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Originally Posted by Nogrod
2. How Boro's important point was totally lost under a more or less odd discussion of whether the maniac is playing for the goodies or baddies... where the former, I think, was the obvious answer - and seems to be it. But what Boro said merits repeating: as we don't want to lynch the maniac (the danger for us is in lynching her/him) but want her/him killed by the wolves by Night (to take one of them with her/him for sure) - the wolves might like to impersonate the maniac trying to avoid lynching that way.
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Since the Maniac's role pretty much revolves around dying to fullfill the role, who is to say they'll align with the village? A hunter can at least chose who they think is evil, Maniac is subject to the whims of the mod-god.
I kind of see the Maniac as a potential cobbler/hunter hybrid, a wildcard as Boro put it.
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Originally Posted by Lommy
Wouldn't it make the most sense for the maniac to reveal RIGHT NOW?
Ta da, we have a known innocent. Or, if a wolf rises to the bait and fake reveals, the worst thing that can happen is that toDay we lynch two innocents and toMorrow we lynch a wolf, which is still a good scenario for us.
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Interesting...
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Originally Posted by Lommy
To clarify, by "toDay we lynch two innocents" I mean that we lynch an innocent who takes another innocent with him/her - and by the way the maniac might even take a wolf with him/her. (Now that I'm thinking a little further I'm also aware the maniac could take the seer or ranger with him/her too but personally I think it would be worth the risk because we'd still get one wolf down.)
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I don't know if this guarantees us a wolf lynch on Day 2 though. Say our Maniac reveals and is not believed and lynched. We lose three innocents before Day 2 starts. And there's only twelve villagers right?
But if the Maniac's reveal is believed we do have a known innocent. And in such a small village it could be dangerous to wait for a known innocent to appear.
I'd say the risks and the reward on this plan are probably about equal.