[the phantom]

MESPN News: Playoff Preview Special

Philip McPhantom: Hello football fans. We're to the quarterfinals now, and I've got the experts back with me again to take a look at things- Ruharg the dragon, sports editor of Monser Magazine, and Ar-Tar-Aradhil from Westernesse Weekly and president of the Numenorean Association for the Advancement of Football (NAAF).

Ar-Tar-Aradhil: You're kind to call me an expert after last round.

Ruharg: Ha ha! Yes, you've had better weeks.

Philip McP: Well let's just take a quick look back, shall we?

Ar-Tar-A: Must we?

Ruharg: Heh heh...

P McP: Let's get those A vs H upsets out of the way first.

ATA: We both missed one there.

Ruharg: Yes- I was a believer in Group A and you in Group H, and they proved us both right, and wrong.

P: Which upset was more impressive?

ATA: Well, I thought Minas Tirith could get it done playing their game, but they straight-up out-shot Angband.

Ruharg: Yes, that definitely came as a surprise. Many people thought Gondor would let Shire-Bree play their game and just play tighter with better execution, so no surprise that SB had a couple stat edges, but really that's more a product of Bombadil.

P: That's what I thought, and that's why Minas Tirith was so impressive- because it was a total team effort.

ATA: Oh, definitely! Ancalagon was a match-up problem for them, but they denied him the ball so well, and just controlled the midfield.

Ruharg: They had about a 65-35 possession edge, didn't they?

P: Let's see... 68-32 actually.

ATA: Angband doesn't need high possession to do damage, but they weren't looking for numbers like that.

R: Yes, all credit to Minas Tirith. They really played well.

P: Aradhil- are you particularly disappointed in Gondor?

ATA: Like we said- Bombadil was the difference. I think they had a good showing, so it's not a total disappointment.

R: They weren't getting past the quarters anyway.

P: Ah, hold on- we're not ready to discuss those match-ups yet.

R: Right, then let's get through these quickly so we can start talking about them.

P: All right- how about the other 2nd place finisher defeating a 1st place finisher, Real Valinor over The Sea?

R: Not really an upset. I think they were both serious contenders at about the same level, but the head-to-head match just favored Real.

ATA: Yes, I should've listened to you last week. I really went back and forth on this one deciding the winner, and in the end I backed the wrong side.

P: Head versus heart problem, perhaps?

ATA: Perhaps.

P: And how about the victories for Eriador, Erebor, FC, Rohan, and AC. Anything stick out?

R: I'll confess to being wrong about Eriador. They showed they could handle themselves.

ATA: And I was horribly wrong about Erebor. They put an absolute beating on Imladris. Seems I didn't respect the way their pieces fit together.

P: Were you impressed with the fight Dwarves United and Gondolin showed in their losses?

ATA: The Dwarves have really impressed me this tournament. Gondolin I knew was good though I thought AC Bel was a bad match for them. I think the lack of margin in that contest despite the red card was more a product of AC Bel being content to sit on their lead.

R: Yes, the Dwarves showed some nice tenacity, but against some of the other teams out there I think the score would've been ugly. Rohan doesn't run it up.

P: And the hottest team- FC Valinor?

ATA: Another two-goal margin. Same old, same old, heh heh.

R: They've definitely executed the best to this point, though Havens wasn't entirely unimpressive.

ATA: Yes, Havens competed well getting the lead initially, but their defense couldn't keep up in the end. With a couple pieces that team could really contend.

**********

P: Well all right- I think we're ready to cover the quarterfinals now!

R: Great!

ATA: Time to redeem myself!

P: Minas Tirith versus Eriador?

R: Eriador. They've got the most dangerous attack with Glorfindel and Witch King, and they've got Elrond at the back.

ATA: I'm rooting for Minas Tirith, but I definitely consider Eriador the favorite.

P: Could this be a blowout?

ATA: No, no- Minas Tirith will at least do that much. They'll play smart and won't give up anything easy, and they'll put enough pressure on Eriador to keep them honest.

R: Plus Elrond will be content to sit on a lead and isn't the sort to try and embarrass anyone even if his team was in the position to do so.

P: So, maybe a 2-1 game here?

ATA: That's what I'm picking.

R: I'm going with 2-0.

P: Now let's talk about Erebor versus FC Valinor.

ATA: Another smooth FC victory I figure, though with your cousin playing there I suppose you'll disagree, Ruharg?

R: Heh- yes yes, Smaug would never forgive me if I picked his squad to flame out like that. I've got to at least pick it to be close!

P: Family aside, what do you guys seriously think here?

R: I do think it will be close. FC won't get easy counters with the three eagles always wining back on defense, and their ability to move forward and help with pressure will be unique. All through Erebor's front they possess well- they just don't have a weak link. They can all move things and attack. And my good cousin Smaug will be the first such striker FC has faced.

ATA: I think Nahar is a decent dragon-stopper though.

R: We'll see.

ATA: I agree with your other praise, though. Though lacking a Feanor or Bombadil, Erebor can throw a lot of quality players at the opposition. Problem is, so can FC, and I think theirs are a bit better. I certainly wouldn't trade their forwards or midfielders for Erebor's anyway.

P: And the defense?

ATA: Erebor's eagles have performed well together, but Maglor is more useful on offense and has the ball skills, and once they're on the ground I wouldn't say the eagles are better than FC's defense.

P: And lastly, the keepers?

R: Beorn's been playing some excellent ball, but Huan is a proven commodity through the years.

ATA: So probably a wash, really.

P: So- final score?

ATA: FC wins 3-1.

R: Hmmm.... I suppose FC, but only by one goal. Perhaps in overtime.

P: And now let's talk about the other Valinor- Real playing Rohan.

ATA: I'm excited about this one! I think it'll be quite a tense contest!

R: Definitely. I really think it will come down to which side shows the most discipline.

P: Explain.

R: Real's triple-threat (Arien, Miriel, Nerdanel) I think will be countered by Felarof, Shadowfax, and Radagast, while on the other end I think Tilion, Caranthir, and Nienna can nullify Gandalf, Eorl, and Helm. Which squad will get frustrated first? Which will task their defenders with helping apply pressure on the other end, and will the double-duty distract them or tire them?

ATA: Indeed- both squads like to feature occasional deep runs from the hard-shooting defenders, but they can't afford to be caught to far upfield on a possession change.

P: Does that favor either side?

R: It's a draw, really. I think the horses are more likely to get in deep and have double-duty, but they can also dash back more quickly.

P: We know they have the speed, but after a long run upfield and a mad dash back, will they still have the legs to handle the agility and direction changes of Real's forwards?

ATA: That's the one thing I've wondered about- whether the terrific trio can misdirect and/or outsmart the athletic back line. That would give Real the definite edge.

R: I don't think they will. I think they'll play fast with good instincts. Plus I think Real will put more mental pressure on themselves to see a result.

P: So what's the verdict?

ATA: I'm taking Real 1-0.

R: Rohan 1-0.

P: And now for the final match- AC Beleriand against Shire-Bree United.

R: I'm betting we'll agree this time.

ATA: Heh, I imagine so.

P: Let me guess- you're going with AC?

ATA: Definitely. No disrespect- Shire-Bree's front four have proved so effective, but they aren't strong enough at the back.

R: Can you imagine Butterbur or Golfimbul trying to stop Feanor or Eol in the open field? Or attempting to outleap Beren for a header?

ATA: Shire-Bree will have to sell out in favor of possession in order to keep the score from being silly, because if AC is allowed to work, they'll get goals.

P: But can that fine front four of Shire-Bree keep them in it with scoring?

R: Bombadil is a genius, but he may not be on his game. And if he is, AC can bracket him with Fingolfin and Rochallor.

ATA: And that will still leave Ecthelion free to take care of Strider or Khamul, and then the rest of the team can surely apply pressure to the others.

R: Indeed. Possession won't be easy.

P: So, how about a score?

ATA: I hesitate to name one too lopsided, as Feanor might not consider it worth the exertion to keep scoring, and Fingoflin will likely encourage them to be sportsmanlike and call off the dogs.

R: I still think they get four.

ATA: I'm going to go with three.

P: And how many for Bombadil and company?

ATA: I suppose I can give the master one.

R: Zero.

P: All right then- there you have it. The experts have made their quarterfinal picks. Enjoy the games, everyone!