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Originally Posted by Lottie
If they didn't have a solid Elendil prospect, they'd likely go after a semi-known Dreamer more than a suspected potential one. I'd think he'd be more likely to make perceptible hints but lay low.
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Yeah, and honestly that's a factor that I haven't quite figured out yet. In most of my KM thinking that I've tried I'm perpetually thinking Elendil is the
only target, as his dreams simply must be silenced. But as an individual that has attracted far more than my share of very early (Night 1 or 2) dreams over the years, I think perhaps I'm hyper-threatened by a Seer role as a Baddie, and I can recall in the past Wolfpacks throwing me off my game a bit by
not going with a Seer-first mentality.
So basically I always pay some sort of lip service to the possibility that maybe the Baddies are trying some other kill strategy, but I spend very little time actually following through on such alternatives to see how they would function. But let's try it....
So- let's assume for a moment that the Baddies believed
Boro was not Elendil, but rather a dreamer. What then is their endgame? They must realize that by killing the dreamer they would not be killing Elendil (if their calculation was correct that is), thus what are they hoping for other than negating a dream? Elendil can still have another. And of course
Shasta is still there waiting for them.
Okay- assume for a moment that the Baddies were correct and
Boro was the dreamer and
Brin is innocent. Then tonight she'll receive Ranger protection and she will dream, so they kill
Shasta. Then tomorrow
Brin reveals her dream, meaning we'll have 2 known innocents or 1 known inn and 1 known baddie.
With option number 1 the Ranger transfers protection to the dream target and the cycle repeats. Option 2 the baddies would take out
Brin and Elendil would have to select a brand new recipient at random, which would possibly be a KM... And assuming a continuation of option 1 the dream would increasingly be more likely to be of the Ranger if he hadn't been dreamed of already, thus proceeding down the dream-chain killing would in fact kill him eventually thus freeing the KMs of his meddling.
Okay... I can maybe kinda see that strategy as an attempt to win, but wow would that have potential for danger. What if
Boro and
Brin are both Ordos? Then quite quickly Gifteds outnumber KMs and likely they could reveal with some amount of success, and the number of known innocents would simply be overwhelming.
I realize the odds of hitting Elendil would be lower assuming he did nothing to mark himself, but it still seems the logical choice, especially if you have some amount of confidence in your abilities to feel people out. If you hit him Night 2- bang. The game really turns.