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Originally Posted by Huinesoron
1) The plague began in the east, devastating the people of Rhun and knocking out Sauron's own army. That's fine if, as Boro says, you're happy to wait a few hundred years to take advantage!
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You know I've been trying to think if Sauron did engineer the plague, with the intention of getting Gondor to withdraw their presence in Mordor, why would he start in Rhun, among the Men who later would swell his army size? Why not begin it in Gondor and Eriador, the populations he really wanted to effect? There are a few reasons I can think of...
1. Sauron didn't want to be outed at this early stage in his designs yet. Appendix B notes that in circa 1100 the Istari and Eldar believed the power that came to Dol Guldur was a Nazgul. TA 1636 the plague spreads through Gondor and if Sauron did engineer it, he still would be laying low and not wanted his enemies to know he's returned. Targeting Gondor first may have revealed Sauron was behind it before he wanted to be outed. Which leads to the 2nd reason...
2. Starting it in Rhun, would cement the growing hostilities between Rhun and Gondor, which would make them enemies for centuries. I can see Gondor blaming Rhun for where the plague originated (seeing how people have reacted to Covid-19 and thinking about
Huey's post, the Gondorians of Telemnar's time could have been squawking "Rhunavirus-36!")
Gondor recently fought the kinstrife, so from Sauron's perspective there were already enemies from the South that would be ready to oppose Gondor. In his long-term designs, "let me start a plague in Rhun to spark hostilities and ensure that Rhun and Gondor aren't allies when I'm finally ready to start my war a thousand years later."