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Nogrod · 06-27-2014, 09:47 AM

The issue of the Skip-wagon...

Yeah. Both instinct and experience say there should be lion(s) there.

Still I'd like to add a qualification to the pot, and that is the fact that the lions really need to do that kind of thing only if one (or two) of them is - or there is some reason for them to believe is going to be - under pressure.

If the lions have no problems, they normally love to make the kind of "insignificant" votes aka. not ones that lead into lynches as then they are not responsible of lynching an innocent others will look so closely the next Day (the power of a succesful wolf-on-wolf lynch-vote is exactly the mirror-image of the aforementioned principle!). But if one (or two) of them is in trouble, they'd love to hop any wagon that would go faster than the one including one of them.

Skip-wagon look pretty fishy looking at the reasons people gave for their votes, but the more votes Skip gathered, the easier it was to give one more.

So were the lions in trouble then when Skip-wagon got some speed? That depends on whether some of them had already garnered suspicion - or votes even - before the Skip-mania started.

People who got votes before the Skip-train started rolling were: Gil, Lottie and Inzil.

Of those Lottie received her vote after she had herself already given Skip his first vote. Looks the most innocent of the three - which does not mean she is innocent by any default because of the order of the votes.

Gil voted a lot later for Boro when Skip already had 5 votes - which could be said to be almost a throwaway vote, and exactly kind of vote a lion might wish to do (see above). So not involved with Skip whose death had a high probability at the time of his vote.

Inzil again is interestingly involved both in being voted and suspected by a few people - and pushing Skip into clear lead by his vote. From this POV he looks the most suspicious to me. But is that enough to lynch him... I'm not sure.

Kitanna didn't have a vote herself at the time she voted for Skip but she could be seen as one of the key-players in opening the path to the Skip-wagon being the second voter - and Wilwa notoriusly was the third before Inzil. But Im not sure how confident I am with that thought either.

Food for thought, then.

EDIT: X'd with some novels...

06-27-2014, 09:47 AM	#240
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	The issue of the Skip-wagon... Yeah. Both instinct and experience say there should be lion(s) there. Still I'd like to add a qualification to the pot, and that is the fact that the lions really need to do that kind of thing only if one (or two) of them is - or there is some reason for them to believe is going to be - under pressure. If the lions have no problems, they normally love to make the kind of "insignificant" votes aka. not ones that lead into lynches as then they are not responsible of lynching an innocent others will look so closely the next Day (the power of a succesful wolf-on-wolf lynch-vote is exactly the mirror-image of the aforementioned principle!). But if one (or two) of them is in trouble, they'd love to hop any wagon that would go faster than the one including one of them. Skip-wagon look pretty fishy looking at the reasons people gave for their votes, but the more votes Skip gathered, the easier it was to give one more. So were the lions in trouble then when Skip-wagon got some speed? That depends on whether some of them had already garnered suspicion - or votes even - before the Skip-mania started. People who got votes before the Skip-train started rolling were: Gil, Lottie and Inzil. Of those Lottie received her vote after she had herself already given Skip his first vote. Looks the most innocent of the three - which does not mean she is innocent by any default because of the order of the votes. Gil voted a lot later for Boro when Skip already had 5 votes - which could be said to be almost a throwaway vote, and exactly kind of vote a lion might wish to do (see above). So not involved with Skip whose death had a high probability at the time of his vote. Inzil again is interestingly involved both in being voted and suspected by a few people - and pushing Skip into clear lead by his vote. From this POV he looks the most suspicious to me. But is that enough to lynch him... I'm not sure. Kitanna didn't have a vote herself at the time she voted for Skip but she could be seen as one of the key-players in opening the path to the Skip-wagon being the second voter - and Wilwa notoriusly was the third before Inzil. But Im not sure how confident I am with that thought either. Food for thought, then. EDIT: X'd with some novels... __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet...