You've made a powerful case for Gandalf, Fordie, though balanced against your analysis is very strong evidence of Gandalf's self-knowledge/self-control in this matter: his knowledge of the Ring's whereabouts -- easily within his reach -- for decades; his chance to claim it not once but twice -- first when it is left more or less in his stewardship, albeit briefly, when Bilbo departs, and second when Frodo openly offers it to him.
Of course we are to imagine some desperate extremity in Mordor, no doubt -- Nazgűl on the hunt, the Ring's power waxing, etc. In fact, probably the most dangerous moment of all is Shelob's lair, when Frodo appears dead. Now there's a breaking point if ever there was one. Suppose the Fellowship were still intact
then, with the Bearer down. Who takes the Ring?
I agree with your point that the more powerful and ambitious are more easily tempted, but I think you're underestimating a few factors that still weigh in Gandalf's favor. His knowledge, having passed through sacrifice, death, and regeneration, that selfish will to power is the antithesis of victory in Middle-earth. His long experience with resisting the Ring's lure. His knowledge, both as a Ring-bearer and a Maia, of the consequences of claiming the Ring. And -- and I think this is perhaps most important of all -- his resources of power, via both his native power as a "wizard" and his possession of a Ring of his own, which give him hope of successfully contending with the Enemy and/or his agents without the extra power of the One Ring.
On the other hand, I'm not sure I buy your thesis re: Aragorn. Who was it who actually sought a direct confrontation with Sauron? Why, Aragorn, of course. And was this a hasty or improvised course of action? Nay:
Quote:
'Dangerous indeed, but not to all,' said Aragorn. 'There is one who may claim it by right. For this assuredly is the palantír of Orthanc from the treasury of Elendil, set here by the Kings of Gondor. Now my hour draws near. I will take it.'
Gandalf looked at Aragorn, and then, to the surprise of the others, he lifted the covered Stone, and bowed as he presented it.
'Receive it, lord!' he said: 'in earnest of other things that shall be given back. But if I may counsel you in the use of your own, do not use it – yet! Be wary!'
'When have I been hasty or unwary, who have waited and prepared for so many long years?' said Aragorn.
'Never yet. Do not then stumble at the end of the road,' answered Gandalf.
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Is it possible that Aragorn's sense of entitlement, of mission to oppose Sauron mano y mano, would be his undoing in the end, at the last extremity?
Maybe. Maybe.
I'm not voting yet because the jury's still out as far as I'm concerned. But I'm leaning away from Gandalf...