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In my oppinion, Sauron when he made the One did already expect that the Elves would resist him and take of the Rings as soon as they saw that he could controll them through their rings with the One. Therefore he uttered the vers about dealing out the Rings to the people of Middle-Earth.
It maight have been his plan from the start, to delivere the Rings to Dwarves and Men, but I am not so sure about that. To teach the Elves the spezial lore needed to forge the Rings in a way that he could controll all the Rings with the One, even so he had not helped in the forging of all Rings, is one thing. But to decieve the Elves in a way that they thought they would forge the Rings for themself, but acually would do it for the use of other races by Saurons design seem a bit to komplicated for me. But it is not impossible. Maybe the plan was more subtile and the abilities of the Seven and the Nine were suggested by Sauron to the Elven-smiths, so that it was easy for him to dedicate them later to Dwarves and Men.
Anyhow that the Seven failed to bring the Dwarves under Saurons controll, is clear. And that Sauron gave the Rings to the Dwarves is evidence enough that he tried exactly that. So at least that part of Saurons plan failed. But why?
The offering of three Rings to Dain does cast some doubt on the failer. On the one hand the offer could be a simple lie. But then we have to consider what was offered really: Three Rings for the Dwarves when Sauron would regain the One. Maybe he couldn't controll the Dwarves but he could see what was done with the Rings (Galadriel gave withness of these talking to Frodo). So at least he would have gained a spy glass into the mind of the dwarvish ring-bearers, most likely high ranking Dwarve-Lords.
A second factor might have been that Dúrin III recieved his Ring directly from Celebrimbor and not from Sauron. Celebrimbor gave it to Dúrin for save keeping not for use, he might have provided the Dwarves with ample warning about the influence of Sauron on that Ring in particular and the Rings in general. That means in contrast to the Men that got their Rings the Dwarf-Lords of Khazad-dûm might have had a warning, what they were dealing with. And the other Dwarves that got the Rings from Sauron might have gained the warning through communication with Khazad-dûm. So maybe as did the Elves the Dwarves started using their Rings only after Sauron lost the One. Which would explain why the Rings did not work as Sauron expected.
Respectfuly
Findegil
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