. Pelori: I think Pelori's maxed out, they've gone as far as they can go with Manwe's style, and that was only good enough for 4th place. With the recent dissensions of Tulkas (going off to form Valinor) and Aule (Tirion) plus the less publicized split with Ulmo, I don't see Pelori being able to hold together. Since Manwe likes visions, I'll give him a TTN envision. The Valar continue to break apart in attempts of indirectly rebelling against Manwe.

3. Misty Mountains: Sort of like Pelori, I just think the Misty Mountains has gone as far as they're going to go. Caradhras was a pleasant addition and will likely stick around. It solved Misty Mountains goal-keeping problems, when they had The Watcher, between the posts. But what will happen with Saruman and Durin's Bane? Do they plan to stick around and maybe add another goal-scorer to help the Misty Mountains progress further? I don't think so.

2. Lothlorien: Lothlorien will probably make one of the bigger drops, because I have no doubts Feanor will be gone. Feanor never sticks around in one place for more than a year. Wherever Feanor goes, the team he goes on improves. The team he leaves from declines. The more wealthy Noldor teams, like Tirion, can in some ways make up for the void left by Feanor. However, you'll note Tirion declined in 2011. So, what's going to happen to Lothlorien who never made the playoffs before Feanor arrived? Add on top of that Galadriel will never surrender power over her Guarded Realm. They should be a stout defensive team again, but their offense is going to go in the gutters.

1. Doriath: Same reasons as Lothlorien, they're going to lose too much when they lose Turin. Turin never stays in one place for more than a year either, and his asking price is rumored to be extremely high. Thingol emptied the bank to put all of his eggs into this years basket. It worked, but TTN expects the championship players to be wanting too much money to stay together again. Turin will go, and surely that means Hurin will follow, along with Beleg. That's a lot of talent to lose and have to replace. We can know this will happen with 90% certainty.

Thingol and Melian will also likely stay together, those two are inseperable. But how far has Doriath gone with those two alone? So the trickier question becomes what will happen to Eol, Beren, Luthien, Mablung, Carcharoth and Huan? If that core can be afforded than Doriath will still be able to field quite a strong and dangerous team. Although, we must say that we can't see all of those players coming back. Perhaps Thingol can keep Beren, Luthien and Mablung. But doubtful with regards to Eol, Carcharoth and Huan.