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Old 11-03-2015, 11:03 PM   #22
Boromir88
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TTN's Arda Cup '15 Ultimate Guide

The Arda Cup has finally returned and The Two Towers Network's tournament analysis is going to be better than ever. We combed through all previous Arda Cups and rated every player by position and past performance. If anyone is interested in seeing the complete player ratings, shoot me a message, and I'll send the file. To publish every players' ratings would get quite tiresome and lengthy, so for the purposes of our guide, we just averaged everything out and rated the teams 1-32 in the categories of Offense, Defense, and Goalkeeping. Every year there are new players and others trying new positions, so some of the ratings are going to be guesswork (educated guesses based on the top analysts and statisticians).

*Note on the Tol-in-Gaurhoth team: The TIG team usually sees the biggest roster turnovers since various wolves and wights rotate in-and-out over the years. But their a deep community means no matter which wolf or wight makes the tournament roster, they're pretty much the same in ability and skill. So for example, this year NerWight is in the #2 FW position, and to rank her amongst all the FWs we used the stats from the #2 FW position from every previous TIG Arda Cup roster*

TTN's Preview focused on the roster moves from 2013 and how that could impact each team in 2015. This series will be our ultimate guide to the rosters, groups, and tourney predictions.

GROUP A

4th.Misty Mountains - (OFF: 20, DEF: 20, GK: 25)

Simply the weakest roster in nearly every category from the group. Group A looks like it's going to be dominated by the defenses and goal keepers. Their goalie, Chief Wolf, is ranked the 25th best goalie, which just isn't good enough compared to the rest of the group. Their best defensive player is Gwaihir, but the great Eagle never cracked the top-30 amongst defenders. There are some serious offensive deficiencies with the 2 group favorites, so the Misty Mountains will bruise up their opponents attackers. The big trouble is Gwaihir, Landroval, and Caradhras are well suited to containing aerial threats, but what are the going to do about Thranduil (Wilderland), Earendil (The Sea), and Legolas (Dwarves Utd)? You can't place the half-wit Troll on them, or they'll be playing with 10 by the intermission. They might have a chance in a poor defensive group with Durin's Bane and Azog leading the offense. Those two aren't scrubs, but there's no one else able to score. Rumil and Orophin are possession mid-fielders not scorers, and not at all creative in the attack. The defenses in this group are perfectly equipped to shutdown a rogue balrog and an orc. For not really changing their roster much, Misty Mountains took several steps back.

3rd. Wilderland (OFF: 16, DEF: 23, GK: 21)

The fight for 2nd place is extremely tough to call. Do you go with the best offensive team in the group, or 2 of top defenses in the tournament? TTN's going with the defenses, because we've rated them in the Top-6 and to break their defenses down, you need to be a great offense. Wilderland isn't, when you average all their attacking players' stats they're quite mediocre. The silver-lining is Scatha and Thranduil have had their best seasons when paired together. So perhaps they can find some old 2009-Mirkwood magic in that duo again, but I'm not seeing it. Bolg adds a 3rd scoring threat that the Misty Mountains doesn't have, but ultimately that's still not good enough to push them into even sniffing the Top-10 in offense. Wilderland's goalie situation is virtually the same as Misty Mountains, the Great Warg isn't consistent enough to give a championship performance every single match. He can be dominant in a single-match, but for a set of matches? The warg can't be relied upon unless playing behind a sturdier defense. And when it comes to their defense, Wilderland's the weakest in the group. It's hard to predict what impact newcomer Vorondil will have, but whatever impact it is, probably isn't good enough. Oropher is their best defender, but the highest rating he achieved was 33 (in 2011), and that's still worse than Gwaihir's highest (30 in 2012). Finglas and Beechbone can't even crack the top-100 when we're talking about only on average 120 defenders/per year.

2nd. Dwarves United (OFF: 28, DEF: 6, GK: 6)

I won't further beat the dead horse that is Dwarves United severe inability to score goals. That's not going to change this year, the question is are they good enough defensively to advance ahead of Wilderland and Misty Mountains? Yes. Let's start with their GK, Galadriel. Every year she puts up the numbers to be a Top-8 goalie. There was only 1 year, for an inexplicable reason she gave an awful performance and was rated 26th only saving 66.7%. The biggest criticism to Galadriel's teams is she wants to be the dominant personality and rules the team with a negative iron fist. I don't think that's a problem with Dwarves United, because she's not ruling team Lorien, she's on a team with mostly Dwarves and Ainur. Everyone knows Galadriel has a soft-spot for Dwarves, and Gandalf is one of the few people she has ever defected to. Now let's examine this defense. It's a defense that is perfectly equipped to handle the threats on Misty Mountains and Wilderland. They have a Balrog-stopper and architect to the downfall of a dragon and a fearless, tireless horse that is only better when paired with its White Rider. The weakest defender is Azaghal (and he's still rated in the Top 50% - overall 60th) and can be a compliment to handling whatever literal and figurative firepower Scatha and Durin's Bane can conjure. Then there's still Aule! As a pure defender, Aule's arguably weaker than Azaghal. A significant factor in Aule's higher rating is, as a defender he has a creative offensive mind that looks to start quick counter attacks. He's by no means a bad defender, but all we mean is he's not suited to be a primary defensive stopper. He's more balanced and has the mind to start a counter, which will fit perfectly considering Gandalf, Shadowfax, and Azaghal are better focusing on defensive responsibilities.

1st. The Sea (OFF: 17, DEF: 4, GK: 11)

Which leaves The Sea as TTN's Group A winners. In the group stage, you know in the previous 6 Arda Cups, Ulmo's team was only beaten once? I didn't stutter. ONE TIME (in just strictly the group stage) has Ulmo's team fallen. A record of 8 wins, 9 draws, 1 loss in group stage matches. Bottomline is Ulmo's teams are insanely tough to beat in the group. The problem with The Sea lately is despite putting up superior stats and not LOSING, they inexplicably get bounced out of tournaments early, or can't get out of their group because there is a lack of spirit to play to win. There's been an aura of nonchalance and carelessness in The Sea's performance. They just don't seem to have the proper motivation to advance, despite having superior talent and statistically dominant (particularly when it comes to defense). It's a blessing they always remain cool and professional, but also a curse because they never achieve that passion and will to win. There's no reason The Sea shouldn't take 1st place in this group, even when you consider they won't have any desperate motivations to win it. They just shouldn't be beat by of the rosters from a lesser age. ArdaCup.com was quite bold in calling Ulmo the 3rd highest overpaid player. There is some validity in how Ulmo hasn't delivered in terms of results since 2010, but there has been a little arm-twisting in the stats. Ulmo always has one of the stingiest defenses, but ArdaCup.com just looks at the goals against as their defensive rating, and that's a bit deceptive. You have to factor in the goalkeeper as well, and Voronwe was a big problem for The Sea in 2012. Hyarmendacil (TTN rates 11th GK this year) is a significan improvement. You also have to factor in Ulmo was likely contributing too much to the offense in order to score enough goals. Signing Earendil, and letting the reigns loose on Osse to create their offense (plus still keeping some sturdy Numenoreans) should mean Ulmo can return to what he does best, focusing on defense.
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