[the phantom]

MESPN Take on Off-season Losses and Acquisitions
Philip McPhantom, MESPN News

Everyone's heard that they shouldn't second-guess themselves, or that their first instinct is often correct. Well, after seeing the official rosters, this is the first reaction our panel had to each squad and whether or not they improved from last season. (Note: Below each squad next to the dollar signs is how this year's payroll compares to last year.)

Anduin (83)
GK Amroth (4)
DF Minalcar (5)
DF Felarof (5)
DF Celeborn (10)
DF *Fram (10)
MF Lenwe (2)
MF Leod (5)
MF Haldir (8)
MF Boromir II (10)
FW Eorl (14)
FW Grimbeorn (10)

$$: +3
Verdict: They managed to hold onto their more important pieces from last year (Grimbeorn, Fram, Celeborn, Haldir, Boromir), and added Eorl to the front and Felarof to the back, so they’ve definitely taken a step forward on both ends of the pitch.

Angband (91)
GK *Carcharoth (9)
DF Ulwarth (4)
DF Umuiyan (5)
DF Balrog #1 (12)
DF *Morgoth (20)
MF Uldor (4)
MF Ulfast (4)
MF Ulfang (5)
MF Oikeroi (5)
FW Telvildo (9)
FW *Ancalagon (14)

$$$: -10
Verdict: After last year’s disappointment Morgoth skimmed a hair from salaries, but he didn’t lose talent. In fact Angband may be better now after plugging in Umuiyan and Oikeroi at the front and back, as they are a notch quicker and more dexterous than their predecessors.

Angfauglith (87)
GK *Ungoliant (16)
DF Borlach (3)
DF Gelmir (3)
DF Balrog #2 (12)
DF *Balrog #3 (12)
MF Gorgol (3)
MF Haldir (4)
MF Rian (3)
MF Bor (3)
FW Ecthelion (10)
FW *Gothmog (18)

$$$: -6
Verdict: They lost a Balrog at the back and their big-scorer at the front (Thuringwethil), but they replaced her with one of the greatest in the game- Gothmog, and added Ecthelion to compliment him. That means they probably broke even, only with slightly less defensive emphasis and more on offense.

Armenelos (95)
GK Tar Atanamir (10)
DF Tar Calmacil (7)
DF Tar Palantir (7)
DF Tar Telperien (7)
MF Ar Gimilzor (7)
MF Tar Telemmaite (7)
MF Tar Miriel (7)
MF Tar Ancalimon (7)
MF *Elros (12)
FW Ar Adunakhor (12)
FW Ar Pharazon (12)

$$$: -13
Verdict: Last year’s group-of-death resulted in underachievement, so salaries were cut a bit. The only roster difference is the addition of Elros, and he’s obviously high quality, so they’ll be as good as or slightly better than last year, and doubtless in a kinder grouping.

Arnor (68)
GK Arvedui (8)
DF Earendur (3)
DF Valandur (3)
DF Malbeth (8)
DF *Elendil (10)
MF Malvegil (3)
MF Argeleb (4)
MF Arassuil (4)
MF Arantar (5)
FW Araphor (7)
FW *Witch King (13)

$$$: -3
Verdict: They lost Isildur to the highly successful Eriador squad, but they’ve added the Witch King and Malbeth from Eriador (thanks to partnerships with Elrond and Norbury Sport). Thus it seems they’ve managed to step up a bit with talent without having to pay out, which is the ultimate ideal.

Barad-Dur (74)
GK Grishnakh (5)
DF Fellbeast #1 (3)
DF Fellbeast #2 (3)
DF Pallando (11)
DF Alatar (11)
MF Sangahyando (3)
MF Herumor (3)
MF Angamaite (3)
MF Beruthiel (5)
FW Castamir (7)
FW *Sauron (20)

$$$: +8
Verdict: After being one of the few not to overpay last year Sauron was poised to spend more this season rather than less, and he did so by acquiring the Blue Wizards and a second airborne defender, which is an improvement over last year’s defense. Given the offense is identical, the team overall ought to be better.

AC Beleriand (108)
GK Marach (9)
DF Imlach (4)
DF Rochallor (4)
DF Balrog #4 (12)
DF *Fingolfin (15)
MF Denethor (3)
MF Ulrad (5)
MF Angrod (10)
MF Aegnor (10)
FW Eol (15)
FW **Feanor (21)

$$$: +12
Verdict: The success of most AC Beleriand investors allowed them to spend heavier this year. They’ve replaced Ecthelion with a Balrog, so lost and gained quality there. In the midfield they’ve replaced Bregolas & Beren with Angrod & Aegnor. Individually they may not quite match Beren, but in tandem they’re potentially a step up.

Inter Beleriand (81)
GK Turgon (11)
DF Haldad (2)
DF Gorlim (2)
DF Baragund (3)
DF Luthien (13)
MF Forweg (2)
MF Hunthor (2)
MF Haleth (7)
MF *Beren (13)
FW Fingon (13)
FW *Maedhros (13)

$$$: +11
Verdict: At the back they replaced a Balrog and Brandir with Luthien and a shifted Baragund, so possibly a wash there. At the front they’ve added Beren to the Maedhros/Fingon attack, so a step forward there. Overall then, they’ve improved the squad.

Doriath (70)
GK Dior (7)
DF Galathil (2)
DF Nimloth (2)
DF Elwing (6)
DF *Melian (14)
MF Galadhon (2)
MF Nellas (3)
MF Saeros (3)
MF Daeron (7)
MF *Elwe (14)
FW Mablung (10)

$$$: -14
Verdict: Luthien and Beleg are no longer at the front, but Elwing has been added to the defense and Elwe to the offense. This does not look to be an improvement in overall talent, but shifting Daeron and Saeros forward to assist Elwe and Mablung may help maintain scoring somewhat, while the back end is at least on par with last year.

Dwarves United (86)
GK Galadriel (14)
DF Azaghal (5)
DF Durin (6)
DF Aule (16)
DF *Celebrimbor (18)
MF Fili (2)
MF Kili (2)
MF Gamil Zirak (4)
MF Telchar (4)
MF Gimli (5)
FW Legolas (10)

$$$: -3
Verdict: Fili and Kili have stepped in to replace Thorin and Thror, but it remains to be seen whether their youthful quickness can replace the hardiness and experience. The crafty Telchar and Gamil Zirak have been shifted forward, which may help, while Galadriel has a replaced Bombur between the posts- a definite improvement.

Erebor (94)
GK *Beorn (12)
DF Thorin (5)
DF Meneldor (8)
DF Landroval (8)
DF Girion (8)
MF Dain (5)
MF Brand (3)
MF Bolg (9)
FW Bard (8)
FW Nazgul #7 (10)
FW *Smaug (18)

$$$: -9
Verdict: They lost Gwaihir, but they still have two eagles at the back. In front Thranduil is gone, but everyone else is back (Smaug, Bard, etc.). The new faces, Brand and Thorin, aren’t quite an athletic match for Thranduil and Gwaihir, so it appears their lower salary results in a lower ceiling.

Eriador (103)
GK *Elrond (20)
DF Asfaloth (4)
DF Arwen (10)
DF Aragorn (10)
DF *Gil-galad (13)
MF Araphant (5)
MF Arador (4)
MF NogWight (6)
MF Arveleg (8)
MF *Glorfindel (13)
FW Isildur (10)

$$$: +4
Verdict: After a very successful season Eriador has bumped up the payroll. Malbeth is gone to Arnor, but joining the defense is Aragorn and Arwen. The Witch King is gone from the forward position, but Isildur has replaced him and NogWight has signed on to help the attack, so scoring shouldn’t suffer. Overall Eriador looks to have stepped forward.

Gondolin (84)
GK Rog (8)
DF Penlod (7)
DF Aranwe (3)
DF Galdor (5)
DF Egalmoth (7)
MF Salgant (4)
MF Elemmakil (4)
MF Duilin (8)
MF Idril (10)
FW Tuor (10)
FW *Maeglin (18)

$$$: +1
Verdict: Pengolodh has been replaced by Penlod at the rear. Gothmog is gone from the attack and Meleth from the midfield, but Tuor and Idril have both joined the offense so the scoring shouldn’t suffer. Overall it looks like Gondolin took a little step forward.

Gondor (70)
GK Imrahil (5)
DF Galadil (4)
DF Earnil I (6)
DF Eldarion (5)
MF Calimehtar (5)
MF Ciryandil (5)
MF Turambar (6)
MF Meneldil (6)
MF Romendacil (7)
MF *Anarion (12)
FW Eldacar (9)

$$$: -14
Verdict: After a respectable season everyone’s taken a tiny cut to help the team manage its budget. They lost some quality in Hyarmendacil and Falastur, but their replacements, Meneldil and Galadil, aren’t a significant step back. So perhaps a lower ceiling for Gondor, but a smarter budget.

Hithlum (101)
GK Huor (8)
DF Galdor (5)
DF Arroch (2)
DF Gundor (5)
DF Balrog #5 (13)
MF Aradan (3)
MF Morwen (6)
MF Hador (12)
MF *Beleg (13)
FW Hurin (14)
FW **Turin (20)

$$$: +15
Verdict: New investors Feanor & company have bailed out Hador House after last year’s losses, and they’ve really gone for it. Galdor, Gundor, and a Balrog improve the defense, while Turin’s buddy Beleg will improve the offense. A significant salary-bump, but an equally nice talent-bump here.

Imladris (69)
GK Valandil (6)
DF Celebrian (5)
DF Galdor (4)
DF Erestor (9)
DF *Varda (14)
MF Gilraen (2)
MF Figwit (2)
MF Lindir (2)
MF Arahael (5)
FW Elladan (10)
FW Elrohir (10)

$$$: -19
Verdict: After gaining more sway Elrond has made this squad much more economical. Big pieces Elros and Arwen are gone, and replacing them are Valandil, Celebrian, and Arahael. This is a lowering of talent for the squad, but possibly less than the value of the salary they saved.

Isengard (66)
GK Ugluk (5)
DF Mauhur (3)
DF Beechbone (3)
DF Treebeard (10)
MF Lurtz (3)
MF Wulf (2)
MF Lugdush (3)
MF Nazgul #5 (8)
MF Wormtongue (4)
MF *Saruman (15)
FW Quickbeam (10)

$$$: -8
Verdict: Caradhras’s blinding snow and wind has been replaced by the ent Beechbone at the rear, while in the midfield Freca is gone in favor of a Nazgul. It looks like they’ve managed to improve in skill while decreasing payroll.

Minas Tirith (76)
GK Denethor II (7)
DF Earnur (7)
DF Ecthelion II (7)
DF Firefoot (3)
DF Cirion (7)
MF Earnil II (7)
MF Tarandor (7)
MF Telumehtar (7)
MF Mardil (7)
MF *Eomer (10)
FW Boromir I (7)

$$$: -12
Verdict: Everyone took a slight paycut here. Faramir and Ostoher are gone, replaced by Eomer and Firefoot, which is possibly a little bit of an advancement, which is particularly good in light of the lower salary.

Misty Mts (76)
GK Chief Wolf (3)
DF Caradhras (7)
DF William (4)
DF Watcher (5)
DF *Gwaihir (11)
MF Great Goblin (5)
MF Orophin (6)
MF Rumil (6)
MF Narvi (6)
MF Azog (8)
FW *Durin’s Bane (15)

$$$: +9
Verdict: They booted Bert and Tom in favor of Caradhras and Gwaihir, which combined with shifting a couple players to more sensible positions ought to have them improved at least as much as they upped salary.

Mordor (51)
GK Silent Watcher (1)
DF Fellbeast #3 (3)
DF Mumakil (1)
DF Fellbeast #4 (3)
DF Gothmog II (5)
MF Gorbag (3)
MF Shagrat (3)
MF Nazgul #1 (7)
MF Nazgul #2 (7)
MF *Mouth (8)
FW Shelob (10)

$$$: -7
Verdict: Sauron kept Mordor even lower-cost this year, but perhaps they haven’t lost ground competitively. Three Nazgul are gone, but Gothmog II, the Mouth, and a Fellbeast defender are three capable replacements.

Nargothrond (89)
GK Orodreth (10)
DF Guillen (4)
DF Baran (3)
DF Arminas (4)
DF Barahir (7)
MF Beor (7)
MF Nienor (6)
MF Finduilas (9)
FW Gwindor (10)
FW Finrod (14)
FW *Glaurung (15)

$$$: -6
Verdict: Nargothrond had a disappointing year, but did not overhaul their roster. Instead they replaced Mim with Nienor and shifted a few midfielders and defenders around, including moving Orodreth to goal. Perhaps those players will perform better in different positions, but Nienor is an improvement over Mim anyway.

Rohan (66)
GK Theoden (7)
DF Windfola (3)
DF Snowmane (3)
DF Hama (3)
DF Erkenbrand (3)
MF Aldor (6)
MF King Dead (10)
MF Eowyn (9)
MF Brytta (5)
MF *Faramir (9)
FW Helm (8)

$$$: -28
Verdict: After a nice quarterfinal run, Rohan is shockingly low-budget this year, but not by design. Gandalf is notorious for wandering and he left with Shadowfax, while Eorl and his steed were wooed by team Anduin. At the back end they’ve brought in Windfola to fill the horse gap, while on the other end they’ve added Faramir and Eowyn- good replacements, but it doesn’t quite make up for what they lost.

Shire-Bree United (68)
GK Halbarad (5)
DF Fellbeast (2)
DF Nazgul #4 (8)
DF Gildor (7)
DF *Shadowfax (5)
MF Butterbur (2)
MF Bandobras (4)
MF Ferny (2)
MF Nazgul #6 (8)
MF *Gandalf (14)
FW Khamul (11)

$$$: -4
Verdict: Aragorn, Bombadil, and Barrow-Wight are gone from the productive offense, but Gandalf and a Nazgul have been brought in to compliment Khamul, so the drop-off should be blunted. At the back they’ve brought in a Fellbeast and of course Shadowfax, so it seems they’ve lost on offense and gained on defense.

The Havens (79)
GK Amandil (6)
DF Annael (5)
DF Imrazor (5)
DF Ar Zimrathan (8)
DF Olwe (10)
MF Eriol (5)
MF Mithrellas (3)
MF Earwen (3)
MF Falastur (9)
MF Cirdan (10)
FW *Earendil (15)

$$$: -5
Verdict: Angrod, Aegnor, and Tuor are gone, but Cirdan has gone forward to fill the gap along with bringing in Falastur. At the back Lindo and Elwing are gone, but Ar-Zimrathan and Imrazor are quality replacements, and Amandil has filled the goal vacated by Cirdan. In the middle Earwen and Andreth are gone, replace by Mithrellas and Eriol. The Havens probably took a little step back, as their defensive improvement probably does not equal their scoring lost.

The Sea (100)
GK Hyarmendacil (8)
DF Osse (9)
DF Salmar (9)
DF Uinen (9)
DF *Ulmo (17)
MF Tar Cirytan (7)
MF Voronwe (7)
MF Tar Meneldur (7)
MF Veantur (7)
MF Tar Aldarion (8)
FW Tar Minastir (12)

$$$: -8
Verdict: Still an expensive squad, with nearly everyone back from last year. Voronwe has taken the departed Eriol’s position in the midfield, while Hyarmendacil was signed to fill the gap between the posts. Hyarmendacil has more talent than Eriol, thus the squad as a whole is slightly better.

Tirion (83)
GK Finarfin (8)
DF Irime (3)
DF Amrod (9)
DF Amras (9)
DF *Caranthir (11)
MF Anaire (3)
MF Eldalote (2)
MF Rumil (4)
MF Mahtan (9)
FW Aredhel (12)
FW Finwe (13)

$$$: 0
Verdict: They broke dead even in salary despite changes. Elenwe and Thorondor are gone from the defense in favor of Caranthir, Amrod, and Amras. Eonwe and Ingwe are gone from the front end, replaced by Rumil and Eldalote, and with Mahtan moving forward. Their salary seems to have it right- they’re built different, but overall they’re probably even.

Valimar (102)
GK *Manwe (14)
DF Amarie (4)
DF Este (8)
DF Vana (8)
DF *Namo (14)
MF Elenwe (3)
MF Ilmare (8)
MF Vaire (8)
MF Irmo (9)
MF Ingwe (11)
FW *Arien (15)

$$$: -15
Verdict: The inflated payroll is under control now, and they have perhaps improved despite the cuts. Amrod and Amras have been replaced with Este and Amarie at the rear, while Ilmare and the Blue Wizard attack is now Irmo, Ingwe, and Arien. Their level is comparable to last year- probably higher due to improved scoring spark.

FC Valinor (107)
GK *Huan (15)
DF Thorondor (13)
DF Indis (7)
DF Maglor (10)
DF *Eonwe (12)
MF Elemmire (4)
MF Findis (4)
MF Argon (7)
MF *Yavanna (10)
FW Celegorm (11)
FW *Curufin (14)

$$$: -6
Verdict: Their front four is back intact, but there are small changes elsewhere. Idril and Irmo are out of the midfield, replaced by Elemmire and Findis. At the back end Penlod and Nahar are out, replaced by Thorondor and Eonwe. So, it is a weaker middle balanced with a stronger back, thus they probably broke even.

Real Valinor (101)
GK *Tulkas (12)
DF Nienna (10)
DF Nahar (5)
DF Ingwion (5)
DF *Tilion (12)
MF Quennar (3)
MF Enerdhil (4)
MF Nessa (10)
FW Nerdanel (12)
FW *Miriel (14)
FW Orome (14)

$$$: +3
Verdict: The defending champs had to spend a bit more this time, and didn’t retain all their pieces, but they found good replacements. Orome has replaced Arien up front, Quennar has replaced Elemmire in the midfield, and Nahar and Ingwion have replaced Rumil and Caranthir at the rear. Most likely they’ve broken even- stepping back every so slightly up front while improving a bit at the rear.

Wilderland (75)
GK Great Warg (5)
DF Finglas (3)
DF Skinbark (3)
DF Oropher (5)
DF Radagast (11)
MF Fimbrethil (3)
MF Iminye (4)
MF Imin (5)
MF Nazgul #3 (8)
FW Thranduil (14)
FW *Scatha (14)

$$$: -10
Verdict: The ent Beechbone is out in favor of the wizard Radagast, but the major changes are up front, where Orome, Galadriel, and Elwe have all ditched. Imin and Iminye will attempt to bridge the gap in the midfield, while Thranduil and a Nazgul will help Scatha with the attack. They’ve lost scoring power, but they’re better behind them, thus the step back perhaps is perhaps not as large as the payroll drop.

The Barrow-Downs (50)
GK Alien (2)
DF Lumpkin (2)
DF GwathWight (3)
DF River Woman (3)
DF Barrow-Wight (11)
MF WilWight (3)
MF Lalwende MP (3)
MF Goldberry (3)
MF Hookbill (6)
FW Saucepan Man (6)
FW *Bombadil (8)

$$$: +13
Verdict: Thanks to a new league minimum and the “Tolkien mandate”, this squad formerly known as “The Downer” will be much improved. Goldberry, River Woman, WilWight and GwathWight are more dependable than some of the old crowd, while adding Bombadil to the front definitely improves scoring potential.

Tol In Gaurhoth (84)
GK *ShastaWolf (10)
DF Draugluin (8)
DF GaladriWight (3)
DF BoroWolf (8)
DF *NilpWolf (10)
MF LegateWight (3)
MF SallyWight (4)
MF NerWight (5)
MF *PhantomWolf (10)
FW Thuringwethil (13)
FW *InzilWolf (10)

$$$: +16
Verdict: Their payroll has gone up more than any squad, and predictably there’s a rise in talent. InzilWight is rumored to be a quality replacement Werewolf up front, and bringing Thuringwethil in on the attack and Draugluin on the defense certainly raises the bar on expectations.