[Kuruharan]

...or put on your armor.

Given the age of this forum, I'm a bit surprised that there hasn't been an in-depth treatment of this topic before.

This topic is complicated by our (relative...especially in terms of Western Europe) lack of primary world sources documenting the size of medieval armies.

I will also state at the top that one of my criticisms of Tolkien's writing is how underpopulated Middle earth is.

Originally Posted by Mithadan

Second, it seems to me that Men might be the smallest component of the army of the Last Alliance, likely outnumbered by Elves and probably by Dwarves (and yes I recall that some Dwarves may have fought on the side of Sauron).

-and-

Originally Posted by William Cloud Hicklin

Gondor was already populous when the Exiles arrived; both Numenorean colonists in Belfalas and at Pelargir, and a substantial native folk, of whom the men of the Dwimorberg were only a portion; the Frodo-era men of Lebennin, Lossarnach etc etc etc were descended from Men who long predated the Numenoreans, and then there were the ancestors of the Dunlendings in Calenardhon. These, I am sure, made up a large part of the brothers' forces, perhaps even a majority (there couldn't have been all that many Faithful aboard their ships!)

Those who were Númenóreans du sang had to have been one of the smallest groups in the war. My thought is that the human forces, either Númenórean subordinates or allies, were probably either the largest or second largest total contingent. It is entirely plausible that the elves may have been the largest group, so we will say that they were for this post.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

-I would say Men likely made up more than dwarves

I definitely agree with this.

Moving to concrete numbers, let us look at the few times in LotR where Tolkien gives us concrete(ish) numbers.

The first one is the number of Saruman's forces at the Battle of the Hornburg, which was approximately 10,000. They were faced initially by 2,000 Rohirrim defenders, with a reinforcement of 1,000 later on.

The next is the Rohirrim that set off with Théoden for the campaign, which was 6,000.

The southern fiefs stated presence at Minas Tirith was 2,000, although Tolkien states in the text that this was not the sum total provided.

Lastly, 7,000 left Minas Tirith with Aragorn. 1,000 of those were left to re-take Cair Andros. 6,000 Gondorians and Rohirrim faced at least 60,000 assorted Sauronic troops.

These numbers are probably significantly larger than most armies in Western Europe, and specifically in the British Isles, in the Early Middle Ages, very much the background of Middle earth. For example, the Great Heathen Army that conquered half of modern England and parts of modern Scotland in just a few years was probably in the low thousands at most. This begs an interesting question of setting, in a way. This is only about a tenth of the size of armies that were deployed by the Eastern Romans, Franks, Lombards, and Goths in Southern Europe at this time. It was also only about a tenth or less of the size of armies that the Eastern Romans, Sassanids, and various Muslim armies (Umayyads, Abbasids, Fatimids, etc.) deployed on their larger campaigns.

Given the slightly larger numbers stated in The Return of the King I think we can be comfortable doing this little numerical exploration without confining ourselves to a strict comparison to Early Middle Ages Western Europe.

However, something that I think we need to utilize to constrain our is the question of logistics.

Armies, even comparatively small ones, require large amounts of food and supplies to keep them running. This is accentuated by armies with a cavalry corps…which I’m not sure that we technically know that cavalry were present, but I think it is a safe assumption. This greatly limits the number of troops that can be congregated into an army at a single location for a long period of time and the number of troops that can be employed in a siege.

Given this, and the likely inability of the Last Alliance to live off the land (especially not for seven years), requiring a long supply line and the necessity of detachments to guard those lines probably reduces the number of potential combatants…or perhaps it increases it because of the need to expand the numbers to guard those supply lines? Also, unlike the Siege of Troy, the supplies had to be brought completely overland. (Probably just best to admit at this point that this whole episode is not one of the more plausible pieces of Tolkien’s writing…)

Of course, the other question is how did Sauron manage to feed his forces for seven years during the siege? Perhaps, due to lack of numbers, the Dark Tower was not completely cut off and provisions were able to still get in to some extent. The way it is described it implies that lack of supplies was what finally forced Sauron out to fight in the field again so a blockade of some sort of must have been effective in the end. Given the fact that the majority of the besieged Sauronic forces were orcs, cannibalism was probably employed, as it has been in sieges throughout history in the real world, although perhaps the orcs did it on a more systemic basis. However, at a certain point that does become self-defeating…and maybe that was the moment Sauron emerged.

Another question that must be considered is exactly how “splendid” armies in the First and Second Ages were compared to the stated numbers we have for the Third.

The War of Wrath is probably not a good reference point (did the Valar even need to feed their troops..? How were Morgoth’s armies fed..?)

The Second Age itself is probably best used as the point of comparison. Given the logistical challenges present I have a hard time believing that the raw numbers involved could have been much different between the Second and Third Ages. My supposition is that Sauron’s forces deserted him when faced with full Númenórean might not so much because of the numbers involved (because Sauron’s were probably more numerous) but because of the evident technological and tactical superiority of the Númenórean army.

So, what do I think the numbers looked like in the Battle of Dagorlad?

I’m going to start with the Sauronic forces because those are, in a way, easier.

Total: 100,000

Why 100,000 you ask? Well, it is a nice, round, large number. It also is a good bit larger than his inferred forces of 60,000+ at the Black Gates at the end of the Third Age. Also, at the Black Gates, Sauron did not have his full forces there. There were forces besieging Erebor, and attacking the Woodland Realm and Lorien. My belief is that Dagorlad was as complete a concentration of his combat power as was possible for him to achieve.

Orcs: 55,000
Evil Men: 40,000
Dwarves: 5,000 – this feels too large, but we will go with it.

I’m not going to count Wargs as a separate category as I’m going to infer that Wargs were the steed of the orcish cavalry and thus are counted under the orc total.

Last Alliance Total: 80,000

Elves: 40,000
Men: 30,000 – of these Men probably no more than 3-5,000 were proper Númenóreans and even that number feels a little high.
Dwarves: 10,000 – this number feels a little high to me too, but 5,000 feels too small. This was taking place not far from the Longbeard’s homeland and they were probably much more committed to this than the representatives of the distant eastern houses who were probably only there as the result of exorbitant bribery.

Siege of Barad-dûr

Sauron Total: 30,000

Seems plausible that Sauron would have lost half to two-thirds of his forces. The losses would have to be substantial and crippling to enable the Last Alliance to pursue into inhospitable country to set up a siege.

Last Alliance Total: 60,000

This is still pretty heavy losses for the victorious side, but the number may still be too high. I believe the Last Alliance had to outnumber the Sauronic forces by this point to at least some degree to be able to maintain anything approaching an effective siege.

Battle of Mount Doom

Sauron Total: 10,000
Last Alliance Total: 40,000

I think at this point the assumption should be that the Last Alliance substantially outnumbered the Sauronic forces due to canni...I mean attrition.