[Nogrod]

GAME 1

H2 Minas Tirith 7-7 1-3-0
31,8% 22 (54) – 24 (60) 70,8%

B1 Eriador 9-4 4-0-0
39,1% 23 (57) – 23 (53) 82,6%



The AKM considers this game the easiest one to predict as it thinks that Erebor has better chances to beat FC Valinor than Minas Tirith has championing over Eriador. Minas Tirith has had it’s free run and glorious team-play against either mediocre (the group phase) or very dissappointing (Angband) sides and will drop from the tournament when facing their first top-class opponent and having used already all the good luck resources any side could possibly have.

The two teams have shot and allowed pretty similar numbers but Eriador has had better opponents and their percentages (scoring efficiency & goal-keeping percentage) are roundly ten points higher. Also just looking at the scores from their group-games and friendlies Elrond has mostly given in one goal or then in few games none, while Denethor has given in mostly two and sometimes only one.

Minas Tirith seems to have found a collective game where all the players share the same pay and they seem to even score democratically. But this time they have to face very talented – even if mildly under-performed – Glorfindel and The Witch King (3+1 in four tournament games thus far for both of them) with their defence, and their offence would have to get past defenders like Gil-Galad and Malbeth only to face Elrond at goal. Purely looking at the price tags one could say that the area of the game Minas Tirith has chances to excel over Eriador is the midfield, but even there one has a) reason to believe that the MT salary-pact has overcompensated many of their midfielders while Eriador has hired them with decent market-prices, and b) to look at the stats to realise that Eriador midfield has been quite active indeed, a lot more than MT midfield anyway.

The AKM prediction:

Eriador wins 2-0

Phantasy-draft suggestions by the AKM:

You probably shouldn’t hire any Minas Tirith players into your team and if you have some, you might wish to get rid of them. Eriador defenders and forwards are all decent picks, and Elrond surely is a worthy pick. Now you might wish to pay heed to the fact that Eriador will most probably meet FC Valinor in the semifinals and so the defenders might be a bit riskier picks – but then again the team will play in the last game as well so they could still prove useful players in your line-up.


GAME 2

C1 Erebor 8-2 3-1-0
29,6% 27 (67) – 18 (47) 83,3%

D1 FC Valinor 11-3 4-0-0
36,7% 30 (70) – 18 (56) 83,3%



In this game there is also a clear favourite to win it. And it is no surprise it is FC Valinor. They have just been so confident and crushing in their game it is hard to see too many teams able to even challenge them to a fair battle. But… and there are two important “buts” here.

First of all, FC Valinor has played against some real quality sides (Real Valinor, Armenelos, Tirion, The Havens, Nargothrond…) but they haven’t yet played against a real top-quality keeper. And Beorn sure is this year’s sensation at the goal! And the eagle-defence has shown some remarkable skill and team-play thus far, so Erebor’s defence will also prove challenging.

Secondly, Smaug and Nazgûl #7 showed some real signs of awakening in their first play-off game, and if they are playing their best, they will surely give hard times for Huan and FC Valinor defenders.

That said, the AKM will still think FC Valinor will go forwards from this pair for they still are superior scorers – even against tougher opponents thus far – and Huan will just not be dropped this early from the games. But the stats of the both teams will be remade after the game asthus far both have scored a lot but given in inly a handful of goals: this time both will score, which means their defencive stas will go down quite a bit.

The AKM prediction:

FC Valinor wins 3-2 (3-1)

Phantasy-draft suggestions by the AKM:

Now this is a bit harder than the previous one. The players you have from the losing team will be eliminated from the tournament so it’s not all the same what you pick. The AKM will trust FC Valinor and suggest their players are good pick overall. But fex. if you don’t have Huan at your goal already this might nor be the best situation to pick him (leave that change for the next round if you mean to do it). If you wish to take risks or if you have confidence in your other picks so that you could afford a few ones to check for either a surprise (that they would continue playing) or for one game net-gain (to be changed away for the next round), then the AKM suggests considering Smaug, one of the defending eagles, or Beorn. You’d probably acquire some points with those picks at least on this round.


GAME 3

D2 Real Valinor 6-5 3-0-1
27,3% 22 (59) – 19 (49) 73,7%

F1 Rohan 4-1 3-1-0
26,7% 15 (47) – 13 (41) 92,3%



Now the AKM thinks this to be the hardest one to predict on this round. Had we been asked about the outcome of this game before the tournament we would have had no problem in declaring Real Valinor the obvious winners of the game, but after seeing all the games thus far we must take some of that back.

It is clear Rohan is not a scoring team but that they live and die with their defence: the three greats of the mearas aided by Radagast has been a real block in front of Theoden who is known as a quality keeper. They have been scored against only one goal in the four tournament-games thus far! It has, statistically, been the toughest team to score against in the whole tournament.

On the other hand, Real Valinor’s attack has been criticized of not performing up to the anticipation and many have felt the trio Arien – Miriel – Nerdanel hasn’t quite been up to what we looked for from them. At the same time, some voices (like that of the AKM) have tried to remind others that if we take away the two games against FC Valinor who clearly seems to have had an edge on the Real team, the performance of Real Valinor is not that bad but actually quite impressive (three goals made on average in every game if the friendlies are counted as well – and two per game if only tournament-games are included!).

So it will be in the end a question of whether Real Valinor’s attack is not in as a bad shape many believe it is – and thus unable to score enough against Theoden – or whether they can show their form and just outboot Rohan from the competition as Rohan surely will not score a lot.

The question then becomes, at the very end of the inquiry, that if Rohan manages to score one can Real score two? Or do we go to extra time or even penalties? The last possibility is a real one in this game, unless, like said, Real Valinor’s trio gets into the bussiness for real.

The AKM prediction:

Real Valinor wins 2-1 (normal or overtime)

Phantasy-draft suggestions by the AKM:

If Erebor vs. FC Valinor was somewhat hard here then this is a real killer. For even if we here in the AKM do predict that Real Valinor will win, it is not that clear – and when one makes phantasy drafts there are so many ways to try and balance those cruder choices one makes when only predicting a winning team.

But we have a rule of thumb for you anyway: if you think Rohan has chances to win or that Real Valinor isn’t going to make a horde of goals, then a Rohan defender or Theoden could be good ideas to have in your team (anyway we don’t suggest you take Rohan midfielders or forwards into your team); but if you believe in Real winning the game, then probably most of the Real players are good picks as Rohan will not score too much and then going through to the next stage they will not be redundant players aka. they would give you room for those limited choices you have. The question as to the power-trio and whether to take one of them in your team – and whom – is something we can’t give you an advice on as we’re wrestling on the same issue ourselves and don’t honestly know what to do.


GAME 4

G1 AC Beleriand 10-3 3-1-0
35,7% 28 (67) – 14 (41) 78,6%

A2 Shire-Bree Utd. 8-7 2-2-0
27,6% 29 (62) – 23 (67) 69,6%



This is another game the AKM would have had a straightforward answer before the tournament but on which we need to be a bit more careful after seeing the games thus far. But even if we try our best to find reasons why Shire-Bree could surprise us once again, we just don’t seem to find that. Their greatest result thus far is drawing with Angband but even Minas Tirith beat Angband (even if only with penalties but nevertheless). And winning Gondor on the first round of the play-offs isn’t that much a feat: or would you take that’s as a proof of AC Beleriand’s especially tough form if they had beaten Gondor? ‘nuff said.

Now many have questioned AC Beleriand’s defences and it is true that they have not met too many attacking powerhouses thus far and thus their defencive stats might look a bit too good. But then again, they left Gondolin into zero goals in their first play-off game. And winning Gondolin 2-0 in the first play-off game is just worlds apart from winning Gondor in a penalty shoot-out after a 2-2 draw.

So yes, Bombadil is one of the best there is, in anything he does it seems, and he has sdome quality support in offence if he is interested in playing in the first place. But Shire-Bree’s defences are the worst in the play-offs at this time. Facing a team with attacking quality AC Beleriand has – Fëanor, Beren, Eöl – it seems clear they are on the receiving side in this game. A lot of the outcome will be actually decided on how well Fingolfin can organise his defences against Bombadil and the Barrow-Wight as Fëanor & co will score ruthlessly anyway.

The AKM prediction:

AC Beleriand wins 4-2

Phantasy-draft suggestions by the AKM:

Unless you wish to go for one-time point-gathering risk with Bombadil, The Barrow-Wight, Khâmul or Strider, then the AKM suggests to stay away from the Shire-Bree team. AC Beleriand team’s players seem to be a lot better picks.

On a short term a lot depends on whether they will meet Real Valinor or Rohan in the semis: in the first instance defending players would be better choices but in the latter offensive ones. Looking just at this game, offencive players are a good idea but as SB might also score a few, the defenders might not bring you top points unless they score or assist themselves. Fëanor is a pricey choice (he’s even in the phantasy points with Bombadil at the moment!) but more often than not he also delivers. Beren was on fire on the first games but has cooled down lately, whereas we’re still looking forwards when Eöl will flash forwards… maybe this game?