[Aiwendil]

As you might expect, we were a rather talkative pack of wolves, no less during the Night than the Day. What follows has been mercilessly edited, though I fear it's still rather long.

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Wolf

Greetings, fellow Wolves.

My own intention, during the Day, will be to try to post just as I would as an innocent villager. How convincingly I will be able to pull that off I just don’t know. I don’t see any need for a fixed strategy on Day 1, as we will need to react to circumstances as they develop. Best thing is to try to act just as we do when we are innocents (which means lengthy, wordy posts from me). In light of this, we should not be averse to casting suspicion on one another, although not so strongly that it forms the basis of a bandwaggon.

We should try not to be decisive in the lynching of an innocent. That doesn’t mean we should avoid voting for the person who ends up getting lynched, but we should make sure that there are enough other innocents there to cover us. I suppose that we should try to spread our votes, although I don't think it matters too much if two of us occasionally vote for the same person. We just need to avoid giving rise to recognisable patterns. I would also recommend avoiding “throwaway” votes, particularly towards the end of voting, that look like safe Wolfish votes. We should aim not to all vote around the same time, although one of us at least should probably be around towards the end of voting. Perhaps we could try to alternate this, although not obviously so. I will usually have to vote by around 8pm GMT, although there may be days when I can stay around later (not Day 1).

On Nightly killings, there are a lot of respected, experienced players in this game. But the longer the three of us stay alive while other respected players are dying around us, the more suspicious we will look. I would therefore not necessarily advocate killing off the strong players, not all of them anyway, unless we think we have spotted a Gifted. The good thing is that few will expect three experienced and generally vocal players to be the Wolves. We may be able to manipulate the lynching of a few of the quieter ones, though we will want to keep some around.

Keep a look out for the Seer on Day 1. Our reputations are such that the chances are one or more of us will be dreamed of in the first few days. We may be able to spot the Seer early because of this. Luckily, the village has a False Seer, which should work in our favour and mitigate the fact that we are prime dream candidates. The True Seer will not be sure that his or her dreams are correct until the False Seer dies, so we want to try to keep the False Seer around at least until the True Seer is dead. Once the True Seer is out of the way, it may be worth going for the False Seer on the basis that the information he or she has will still be useful to the village.

We need to keep an eye out for the possibility of a Wolf sacrifice at some point, especially if we think that (in the absence of the False Seer) the True Seer has spotted one of us and/or it looks like one of us is going to get lynched anyway. I have no objection to being sacrificed for the good of the pack, should the circumstances indicate that it would be the best thing to do. But that is probably something to consider later in the game. In the meantime, Wolf on Wolf votes are probably worth considering, if we can get away with them. Although, having said that, the more experienced villagers will be alive to that sort of thing.

Originally Posted by Eomer

It will be an honour to wolf with you two.

I can't believe I'm a wolf again...

SPM has it right (why do I think you're extremely excited and nervous about finally being a wolf?) Problem is, there is such a fear among Barrowdowns Werewolf players in general about you being a wolf that many want to lynch you anyway! Your logical posts, however, will assure that you have at least some friends in the village.

Aiwendil, I am not familiar with your style of play. Are you a loudmouth also? What a talkative, irksome Wolf team we shall be!

I get the feeling that no-one will believe that I could possibly be a wolf again and so will give me the benefit of the doubt. The Seers will not bother dreaming about me and I will last 'til the end. (I hope.)

Remember the wise words of that most brilliant wolf, the phantom. Never lie. In the game of werewolf, everything can look suspicious. People will suspect us sooner or later, but when that time comes, play it cool.

Originally Posted by Ngaurondil

If I had been innocent this game, I was going to start out by asking some open-ended general strategy questions in the interest of provoking serious discussion and gauging responses. It occurs to me that it still might be useful to do this, as it would 1. possibly provoke some hints from the Gifteds and 2. allow us to play the 'helpful villager' role right away.

The other matter that needs some thought is just how bold we're willing to be with wolf vs. wolf votes. A sacrifice might well be in order at some point; a decisive vote against a wolf generally gives one a free pass for most of the game. I would be quite willing to be the victim if necessary. Of course, it's a bit early to be thinking about intentional sacrifices. My feeling about wolf vs. wolf votes in general is that we should not be too skittish about them unless there is a severe threat to the potential victim already.

The presence of a false seer allows one tactic that we might want to keep in mind for a moment of desperation. Normally, if one falsely declares oneself to be Gifted, the bluff is rather short-lived, as the real Gifted will simply come forward and announce the fraud. But in this village we have two 'seer's, neither of whom knows the identity of the other. So if one of us is in trouble, a declaration 'I am a Seer; I don't know whether I'm the true Seer or not, but I'd advise not killing me' may well be effective. Just something to keep in mind.

As far as nightly killings go: I for one have never understood the attitude that some wolves take, where they seem to want to do their utmost to 'confuse the villagers'. More often than not, this means killing a villager who is attracting suspicion and is therefore not expected to die. I, for one, see no particular value in confusing the villagers. I say we keep those who are attracting suspicion alive and well and kill off those who are deemed likely innocent or who, for any reason, aren't likely to be lynched during the Day.

Well, those are my thoughts for now.

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Wolf

The “standard” policy is for villagers to decide to keep the more vocal and analytical players around for a while on the basis that, if they are not Wolves, they will benefit the village. So that might stand us in good stead at the beginning. I generally come under serious suspicion on Day 3 or 4, by which time people are starting to wonder why I am still around and I start getting accused of trying to control the village - particularly if I have participated in the lynching of a few innocents by that stage (which I usually have).

I think that you should do that. It will be interesting to see how people react, although be careful that you do not come under suspicion for trying to steer the discussion into an argument over strategy rather than suspects, since that can look Wolfish (although generally, in the past, it has turned out not to have been).

One further point to bear in mind. Remember that the Ranger and the Hunter know who each other are and can communicate during the day. This has its dangers for us, but also its advantages. When one is killed, we may be able to spot the other (or a likely pool of others) from the discussion and voting record).

Well, if we do not speak again before the Day starts, good luck to you both.

And remember … be careful out there.