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Originally Posted by Nogrod
The first interest of the BW is to not get lynched as only the village can out her. So she can't afford being dreamt of and should then take as low profile as possible in regards the seer; she needs to stay alive to the very end, remember? Do you really consider impersonating the seer (which some of you seem to claim I did) is the way to keep the seer away? Honestly...
The second interest of the BW is to have a maximum number of kills happening (due to her hard victory-conditions), so what is the sense of trying to impersonate the seer with the risk of getting it right and thus calling the wolves to meet her during the Night to no kill being made?
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And anyway, if (and when) Aganzir is a cobbler, the wolves wouldn't know it to be true as they don't know who the cobbler is.
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So I agree with the first two parts quite a bit. There is no logical reason for the BW to pretend to be the Seer, it's silly, and so if the Wolves chose someone who they felt looked liked a Seer then whatever hints they saw were likely not something the BW meant to do (meaning he probably just said he found someone suspicious, and that person happened to be a wolf; he was not in fact trying to pretend to be the Seer). But all that is assuming they were going for the Seer, which considering how many low key people there were yesterDay, I'm thinking is not as likely as a no-trail kill. And being quiet and under the radar is a much smarter tactic for the BW. Conclusion: they likely went for someone quiet yesterDay, and therefore the BW is someone who was quiet yesterDay.
Overall I feel fairly good about Nog, except the way he is so convinced that Agan is the Cobbler, it's just fishy.
Shasta I'm fairly uneasy about, he comes in with his two Assumptions, the first being that the wolves went for the Seer, and then seems to think that Nog is the only possible option for that. Plus his case had a lot of holes in it, and the way he jumped on Inzil for 'defending Nog' was weird, since I don't feel as though Inzil was really defending him, he was more just disagreeing with Shasta's assumptions.
Also Volo, this:
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Volo
This is a game where certain knowledge is rare. Post-mortem role revelations and the dreams of a dead Seer are of such quality, but not much else. However players are making accusations based on little hunches, glimpses and clues, which are not definite. The BW also plays by these rules, being quite similar to an Ordo. However, xe can stun, which affects xer way of looking at players' roles. The knowledge of someone being stunned will certainly affect the way the BW looks upon xer victim next Day and might notice things others wouldn't necessarily notice. By "mildly eductated hunches" I meant a wider perspective than that of an ordo's.Related to this was my comment of not angering the BW, which has also been understood in a way I didn't mean it. Based on basic WW psychology I see the following scenario very likely: The BW is suspected for one reason or the other and is very likely or certainly going to be lynched. Xer reaction to this is, probably, wanting revenge to those who caused xer demise, who, in the case of a lynch, are the Innocents (the lynch being the Innocents' way of killing). Xe can revenge by making the game more favourable to the enemies of xer enemies, the Wolves. And this is done by the BW telling on the game thread who xe thinks are the Gifteds - something a Cobbler would do in the similar situation. All in all this is a minor point explained in a long way and this discussion should perhaps be forgotten in favour of using up time for the real game, instead of meta.
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Because, I still don't understand how on earth the BW ends up with any more knowledge then the rest of us. I also don't understand why you think they would reveal any of this 'knowledge' or why it would even make any difference. Let's say the Ranger is about to be lynched and at the last minute decides to announce who their picks were every Night, this would provide absolutely nothing for us (unless they had managed to make a save at some point). All we would have is an innocent's list of people they trusted enough to protect, which really doesn't include any special knowledge. It's the same here, the names the BW would be revealing would really just be a list of people they thought might have powers to threaten them, but that doesn't include any special knowledge, so the wolves would have no real reason to go with it. I just don't understand why you seem to think the BW has all this inside info that could harm us. Anyway...
So I need to get back to writing my rediculous history assignment and I should be back soonish to decide who I actually suspect (right now there are some I'm uncomfortable with and the rest I have no opinnion about, so I want to correct that, I need more suspects).
x'ed with Shasta