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Old 05-17-2020, 10:35 AM   #1407
Thinlómien
Shady She-Penguin
 
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Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In a far land beyond the Sea
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Thinlómien is wading through the Dead Marshes.Thinlómien is wading through the Dead Marshes.Thinlómien is wading through the Dead Marshes.Thinlómien is wading through the Dead Marshes.Thinlómien is wading through the Dead Marshes.Thinlómien is wading through the Dead Marshes.
We're 8, including 2 wolves.

We lynch an innocent toDay? ToMorrow is Day7 - we are 6, including 2 wolves. We lynch a wolf, then on Day8 we are 4 including 1. We need to lynch a wolf again. (We don't lynch a wolf toDay or toMorrow, game over immediately. But frankly that's not possible.)

We lynch a wolf toDay? ToMorrow it's 6, including 1 wolf. We miss our shot? On Day8 we have still the 4 including 1 scenario.

So: in short, in order to win we have to lynch 2 wolves in 3 days. In other words, we can afford to mislynch once.

So: I don't think it would make sense for the wolves to fake seer reveal in this situation. Okay, maybe to "flush out the real seer" but what's really the chance at this point that the real seer 1) won't come out toDay anyway, 2) would survive the next Night in hiding?

I'm still quite baffled by this turn of events, probably because I still find it hard to believe Eönwë is innocent (really, the wolves have been killing people who suspected him for at least three Nights in a row. What's up with that?)

(Side note: Also recalling what I said about there having to be one wolf among Brinn-Boro-Eönwë. Hmm...)

Lastly - I did the maths, what Brinn says about the innocent child is foolproof, especially with the clever qt communication plan. The innocent child will not die if they come out in this case. (Of course if they're neurotic, they can do it very late toDay and wait if a more credible counter reveal appears. But I just don't know what would be a more believable counter reveal. I mean this reveal comes with a great innocent village plan that no sane wolf would spell out loud. MAYBE this could be a brilliant wolf move if the wolves would win if we mislynched toDay. But as it is? Highly doubt it. Stellar job from Brinn either way. )

Seriously this is a bit too good to be true?! If Brinn is legit, we just won???



But yes, the innocent child has to come out for this to work. And there's no way the bad guys in the qt can mess this up either.
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