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More accurately, Note 17 to "Durin's Folk" comments on the anomalous dates given in the family tree in Appendix A.
One bit of evidence which might indicate a slip is that this is the only Fourth Age date in the table which is not expressed in Fourth Age terms. One might speculate that the date was originally 3012- an age of 240- but Tolkien then realized this contradicts Gloin's statement that all the survivors of the Battle of Five Armies, save Balin's expedition, were still alive in 3018, and he corrected it clumsily.
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The entire plot of The Lord of the Rings could be said to turn on what Sauron didn’t know, and when he didn’t know it.
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