The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum - View Single Post - Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood

Formendacil · 06-06-2020, 06:13 PM

LOSLOTE:

I'm not sure if I'm surprised Lottie was killed or not. I was looking over things during the Night phase hours, and she was on my Question Mark list as someone who had said a lot (she posted 22 times yesterDay, the most in village), but was only quoted or referred to 25 times--the 7th most in the village.

Granted, this is coming from my rather subjectively-determined way of recording things, but in general there is a correlation between the amount someone posted and the amount they were spoken of. For example, Huin posted 18 times, good for a tie with Shasta for 3rd-most, and he was quoted or referred to in 54 posts, which was the most--and that seems about right, since he ended up being the lynchee.

One post of Loslote's that I flagged as being a bit odd was 154 of this thread, where she does not mention me, she does not mention Nilp, nor Pitch, nor Sally. Sally is easy enough to explain as having not been around, but when I was still considering if she might have been a wolf, I wondered if what was generally a comprehensive post (i.e. it's the "here's what I'm thinking about everyone post") why the rest of us were missing. Could be that Nilp and I had both been quite active--and she HAD posted about Pitch.

Anyway, does that mean anything now that she's dead? Probably not, though MAYBE if the wolves were looking to kill someone that had left no suspicions back in their direction and they were looking chiefly at people's "here's what I'm thinking about everyone posts", there is a wolf or two hidden in those absences.

HUINESORON:

My records of who mentioned/quoted seem a bit less useful here, since he turned out to be ordinary, and I'm not seeing anything yet in the people who mentioned HIM that reveals anything. As already noted, he was very active yesterday, so there's references to him. The flip-flop on me mid-post, resulting in his vote for me, was weird, but the real value there is in how it got leapt on and became the driving factor for his lynching. Frankly, I was Don Quixote against the Day 1 Windmills and then the Mad "What if we lynch no one" scientist (which, once I thought it through over several posts became a hole I was aware I was digging), so a vote for me as I grew more ridiculous over the course of the day seems more justified (even I know it was wrong) than the backlash to that vote became.

If I had the money to wager, I'd lay it all on the proposition that there was a wolf among those who voted to lynch Huin.

GUT REACTIONS TO HUIN'S LYNCHERS:

Shasta, Rikae, Nog, and Kath.

Shasta has a relatively high post-count (tied for 3rd at 18), but this is somewhat deceptive as a guide to his activity level, since his modus operandi was to make quick, one-paragraph replies to specific people/topics. He rarely posted in great depth--but he was involved. My gut inclines to say he's not an ordo... but that could just as well mean Gifted as Wolf.

Rikae disturbs me, but I don't know why. Just a different vibe/posting style?

Nog DOESN'T disturb me, and I actually think that's suspicious--as though he's trying too hard to be mellow and disinterested. That makes me think Gifted/Wolf again, but I lean Wolf.

Kath seems just a bit off-kilter, but I don't know why. She's the only one of these four that I think a possible cobbler right now.

OTHER THOUGHTS:

I mentioned that Loslote had struck me as having a somewhat off-kilter relationship between her number of posts and number of quotes/mentions. No one else was as drastic here, but Shasta also stood out as having posted a lot (as noted, third most) but didn't garner much attention--only 18 quotes/mentions by my count, good for 9th place. This might just be because his posting style inflates his post count relative to how much he actually said.

Pitchwife said relatively little (11 posts/9th most) but got a higher amount of attention (28 mentions/quotes - 4th most). I don't have a theory right now for what this might mean.

Kath also said fairly little (9 posts/10th most) but got a good amount of traction (26 mention/quotes - 6th most). She actually NEVER mentions Pitch that I recorded (but I think she doesn't bold names as much as some of us, so I could have missed them in my tally) but *IF* my tally is right, could this mean they're both Wolves? Pitch voted for her and she voted for Huin: could Kath have been subtly avoiding creating any ties to a fellow Wolf while Pitch made sure to set up a bit of an alibi for down the road that was completely safe to do? Kath was never in any danger of dying.

Then there's the lurkers: obviously, we all hope Sally is well enough to give us some posts, but there's also Mac, who has the same number of posts as Sally! Somehow, despite posting as little as Sally, Mac was even more under the radar: 7 mentions/quotes to Sally's 12. Of course, that could just be everyone wishing Sally well, but it still goes to show that if anyone flew under the radar, it's Mac.

Well--and Greenie. She was next-to-last after Mac and Sally in posting and tied with Mac in mentions. Of course, low posting correlates with low mentions, so this isn't a proof of Wolvishness, by any means, but it IS the stratum where a Wolf would love to hide, so worth investigating.

06-06-2020, 06:13 PM	#213
Formendacil Dead Serious Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Perched on Thangorodrim's towers. Posts: 3,347	LOSLOTE: I'm not sure if I'm surprised Lottie was killed or not. I was looking over things during the Night phase hours, and she was on my Question Mark list as someone who had said a lot (she posted 22 times yesterDay, the most in village), but was only quoted or referred to 25 times--the 7th most in the village. Granted, this is coming from my rather subjectively-determined way of recording things, but in general there is a correlation between the amount someone posted and the amount they were spoken of. For example, Huin posted 18 times, good for a tie with Shasta for 3rd-most, and he was quoted or referred to in 54 posts, which was the most--and that seems about right, since he ended up being the lynchee. One post of Loslote's that I flagged as being a bit odd was 154 of this thread, where she does not mention me, she does not mention Nilp, nor Pitch, nor Sally. Sally is easy enough to explain as having not been around, but when I was still considering if she might have been a wolf, I wondered if what was generally a comprehensive post (i.e. it's the "here's what I'm thinking about everyone post") why the rest of us were missing. Could be that Nilp and I had both been quite active--and she HAD posted about Pitch. Anyway, does that mean anything now that she's dead? Probably not, though MAYBE if the wolves were looking to kill someone that had left no suspicions back in their direction and they were looking chiefly at people's "here's what I'm thinking about everyone posts", there is a wolf or two hidden in those absences. HUINESORON: My records of who mentioned/quoted seem a bit less useful here, since he turned out to be ordinary, and I'm not seeing anything yet in the people who mentioned HIM that reveals anything. As already noted, he was very active yesterday, so there's references to him. The flip-flop on me mid-post, resulting in his vote for me, was weird, but the real value there is in how it got leapt on and became the driving factor for his lynching. Frankly, I was Don Quixote against the Day 1 Windmills and then the Mad "What if we lynch no one" scientist (which, once I thought it through over several posts became a hole I was aware I was digging), so a vote for me as I grew more ridiculous over the course of the day seems more justified (even I know it was wrong) than the backlash to that vote became. If I had the money to wager, I'd lay it all on the proposition that there was a wolf among those who voted to lynch Huin. GUT REACTIONS TO HUIN'S LYNCHERS: Shasta, Rikae, Nog, and Kath. Shasta has a relatively high post-count (tied for 3rd at 18), but this is somewhat deceptive as a guide to his activity level, since his modus operandi was to make quick, one-paragraph replies to specific people/topics. He rarely posted in great depth--but he was involved. My gut inclines to say he's not an ordo... but that could just as well mean Gifted as Wolf. Rikae disturbs me, but I don't know why. Just a different vibe/posting style? Nog DOESN'T disturb me, and I actually think that's suspicious--as though he's trying too hard to be mellow and disinterested. That makes me think Gifted/Wolf again, but I lean Wolf. Kath seems just a bit off-kilter, but I don't know why. She's the only one of these four that I think a possible cobbler right now. OTHER THOUGHTS: I mentioned that Loslote had struck me as having a somewhat off-kilter relationship between her number of posts and number of quotes/mentions. No one else was as drastic here, but Shasta also stood out as having posted a lot (as noted, third most) but didn't garner much attention--only 18 quotes/mentions by my count, good for 9th place. This might just be because his posting style inflates his post count relative to how much he actually said. Pitchwife said relatively little (11 posts/9th most) but got a higher amount of attention (28 mentions/quotes - 4th most). I don't have a theory right now for what this might mean. Kath also said fairly little (9 posts/10th most) but got a good amount of traction (26 mention/quotes - 6th most). She actually NEVER mentions Pitch that I recorded (but I think she doesn't bold names as much as some of us, so I could have missed them in my tally) but IF my tally is right, could this mean they're both Wolves? Pitch voted for her and she voted for Huin: could Kath have been subtly avoiding creating any ties to a fellow Wolf while Pitch made sure to set up a bit of an alibi for down the road that was completely safe to do? Kath was never in any danger of dying. Then there's the lurkers: obviously, we all hope Sally is well enough to give us some posts, but there's also Mac, who has the same number of posts as Sally! Somehow, despite posting as little as Sally, Mac was even more under the radar: 7 mentions/quotes to Sally's 12. Of course, that could just be everyone wishing Sally well, but it still goes to show that if anyone flew under the radar, it's Mac. Well--and Greenie. She was next-to-last after Mac and Sally in posting and tied with Mac in mentions. Of course, low posting correlates with low mentions, so this isn't a proof of Wolvishness, by any means, but it IS the stratum where a Wolf would love to hide, so worth investigating. __________________ I prefer history, true or feigned.