The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum - View Single Post - WW CI - Mutton yesterDay, mutton toDay and mutton toMorrow

Coppermirror · 01-24-2013, 07:10 AM

Pom analysis/recap, page 1:

- Pom has the second post, with banter.
- Morsul lists Pom as "tends to be suspicious to me" in his first impressions list.
- Pom recaps the rules, and then asks Morsul about what his statement about her means for how he'll treat her. Then encourages people to post more and get discussion going.
- Morsul replies that it means he'll avoid knee-jerk reactions.
- Morsul says "Pom's suggestion seems to be fairly genuine little information is better than no information." That's a bit odd.
- Inzil comments on the above, saying it was more ordinary Day 1 stuff than a suggestion.
- Nerwen comments in banter-style about Pom's lack of troll-speak giving her a headache.
- McCaber makes a recap post. He characterises Inzil's post as having defended Pom, and Nerwen's as "more suspicion of Pom".

I have to wonder why McCaber was putting that sort of spin on those posts. To me, Inzil's comment had nothing to do with defending Pom, and Nerwen's looked like banter rather than real suspicion. Why the focus on Pom?

Pom, page 2:

- Brinniel gives three people including Pom points for effort. Later thinks that "Pom seems okay as well, for now" when going through opinions, and that was reasonable at the time.

Pom, page 3:

- Pom posts her first round of impressions. On Nerwenvs Gil, doesn't think that it means either is guilty. About Gil, says that he seems more like a typical first-day-lynch victim. Then she goes ahead with saying I'm looking much worse than either of them, with theories about motives.

- Pom misreads Nog's poem as having the wrong number of wizards in, and considers whether it could be a tactic for appearing innocent, as she would think that Nog would check the rules. Then thinks it would be strange for him to use that sort of strategy and that she doesn't know what to think, so will just inform.

This has to be either a strategy to throw mild suspicion on an innocent, or feigned suspicion to hide a wizard-mate. I've no idea which at this point.

- Pom says her gut feeling for Rikae is good, but her feelings for Brin don't hold up so well on second readings, regarding Brin's suspicion of Nerwen. Says of the latter that "even though I wouldn't say it makes Ner happily innocent in my eyes, I wouldn't see it as suspicious, more the opposite".

It's hard to say what this means. Maybe something will pop out later.

- Pom says she has to vote now and so votes for me, saying there isn't time to look for subtleties in other posts. Says she doesn't like Brin's vote and will be keeping an eye on her, but will give her a pass for today as she has another suspect (me) and she likes that Brin was making an effort.

What does this mean for Brin...? I'm inclined to think that it's more likely to suggest that Brin is innocent than not. It looks as if she's saving her up for later or trying to encourage later votes (as the day...night...was young). On the other hand, I can't see anyone else criticising Brin at that point.

- Posts saying she now doesn't know what to make of McCaber, with wonderings about whether he's jumping on a bandwagon. She now wants us to watch those who vote for me. Sally jumps immediately on the latter statement, followed by Inzil and McCaber. (And it didn't go down with anyone else well either.)

- Rikae doesn't like Pom or McCab's votes.

- Greenie thinks Pom and Cab's votes look a tad opportunistic, the latter more so. Later, in response to Bane, thinks that Pom must have known that her statement would sound incongruous.

Pom, page 4:

- Loslote says that "Pom feels like she's trying to be reasonable and agreeable while actually being nothing of the sort" and is her top suspect at present.

- Nog thinks that Pom could easily have made that statement as an innocent, but goes on to say that then again, a wizard could have done that to try to look considerate, worrying that her vote wasn't as safe as she thought and trying to downplay bandwagoning.

- Inzil votes Pom, for the vote and her remark.

- Loslote finds the three waves of suspicion too easy, and votes Pom as she suspects her and this is an alternative to the bandwagons.

- Volo thinks Pom feels more genuine than Nerwen and McCaber.

- Nog suspects Pom a little, because of her remark.

- Sally votes Pom for attempted bandwagoning.

- Bane says Pom is his top suspect, but that he might not vote this time.

- Shasta shows up and casts the deciding vote for Pom, on grounds of gut feelings and bandwagoning.

- Nog agrees with a Pom lynch, but votes McCaber, thinking that future votes could tell us something. That's a bit odd, given that only two people had yet to vote at that point.

So based on the above, I'm more likely to think that Brin is innocent than not. Nog's posts might have been a subtle wizard-attempt to save Pom, but I don't see why he would bother doing so. I'll have to think about this more. Sally jumped immediately on Pom's remark and seemed very innocent all along. It could have been a very canny wizard's tactic to put in the first kick to a ship they thought was sure to sink, but still...drawing immediate attention to another wizard, on Day 1, when there were other candidates for voting? That's risky enough for me to assume she's more likely to be innocent, although I must admit I've never seen a wolf Sally and have no idea how she's likely to behave.

The way McCaber phrased things in post #29 does make me a bit suspicious, but it's not enough to let me draw any conclusions. My impression at this point is that Pom made her remark because she was worried of being seen as jumping on a bandwagon. I still have to work out whether and what that means for McCaber's status.

While looking through I noticed that some people were suspicious of me not just for my vote but for "looking helpful", apparently in post #56 where I recapped things so far. I'd like to point out, as Nerwen did, that that sort of post is pretty normal for me at that point of the game. If all there is is banter, I still look at the banter and try to see if anything stands out. That sort of post is mostly to help me think through things. In post #56, I wasn't able to find anything there of interest during the time I had available.

And now I'm going for a while, because this post took me two hours to write.

Edit: cross posted with Nerwen.

01-24-2013, 07:10 AM	#191
Coppermirror Shade of Carn Dûm Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 344	Pom analysis/recap, page 1: - Pom has the second post, with banter. - Morsul lists Pom as "tends to be suspicious to me" in his first impressions list. - Pom recaps the rules, and then asks Morsul about what his statement about her means for how he'll treat her. Then encourages people to post more and get discussion going. - Morsul replies that it means he'll avoid knee-jerk reactions. - Morsul says "Pom's suggestion seems to be fairly genuine little information is better than no information." That's a bit odd. - Inzil comments on the above, saying it was more ordinary Day 1 stuff than a suggestion. - Nerwen comments in banter-style about Pom's lack of troll-speak giving her a headache. - McCaber makes a recap post. He characterises Inzil's post as having defended Pom, and Nerwen's as "more suspicion of Pom". I have to wonder why McCaber was putting that sort of spin on those posts. To me, Inzil's comment had nothing to do with defending Pom, and Nerwen's looked like banter rather than real suspicion. Why the focus on Pom? Pom, page 2: - Brinniel gives three people including Pom points for effort. Later thinks that "Pom seems okay as well, for now" when going through opinions, and that was reasonable at the time. Pom, page 3: - Pom posts her first round of impressions. On Nerwenvs Gil, doesn't think that it means either is guilty. About Gil, says that he seems more like a typical first-day-lynch victim. Then she goes ahead with saying I'm looking much worse than either of them, with theories about motives. - Pom misreads Nog's poem as having the wrong number of wizards in, and considers whether it could be a tactic for appearing innocent, as she would think that Nog would check the rules. Then thinks it would be strange for him to use that sort of strategy and that she doesn't know what to think, so will just inform. This has to be either a strategy to throw mild suspicion on an innocent, or feigned suspicion to hide a wizard-mate. I've no idea which at this point. - Pom says her gut feeling for Rikae is good, but her feelings for Brin don't hold up so well on second readings, regarding Brin's suspicion of Nerwen. Says of the latter that "even though I wouldn't say it makes Ner happily innocent in my eyes, I wouldn't see it as suspicious, more the opposite". It's hard to say what this means. Maybe something will pop out later. - Pom says she has to vote now and so votes for me, saying there isn't time to look for subtleties in other posts. Says she doesn't like Brin's vote and will be keeping an eye on her, but will give her a pass for today as she has another suspect (me) and she likes that Brin was making an effort. What does this mean for Brin...? I'm inclined to think that it's more likely to suggest that Brin is innocent than not. It looks as if she's saving her up for later or trying to encourage later votes (as the day...night...was young). On the other hand, I can't see anyone else criticising Brin at that point. - Posts saying she now doesn't know what to make of McCaber, with wonderings about whether he's jumping on a bandwagon. She now wants us to watch those who vote for me. Sally jumps immediately on the latter statement, followed by Inzil and McCaber. (And it didn't go down with anyone else well either.) - Rikae doesn't like Pom or McCab's votes. - Greenie thinks Pom and Cab's votes look a tad opportunistic, the latter more so. Later, in response to Bane, thinks that Pom must have known that her statement would sound incongruous. Pom, page 4: - Loslote says that "Pom feels like she's trying to be reasonable and agreeable while actually being nothing of the sort" and is her top suspect at present. - Nog thinks that Pom could easily have made that statement as an innocent, but goes on to say that then again, a wizard could have done that to try to look considerate, worrying that her vote wasn't as safe as she thought and trying to downplay bandwagoning. - Inzil votes Pom, for the vote and her remark. - Loslote finds the three waves of suspicion too easy, and votes Pom as she suspects her and this is an alternative to the bandwagons. - Volo thinks Pom feels more genuine than Nerwen and McCaber. - Nog suspects Pom a little, because of her remark. - Sally votes Pom for attempted bandwagoning. - Bane says Pom is his top suspect, but that he might not vote this time. - Shasta shows up and casts the deciding vote for Pom, on grounds of gut feelings and bandwagoning. - Nog agrees with a Pom lynch, but votes McCaber, thinking that future votes could tell us something. That's a bit odd, given that only two people had yet to vote at that point. So based on the above, I'm more likely to think that Brin is innocent than not. Nog's posts might have been a subtle wizard-attempt to save Pom, but I don't see why he would bother doing so. I'll have to think about this more. Sally jumped immediately on Pom's remark and seemed very innocent all along. It could have been a very canny wizard's tactic to put in the first kick to a ship they thought was sure to sink, but still...drawing immediate attention to another wizard, on Day 1, when there were other candidates for voting? That's risky enough for me to assume she's more likely to be innocent, although I must admit I've never seen a wolf Sally and have no idea how she's likely to behave. The way McCaber phrased things in post #29 does make me a bit suspicious, but it's not enough to let me draw any conclusions. My impression at this point is that Pom made her remark because she was worried of being seen as jumping on a bandwagon. I still have to work out whether and what that means for McCaber's status. While looking through I noticed that some people were suspicious of me not just for my vote but for "looking helpful", apparently in post #56 where I recapped things so far. I'd like to point out, as Nerwen did, that that sort of post is pretty normal for me at that point of the game. If all there is is banter, I still look at the banter and try to see if anything stands out. That sort of post is mostly to help me think through things. In post #56, I wasn't able to find anything there of interest during the time I had available. And now I'm going for a while, because this post took me two hours to write. Edit: cross posted with Nerwen.