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Originally Posted by Nogrod
Gah... I think we've had this discussion a few times before at the forum (right Nilp?  ). But yes I will... later on the Day. In case someone actually starts talking, that is. |
Oh yes, we've had this discussion before...
Nilp and I are not quite parallel in our Day 1 attitudes, but we're on communicable wavelengths.
The difficulty with analysing Day 1 is that there's a continuum problem about WHEN it's worthy to start analysing. Do you start with the first vote? Chances are the vote is completely random, given the limited number of wolves (who have clear knowledge of whom they should be trying to kill) and the complete lack of votes before that to compare it to. Should it be after the first analytic post? Seems silly--the post will just be analysing silliness.
Basically, my point is that, in general Day 1s are really not going to reveal anything significant until AFTER Day 1 has ended. While still in the process, Day 1 is inevitably going to have so many unknowable variables that it is essentially worthless to make a serious effort to analyse it during its course. It's only, perhaps, in the last hour or so, when the votes coming flying onto bandwaggons that there's much to grasp for analysis.
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Originally Posted by Nogrod
If we all just continue on Disney we could as well throw a coin to decide our votes - and continue toMorrow with no lead whatsoever. The baddies would just love it!
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Of course they would--but Day 2 is significantly different from Day 1. On Day 2 we have a Nighttime kill--or NO Nighttime kill, if the Ranger-figure of the game has done his/her job. This, and the total accumulation of Day 1 actions is where I put the bar for having sufficient action to analyse.
We can, of course, stop the Disney talk and go on to something else... I'm just not convinced that this "something else" has any merit at this time.
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Originally Posted by Nogrod
It is not once or twice that a wolf has been lynched on Day1 in 'Downs werewolf - with sound reasoning - so why think it would be impossible here in a **** situation (sorry, I just follow my ban for a certain word here I imposed to myself - so no bad language involved).
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With sound reasoning? Then the Wolves were slipping up majorly, or else everyone knew each other too... and I'm not seeing evidence of either yet.