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Legate of Amon Lanc · 06-04-2015, 04:42 AM

Just posting the sort of analysis of yesterDay's votes I thought I might make...

(I copied the list from morm's post, so I really hope it's correct!)

Nilp -> Nilp
Rune -> Formendacil
Mormegil -> Macalaure
Lalaith -> Legate
Kath -> Formendacil 2
Aganzir -> Lommy
Lommy -> Aganzir
Legate -> A Little Green
Nogrod -> Aganzir 2
Form -> Form 3
Mith -> Agan 3
McCaber -> Agan 4
Firefoot -> Gwath
Boro -> Nog
Rikae -> Lommy 2
Mac -> Agan 5
TP -> Nog 2
Lottie -> Nog 3
Eomer -> Nog 4
Shasta -> Nog 5
Sally -> Nog 6

First thing to note, if we were talking about Aganwagon and Nogwagon appearing, there was, in fact, also already a sort of Formwagon. With that said that Form's self-vote seemed really dangerous to him, so I don't expect him to be a Wolf. Aganwagon was pushed forward most of all by the votes of Nog and Mith, and in both cases I am kind of dubious as to whether they would be doing it out of Wolfish intent. (There was the whole debate about who to vote going on at that time. Nog could be the one out of the two I'd rather suspect of Wolfy intention, given that he was earlier also testing the water with voting the phantom and all, but then again, even as innocent he would simply have ran out of options.) McCaber is more or less what would be the nail in the coffin if the vote had been successful, along with Mac.

There is the - for now, I'd say absolutely unlikely - possibility that Mac and Form are packmates and Macwolf was saving Formwolf and toDay again in the post earlier on where he was also saying he isn't likely to be Wolf (on logical grounds). But it would have to be really, really bold play from Form to vote himself at that moment if he were a Wolf, of course unless he were sure that e.g. Mac and maybe somebody else are going to save him etc. But this possibility I am mentioning rather just in case there are some revelations in the future which would suddenly e.g. show that Form might be a Wolf.

Back to the main topic: To be sure, the final push for the Nogwagon looks fishy by itself: all the people basically jumped up (or rather, down, since I have the red zone as the last) my list, because I would be really surprised if at least one Wolf didn't hide there. Statistically, I'd guess at least two, maybe even from different packs, especially if Nog is innocent (in that case, I'd easily imagine e.g. 2 and 1 Wolves voting there, or somesuch).

Effectively, based purely on votes, I'd be most curious about McCaber, Macalaure, and then the bunch of Nog-voters. Given that we don't know almost anything (like what role Nog actually is and all), can't really operate well on this. But just a way to sort out people in my head again in some different manner.

Probably will have to go now for the time being, but will post more later, obviously...

06-04-2015, 04:42 AM	#276
Legate of Amon Lanc A Voice That Gainsayeth Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: In that far land beyond the Sea Posts: 7,431	Just posting the sort of analysis of yesterDay's votes I thought I might make... (I copied the list from morm's post, so I really hope it's correct!) Nilp -> Nilp Rune -> Formendacil Mormegil -> Macalaure Lalaith -> Legate Kath -> Formendacil 2 Aganzir -> Lommy Lommy -> Aganzir Legate -> A Little Green Nogrod -> Aganzir 2 Form -> Form 3 Mith -> Agan 3 McCaber -> Agan 4 Firefoot -> Gwath Boro -> Nog Rikae -> Lommy 2 Mac -> Agan 5 TP -> Nog 2 Lottie -> Nog 3 Eomer -> Nog 4 Shasta -> Nog 5 Sally -> Nog 6 First thing to note, if we were talking about Aganwagon and Nogwagon appearing, there was, in fact, also already a sort of Formwagon. With that said that Form's self-vote seemed really dangerous to him, so I don't expect him to be a Wolf. Aganwagon was pushed forward most of all by the votes of Nog and Mith, and in both cases I am kind of dubious as to whether they would be doing it out of Wolfish intent. (There was the whole debate about who to vote going on at that time. Nog could be the one out of the two I'd rather suspect of Wolfy intention, given that he was earlier also testing the water with voting the phantom and all, but then again, even as innocent he would simply have ran out of options.) McCaber is more or less what would be the nail in the coffin if the vote had been successful, along with Mac. There is the - for now, I'd say absolutely unlikely - possibility that Mac and Form are packmates and Macwolf was saving Formwolf and toDay again in the post earlier on where he was also saying he isn't likely to be Wolf (on logical grounds). But it would have to be really, really bold play from Form to vote himself at that moment if he were a Wolf, of course unless he were sure that e.g. Mac and maybe somebody else are going to save him etc. But this possibility I am mentioning rather just in case there are some revelations in the future which would suddenly e.g. show that Form might be a Wolf. Back to the main topic: To be sure, the final push for the Nogwagon looks fishy by itself: all the people basically jumped up (or rather, down, since I have the red zone as the last) my list, because I would be really surprised if at least one Wolf didn't hide there. Statistically, I'd guess at least two, maybe even from different packs, especially if Nog is innocent (in that case, I'd easily imagine e.g. 2 and 1 Wolves voting there, or somesuch). Effectively, based purely on votes, I'd be most curious about McCaber, Macalaure, and then the bunch of Nog-voters. Given that we don't know almost anything (like what role Nog actually is and all), can't really operate well on this. But just a way to sort out people in my head again in some different manner. Probably will have to go now for the time being, but will post more later, obviously... __________________ "Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories